GDT 6-6: The Krewe of Magical Elderberries Rides Again

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If we want to get Harris going we'll need to separate him from Arcia in the order because Arcia is clearly a luck vampire that is feeding off Harris' luck.

Last night, Arcia's big single was hit just 55 MPH with a .120 xBA. Harris had a 105 MPH lineout with a .720 xBA.

Arcia is sporting a .346 BABIP this year, 67 points above his career line. Harris has a BABIP of .212, over 100 points off his line from last year.

It's indisputable proof. Luck vampire.
 
striker42 said:
If we want to get Harris going we'll need to separate him from Arcia in the order because Arcia is clearly a luck vampire that is feeding off Harris' luck.

Last night, Arcia's big single was hit just 55 MPH with a .120 xBA. Harris had a 105 MPH lineout with a .720 xBA.

Arcia is sporting a .346 BABIP this year, 67 points above his career line. Harris has a BABIP of .212, over 100 points off his line from last year.

It's indisputable proof. Luck vampire.
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Elder rebounding after those homers and not allowing anything else is very impressive. Still no clue how he continues to get it done but hey
 
Super said:
Elder rebounding after those homers and not allowing anything else is very impressive. Still no clue how he continues to get it done but hey
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Seriously. His EV numbers aren't great and his K numbers are okay but hardly elite l. You'd expect him to be lucky and while he has been he hasn't been THAT lucky.

.285 BABIP isn't far from sustainable, HR/FB of 12% isnt crazy. xFIP is 3.65 which is almost a point and a half over his current ERA but still a very respectable number.

My best guess is his key to success is keeping the ball on the ground and not walking many so the hits that do come aren't as damaging.
 
striker42 said:
Go back in time and tell this to those taking constant and incessant victory laps when Arcia was the hottest guy on the planet. I haven't posted much in days. That was a nightly ritual in April.
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I mean you were taking victory laps every time he didn’t have a good game, so it was just being thrown back. Not a single person thought that was the real Arcia. He’s better than you thought he’d be, which is fine, it’s just weird to continue to hammer on it as if you were right.
 
I agree with Super... I love the come back win, but Elder shaking that inning off and giving the team 6 innings was impressive. Can you imagine Folty in that situation. It would have been 10 runs before a guy could get warmed up.
 
I’ve upgraded my elder projection to say he’s probably a 3.5 era true talent….but that is really good.

I still think he’s a guy you play out team control on and let him walk. I don’t see him as an extension guy.

But maybe he’ll keep progressing
 
Super said:
I mean you were taking victory laps every time he didn’t have a good game, so it was just being thrown back. Not a single person thought that was the real Arcia. He’s better than you thought he’d be, which is fine, it’s just weird to continue to hammer on it as if you were right.
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I took very few victory laps because there were few to take. Guy came out of the gate on fire and people were very quick to point out that my predictions that Arcia would be terrible were wrong. No body thought Arcia was 6 win SS but a lot of people were seriously entertaining the idea he had fixed his swing and was a 4 win SS and even more convinced he was a 3 WAR guy.

We'll see how the year goes. I doubt he'll be replaced unless his defense collapses which is unlikely. Especially considering our needs in LF, the rotation, and the pen. Our resources will go elsewhere as they should.

I will say this, my original post was as much to highlight Harris' bad luck as Arcia's good luck. Harris has had multiple 100+ MPH outs here lately. Dude's snakebit.
 
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