GDT 6/9/24: Braves @ Nationals - Waldrep makes his debut

As a fan of the braves, saints, and miss state, this is usually the only time of the year that I can really enjoy my teams. The braves have somehow become the most disappointing of my teams, and that's really unacceptable for the talent on this team. Fire seitzer today to try and wake this sleeping team up
 
Okay, let's use actual facts instead of feelings. Gonna throw a lot of numbers at people but it's important to compare/contrast and understand what is actually happening.

2023 - The Braves saw 48.2% of pitches in the zone and swung at 70.9% of them. They made contact 81% of the time. They swung at first pitches 33% of the time, swung at "meatballs" 7.3% of the time and made contact with those 80.4% of the time.

2024 - The Braves have seen 49.4% of pitches in the zone (1.2% increase) and swung at 73.1% of them (2.2% increase). They have made contact 79.4% of time (1.6% decrease). They are swinging at first pitches 37.2% of the time (4.2% increase). They are seeing meatballs 7.4% of the time (0.1% increase) and making contact 81.2% of the time (0.8% increase).

Overall, largely the same. More pitches in the zone means more swings in the zone. Contact has gone down slightly but with all of the replacement players the Braves have had, that's not really a huge surprise nor do I think it's a large enough number to care about. Now let's look at chase rate.

2023 - The Braves chased 30% of the time and made contact when chasing 60.1% of the time.

2024 - The Braves have chased 29.1% of the time (0.9% decrease) and made contact 55.5% of the time (4.6% decrease).

So the 2024 Braves are chasing slightly less but making way less contact when they do.

So what kind of contact are the Braves making when they do make contact? Let's find out.

2024 batted ball profile - GB 43.2% ( 3.5% decrease), FB 26% (1.8% increase), LD 24% (0.2% decrease), PU 6.8% (1.2% increase). Pull 42.3% (5% increase), Straight 34.6% (0.4% decrease), Oppo 23.1% (4.5% decrease). Weak 3.2% (1.3% decrease), Topped 31.9% (2.3% decrease), Under 24.5% (2% increase), Flare 22.8% (2.4% decrease), Solid 8.1% (2% increase), LA sweet spot 33.8% (0.2% decrease), Barrel 9.3% (2.1% increase)

The Braves are hitting slightly more flyballs, pulling the ball a little more, making way better contact and perfect contact. All in all, the 2024 Braves are taking better swings than the 2023 team.

All data pulled from 2023 Braves and 2024 Braves.

So the Braves expected stats are up from 2023 but production is down. Braves contact rate and type are better than 2023 but production is down. We know the balls the Braves hit are traveling 9-16 feet less than in previous years but we want to blame the coaches and players when they are, by the numbers, swinging better than 2023.
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Got that from Reddit.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Got that from Reddit.
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I hate to be a conspiracy theorist. I really do.

But when you are hitting the ball just as hard with the same exit velocity and launch angle (on average) and the ball is traveling 10+ ft less, the only explanation is a change in baseballs.

Now, maybe the change was purposeful but the frequency of games in which we've played using different balls is simply coincidental. I am not sure exactly what the MLB has to gain by purposely handicapping the Braves. But it's clear to me the ball is definitely different. Of course that's only part of the issue with the Braves offense so far, but if Riley, Olson, Ozzie, Arcia, etc had 2-3 extra homers a piece (or more with Olson) their overall stat lines would look significantly better.

And before anyone mentions Ozuna, his batted balls are also traveling about 10 feet less in general. He's just been crushing the dog **** out of everything.
 
msstate7 said:
How did waldrep's stuff rate?
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splitter is good, more of a downer break.. but could really play if he could control it
fastball has avg velo (95-96) but is like swallen's FB.. flat as heck and hittable
slider is gross which is what I saw on the double play.

He will need to develop another pitch to compliment his sinker.. not sure if just dropping the slider and use a cutter instead.. same break, just more horizontal movement. but I would imagine someone has this data and is working with him on either better control, more spin or a new pitch.. right now, he is worse than SS and Elder based on statcast imo.. extreme SSS of course.
 
Slightly different lineup tonight from Snit against a RHP:

Harris
Albies
Riley
Olson
Ozuna
Duvall
Kelenic
Murphy
Arcia

Brilliant to move your current best hitter down 2 spots and potentially get him one less AB.
 
WaitingFor2017 said:
Slightly different lineup tonight from Snit against a RHP:

Harris
Albies
Riley
Olson
Ozuna
Duvall
Kelenic
Murphy
Arcia

Brilliant to move your current best hitter down 2 spots and potentially get him one less AB.
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I disagree. This seems to be a better lineup IMO.. you are talking about one less AB against the other teams best pen piece (much lower success rate) versus protecting your Lefties from a Lefty killing reliever...
 
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