GDT 5-31: MR. CHARLIE TOLD ME SO

msstate7 said:
I wasnt predicting that would be the fWAR for any of those guys. That's just their current pace. The current pace is an accurate snap shot of how they compare at the moment. I even added that I figure they'll all be similar at the end.
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Why is current pace an accurate snapshot? It doesn’t normalize luck.
A 1 WAR difference isn’t that significant because there is a lot of randomness, especially when the value is baserunning and defense driven.
 
chop2chip said:
Why is current pace an accurate snapshot? It doesn’t normalize luck.
A 1 WAR difference isn’t that significant because there is a lot of randomness, especially when the value is baserunning and defense driven.
Click to expand...

I'm sure if it was like this, that you would be selling them as having equal seasons....

Olson 2.9 fWAR
Goldy 2.2
FF 1.2

Be honest with yourself, would you say FF and Goldy had been just as good?

BTW, I think you reading zips incorrectly. Look at the games tab on left. Take that number and subtract from 162, and you get ~ the number of games they've played. The zips number is what they predict for the rest of the season, not the total for the season

Using zips, season totals would be...
Goldy 5.9
FF 6.4
Olson 5.0
 
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Ozzie Swanson said:
At this point do you just stick Contreras in LF every day he's not catching? Defense is atrocious at that spot anyways.
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Not sure, but every day Contreras's bat isn't in the lineup is a day of exhibited stupidity. (Btw...his catching had been dramatically improved from the eyeball test).
 
msstate7 said:
I'm sure if it was like this, that you would be selling them as having equal seasons....

Olson 2.9 fWAR
Goldy 2.2
FF 1.2

Be honest with yourself, would you say FF and Goldy had been just as good?

BTW, I think you reading zips incorrectly. Look at the games tab on left. Take that number and subtract from 162, and you get ~ the number of games they've played. The zips number is what they predict for the rest of the season, not the total for the season

Using zips, season totals would be...
Goldy 5.9
FF 6.4
Olson 5.0
Click to expand...

If Olson and Freeman were hitting approximately the same, I would question the sample size of the defensive and baserunning values. We know with several seasons worth of data that Olson is a better defender and Freeman the better base runner. The combined difference between the two a wash

I specified I was using “ROS WAR” as in rest of season. For predictive purposes I didn’t think it mattered much to compare banked WAR. ZiPs does that already by considering recent performance.
 
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chop2chip said:
If Olson and Freeman were hitting approximately the same, I would question the sample size of the defensive and baserunning values. We know with several seasons worth of data that Olson is a better defender and Freeman the better base runner. The combined difference between the two a wash

I specified I was using “ROS WAR” as in rest of season. For predictive purposes I didn’t think it mattered much to compare banked WAR. ZiPs does that already by considering recent performance.
Click to expand...

But how does the “dog in him” compare between the two?
 
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