Isn't it easier to find a 2 WAR player at first base?
GDT: 5/31, Braves @ Giants; Day Off For Freeman
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
Isn't it easier to find a 2 WAR player at first base?
chop2chip
Well-known member
The Red Sox got a pitcher that would be our top pitching prospect from the Orioles for 2 months of Andrew Miller. This happened last year.
And that turned out to be an awful deal for the Orioles. Not sure why teams don't learn.
chop2chip
Well-known member
But! That's not to say the Braves lost the trade.
Including Mallex, Jace, DP, and Fried more than make that a fair trade. You're the one that has, again, ventured out into lala land with an idiotic proclamation that was wholly unnecessary.
chop2chip
Well-known member
You're assumption that they do learn is why the comment was wrong.
In a competitive market the Braves could get a player whose ceiling was higher than 3 WAR a season.
I don't see how this is not a valid question based on what Jace Peterson has shown so far.
Assuming Upton was not resigning how much value does Jace need to provide to match one year of Upton plus a supplemental first rounder?
You aren't really understanding the concept of WAR. WAR accounts for position. Though, there are certainly times when positions are "better" than others. For example, the combined WAR for 1B since 2010 is 283. For 2B, it's 373. In the last 5 years, a 2 WAR 2B has been more prevalent than a 2 WAR 1B. You have to hit the **** out of the ball to be a 2 WAR 1B. If you have a glove that isn't broke and you get 600 at bats, you can be a 2 WAR 2B.
I was just looking at it this season and last and it seemed ther ewere more players at first base who reached that threshold.
chop2chip
Well-known member
That's not the argument. The argument was would you trade Jace for Upton. I would because you could take Upton and trade him for something much better than Jace.
That wasn't the argument. I posed the question of using what we know now would Jace Peterson been a fair exchange for Upton.
Based on the results I think you could make the case that he will provide as much value if not more than 1 year of Upton and a Supplemental pick.
You are saying you could trade for another top prospect who still has to prove it at hte major league level. Of course Jaces two months doesn't "prove" anything but 2 months at hte big leagues is better than 0 months.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Using this logic then the selling team always wins because any player is worth more than 0 months.
weso1
<B>Clique Leader</B>
Peterson is more likely to reach his projected WAR though, since it is mostly based on defense. If Upton puts up a WAR above 3.5 it will only be for the second time (bref). If Jace indeed puts up a 3 WAR then he'll be pretty close to J Up's median WAR. Think about that for a second.
sturg33
I
I don't like the argument of using cumualitve WAR over 6 years to compare against the WAR of 1 year.
Justin looks like a 4-5 WAR player. I would never trade him for a consistent 1 WAR player... but your argument is that the 1 WAR player is more valuable because he gave us 6 WAR while Justin only gave us 5.
You're totally discounting a lot of elements - like the value of a STUD in ONE season - what the can do for a team. Or the replacement value of someone. It's not that hard for me to find a 1 WAR player... but it's REALLY hard for me to find a 5 WAR player
Justin looks like a 4-5 WAR player. I would never trade him for a consistent 1 WAR player... but your argument is that the 1 WAR player is more valuable because he gave us 6 WAR while Justin only gave us 5.
You're totally discounting a lot of elements - like the value of a STUD in ONE season - what the can do for a team. Or the replacement value of someone. It's not that hard for me to find a 1 WAR player... but it's REALLY hard for me to find a 5 WAR player
Because you overrate the value of prospects (Braves ones in particular). Teams are going to continue to do this because they have plenty of prospects and prospects have high busts rates. People focus on the few deals where the prospect turns into John Smoltz, but no one remembers who the Braves traded to acquire McGriff (Moore, Elliot, Nieves) or others like that. The one thing Bill Shanks had half a brain on is the purposes of prospects. Its all about risk management. When you trade for Upton, you have to trade for prospects that sum up as having a higher perceived upside than Upton; but the chances of that happening aren't 100%. They might not even be 50%.
Im not going to go on about this if you really believe this to be true. Its so far from reality, it's really a waste of our time.
My original argument was always to discount Jace's WAR. Not sure how to determine the appropriate discount factor however. Since 2012 Upton has had 1 season at 4 WAR and it was exactly 4 WAR. Thats what he looks to be at this point. So far Jace looks like he could be anywhere from a 1.5-2.5 guy. If he does that for 6 years and has a cumulative WAR of 9-15 then regardless of the discount factor I think it comes out with the Braves on top.
Of course, at the time of a deal this is what is going to happen.
I prefaced the whole argument saying that I am using hindsight.
At the time of the deal I was happy with Jace but was more excited with Mallex and Fried. I thought it was a fair deal at the time it was made.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
And thethe just proved he doesen't understand WAR.
WAR adjusts for position. You're confusing offensive position scarcity. The reason why Andruw gets paid more for an .800 OPS in CF than a 1B does for .850. Because of adjusting for the position WAR takes most of that into account. Not perfectly. Last year qualified players, there were 13 1B with a 2 WAR or higher, there were 11 2B. An insignificant difference. The only reason it's easier to find more 2.0 fWAR players at 1B is health. 2B is one of those positions that players often get hurt at so there are usually less qualified 2B.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
And if he flames out and produces 0 WAR then we come out looking bad. There's a reason you trade several prospects for a proven player, and it has to do with burn out.