zbhargrove
Well-known member
No you keep acting like people were saying he was going to be some all world player when no one was. He’s a solid shortstop for a stacked team. That’s all we need for an 8th/9th hole hitter. I guess Arcia can’t slump.
GDT 6/2/23: Braves @ Snakes - Showdown in the desert
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
No you keep acting like people were saying he was going to be some all world player when no one was. He’s a solid shortstop for a stacked team. That’s all we need for an 8th/9th hole hitter. I guess Arcia can’t slump.
First of the season. The back injury occurred on April 6th.
striker42
Well-known member
Lots of weird victory laps were taken by his supporters when Arcia was insanely hot and lucky. You can't expect his doubters to sit meekly by when he faceplants.
You call this a slump but Arcia has actually been lucky over his last 50 PAs according to his BABIP. The Arcia we're seeing is far closer to his career norms than the guy we saw the first 6 weeks of the season. This doesn't look like a slump, it looks like regression.
The odds that Arcia was suddenly a different player are remote. It's always been far, far more likely he'll end the season close to career norms.
striker42
Well-known member
No one said he would be all world. Lots seemed to think he fixed his swing and was now an above average SS.
It's not that he can't slump. It's that what we're seeing now is classic regression. Why was anyone thinking he was suddenly significantly better than the guy who took his last 1,000 PAs?
I wouldn't be saying a peep of people had been saying we should enjoy Arcia while he lasts and expecting him to regress to career norms. But people didn't say that.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Am 832 ops is regressing ?
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I would take 9 Arcia’s versus 1 LHH Ozzie. They need to call up shew again and let Ozzie know he won’t play again versus a RHP until he stops this bull**** weak lefty hitting.
I mean it is sad that I knew from the first inning that this team can’t score more than 3 runs. There is not a single plan that a hitter has. Just go up and swing hard and pray for the best. Twit just sits there and lets the players do what they want cause they know they will be playing tomorrow. He just naps in the dugout dreaming about what dress coat he is going to buy next while seltzer water tells the next guy to swing harder in case he makes contact.
I mean it is sad that I knew from the first inning that this team can’t score more than 3 runs. There is not a single plan that a hitter has. Just go up and swing hard and pray for the best. Twit just sits there and lets the players do what they want cause they know they will be playing tomorrow. He just naps in the dugout dreaming about what dress coat he is going to buy next while seltzer water tells the next guy to swing harder in case he makes contact.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Damn... Arcia must have poked striker's mom or something...
striker42
Well-known member
He's regressing. He's not regressed fully to the mean yet.
Over his last 52 PAs he has an OPS of .573. This is in spite of a BABIP of .333. His wOBA over this time is just .262 and his EV is 86.5.
Now let's look at his career numbers in over 2000 PAs. His career OPS is .674 and his career wOBA is .290. His average EV over his career is 87.6.
What he's done recently is way more in line with his career norms than the .997 OPS hitter with a 92 EV we saw up to that point.
Arcia isn't the worst of our problems but he's not the hitter a lot of people here thought he was 3 weeks ago.
msstate7
Well-known member
https://twitter.com/dobrienatl/status/1664745204237074435?s=46&t=Or6q-cf38Bgqphp2LQd9zA
Might be time to send Harris down for a while.
Might be time to send Harris down for a while.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
A lot of things going on with Harris. The injuries haven't helped, but--and everyone knows this is a common theme with me--he was rushed up last season and although he performed magnificently in 2022, baseball is a game of adjustments and when old-fashioned eyeball scouting is augmented with the technological tools teams now use, players' weaknesses can be readily recognized and exploited. I think his glove is going to carry, but he's going to have to make adjustments on the offensive side of the equation and it's tougher to do that at the major league level.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Just saw the replay on the Riley double where Olson was thrown out on the basepaths. For those who watched live, who was to blame: Olson or Washington? Great play on the carom by the LF and I think Olson would have been out by 20 feet had he kept going. That said, did Washington put Olson in no-man's-land?
Lol. So desperate to be right. What kind of hitter did people think he was? He’s an average-ish hitter. His last 52 PAs don’t mean he isn’t just like his previous 52 PAs didn’t make him a stud.
You can continue to argue with yourself though. It’s just weird.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Yeah, it was all on Wash... he was waving him enthusiastically the whole time and basically threw up the stop sign right as Olson was already rounding 3rd.
striker42
Well-known member
One thing DOB left out is Harris's .167 BABIP during those 45 PAs. If you normalize his luck he's still not doing great but it's not as bleak as it seems.
I do think it's pretty clear Harris isn't 100%. Back injuries linger and linger and linger. I would shut him down for 6 weeks and let him heal up. We'll need him in the second half.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
There is a time and place for letting a guy figure it out and then there is Harris. He and Ozzie are crushing the team and some how Twit has them perfectly spread out that they both can kill rallies every inning this putrid offense can actually have one. There are so many under performing guys in this lineup that they are just not fun to watch. It is a shame, because the starters have been the best thing on this team and what was supposed to be a strong point is getting exposed. I know Acuan/Murphy/Olson will be fine. Riley will be unplayable for long stretches then look slightly above replacement for other stretches.. Ozuna and Rasorryio will have games that give Twit a boner, but they will still be negative players. Ozzie will keep hitting left handed and continue to kill rallies and Harris will keep getting sent out because we don't want to hurt his feelings... So it is what it is and we can just enjoy the ruterless ship as it drifts for the first round playoff loss.
msstate7
Well-known member
Going hard today. Haven't even checked in Airbnb yet. If the braves lose tonight, it won't be bc I didn't inhale as much coors light as my liver (or wife) can handle
In spite of his time missed Arcia has been the 6th most valuable Brave this season by fWAR trailing only Acuna Murphy Strider Olson and Elder. At the rate he's going he's gonna end the season between 3-4 fWAR.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
One can’t assume war only goes in one direction. Arica could easily end with half a war by end of season.