Seager has long been my favorite (once Moustakas signed) - the question is will (or more to the point can) AA take the money so he doesn't have to climb particularly high up the prospect list?
The $18 million he's owed for 2021 is easily covered with Melancon and Flowers coming off the books. Even if you're going to promote BOTH Pache and Waters at the beginning of 2021, you're still going to have money issues. You're still looking for a RH bat with pop to hit behind Freddie (ideally), and that's going to have to be someone really cheap (unless you're going to move Acuna down and hit Ozzie and Dansby 1-2 in some order) if you also want to make a play for Bauer.
Hamels, Folty, Markakis, and Greene gone gives you ~ $34 million - that won't be enough to make Bauer answer the phone.
In my ideal world, you somehow get Seattle to eat $5 million a year of Seager's money. Riley and which arm does that? Now you're in the ballpark for Bauer.
Bring back Duvall and Camargo as your 4th OF/DH and super utility guys (Camargo becomes the 5th OF) and Duvall could hit behind Freddie if you don't move Acuna or d'Arnaud/Contreras there. Pray that you can get someone to take on half of Ender's money so you can pay for some of the raises with that money and from declining O'Day's option.
Acuna, Ozzie, Freddie, Duvall, Seager, d'Arnaud/Contreras, Dansby, Waters, Pache (Contreras/d'Arnaud, Camargo, Shewmake, ???)
Bauer, Fried, Soroka, Wright, Touki (Anderson/Wright/Davidson/Muller)
Smith, Martin, Minter, Jackson, Matzek, Weigel, Newk, Wilson, Sobotka (Pfeifer/De La Cruz/Webb/Walker)
I'd be willing to roll those dice in the final year of Freddie's deal since I think that group would have a legitimate shot, but I've always been part of the flags fly forever crowd.
Acuna, Ozzie, Freddie, Duvall, Seager, d'Arnaud/Contreras, Dansby, Waters, Pache (Contreras/d'Arnaud, Camargo, Shewmake, ???)
Bauer, Fried, Soroka, Wright, Touki (Anderson/Wright/Davidson/Muller)
Smith, Martin, Minter, Jackson, Matzek, Weigel, Newk, Wilson, Sobotka (Pfeifer/De La Cruz/Webb/Walker)
I'm not saying you're wrong, but is Bauer not picking up the phone for 30+ million? I know a one year deal should have a higher annual value, but what are you projecting him to do? He has one monster season at 5.8 WAR. Otherwise he looks like a 2-3 win pitcher to me. You'd have to expect him to be a 5 win or more pitcher for 30+ million.
Stroman has a history with AA but it will take a multi year deal.
I think Hamels, Folty, Neck and Greene will be gone. Flowers may go as well given how well Contreras looked. They may want him to get his feet wet with D'Arnaud before D'A's contract runs out.
If you can get Ozuna to sign on to be DH (if there is a DH) at a similar number he could man the OF enough to get an extra year of Waters (2/40 with club option?). Keeping Duval at a reasonable number would be great too.
Pitcher is going to be tough. I don't think you can count on Soroka being back. And if he's back, you can't count on him being himself. I think they have to sign two pitchers at a minimum, but maybe they'll go with the scrap heap and/or prove it deal. I still think Jose Quintana looks like an AA one year guy.
I would bet a lot of money they'll extend FF. The only thing that holds me back from it being a lock is COVID and Liberty's finances. I just see a 4/100 deal to take him to 35. Especially with the DH being an option.
Maybe the thing holding him back from a multiyear 3B option is Lindor. In a non-COVID non-rotation disaster I think AA would be all in on Lindor. Impact guy. 1 year of control. Dream about the marketing around the fun Lindor, Albies and Acuna would play with in the middle of the diamond. You could deal with Riley at 3B and struggles from rookies like Pache and Waters with Lindor at SS.
