GDT: 6/6 Braves at Padres

Enscheff said:
Newk is pitching as good or better than Folty, mostly due to a superior GB rate. That much is clear.

However, Newk also has much farther to regress when that 4.9% HR/FB value decides to normalize.

Folty's 8.6% value is low, but not obscenely low, and his elevated K rate has helped tamp down his HR/9 so far. Newk is simply getting lucky on FBs not leaving the park.
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xHR/9 doesn't exist, but I can use xSLG off pitchers.

xSLG off Newcomb: .302 Actual: .283

That's really not that big of a difference. Same with xwOBA->wOBA.

Who knows if either continues, but that's better than you may think and suggest that the "regression" coming isn't dire.

NO, he's not a mid 2's ERA pitcher, but I'd rather not cherry pick stats in proving a point, I'd rather use everything.
 
Padres pen is really good, even though they're bad.

I don't know why people were saying that this was a "must win". With how good the Padres pen is, I'd have rather seen a spot starter then them. It's going to be a very difficult game.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
xHR/9 doesn't exist, but I can use xSLG off pitchers.

xSLG off Newcomb: .302 Actual: .283

That's really not that big of a difference. Same with xwOBA->wOBA.

Who knows if either continues, but that's better than you may think and suggest that the "regression" coming isn't dire.

NO, he's not a mid 2's ERA pitcher, but I'd rather not cherry pick stats in proving a point, I'd rather use everything.
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His 4.9% HR/FB rate isn't really related to xSLG at all...

It's not cherry picking stats, it's understanding what the stats represent.

Newk will not maintain anything close to a 4.9% HR/FB rate. I'm willing to bet anything Newk's rate rises more than Folty's rate by the end of the season.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Padres pen is really good.

I don't know why people were saying that this was a "must win". With how good the Padres pen is, I'd have rather seen a spot starter then them. It's going to be a very difficult game.
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It is a must win. Against one of the worst teams in the league. If we have playoff hopes we can't lose series like this.
 
Enscheff said:
His 4.9% HR/FB rate isn't really related to xSLG at all...

It's not cherry picking stats, it's understanding what the stats represent.

Newk will not maintain anything close to a 4.9% HR/FB rate. I'm willing to bet anything Newk's rate rises more than Folty's rate by the end of the season.
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Sorry, but just quoting xFIP does sound like cherry picking stats to me. Please use everything. Kthx.
 
NYCBrave said:
It is a must win. Against one of the worst teams in the league. If we have playoff hopes we can't lose series like this.
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Already swept by the Giants, split vs the Reds... But 36-25.

I'm not buying it. 2013 got swept by the Padres on the road and won a whopping...96 games. Braves already did more vs the Padres at SD than normal for them.
 
Enscheff said:
LOL, I this is the first time I've typed xFIP in this thread...

Please teach me how to analyze and project player performance.
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To me, picking one of the predictive stats, the worst one, is just cherry picking stats. It's convenient it's the one that normalizes for HRs, but still.

Using just one and it's cherry picking to me.
 
Never understood why Freeman catches pick off throws 5' in front of the base, as if he can tag faster than Folty can throw...
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
To me, picking one of the predictive stats, the worst one, is just cherry picking stats. It's convenient it's the one that normalizes for HRs, but still.

Using just one and it's cherry picking to me.
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Ummm....

There are like 3 things that indicate luck....

BABIP, HR/FB and LOB%.

If a guy is succeeding/failing due to one of those stats being unsustainable, it's a safe bet to assume they will regress (positively or negatively).

Again, it's not cherry picking...it's understanding.
 
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