GDT- 8/14/18 ....RETURN OF THE NIGHT OF THE ANIBAL- THIS TIME HE MEANS WAR

nsacpi said:
The pipeline also had Wood and Teheran. So that is a decent yield out of those five.

If we had also had two who stayed healthy out of Jurrjens, Hansen, Medlen, Beachy and Minor we would have been ok.

Say Wood, Teheran, Beachy and Minor plus some veteran to fill out the rotation the past few years.
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I think having Wood and Teheran as solid major league performers holding 2/5 of your rotation at the minimum was a pretty decent start to a rotation with or without the others.


Either way it would have broken down like this with health:

Jurrjens FA after 2013 - not really an issue.

Hanson FA after 2015
Medlen FA after 2015
Beachy FA after 2016
Minor FA after 2017

If they'd had different results with the luck there things might have gone better, though expecting some of those guys to maintain their peaks is a little wishful thinking perhaps?

If they have Hanson and Medlen healthy going into 2015, they probably don't have the fire sale. Maybe they would have extended them in the alternative history, which doesn't seem like such a good idea based on their injuries on Earth 1, but who knows.

then the following FA period would have been a real problem.

..

As it was the Braves could have tried to win in 2015 by making some veteran pickups. But didn't see hope for 2016 and beyond and chose to do what they did. Probably for the best. they're better set up now than then. Only had to punt three years of our lives to get there.
 
nsacpi said:
The pipeline also had Wood and Teheran. So that is a decent yield out of those five.

If we had also had two who stayed healthy out of Jurrjens, Hansen, Medlen, Beachy and Minor we would have been ok.

Say Wood, Teheran, Beachy and Minor plus some veteran to fill out the rotation the past few years.
Click to expand...

Interesting list. Let's rehash what a lot of folks were saying about those pitchers at the time...

JJ - Mediocre stuff who I wanted traded around 2011 when he still had a bit of team control left
Hanson - throwing motion folks knew was a ticking time bomb from day 1
Medlen - another control guy we knew wasn't going to last long
Beachy - came out of nowhere, seemed to have legit stuff
Minor - signability SP they drafted specifically to rush to Atlanta

It's not like that was a group of horses anyone really expected to anchor a rotation for years.
 
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Southcack77 said:
I think having Wood and Teheran as solid major league performers holding 2/5 of your rotation at the minimum was a pretty decent start to a rotation with or without the others.


Either way it would have broken down like this with health:

Jurrjens FA after 2013 - not really an issue.

Hanson FA after 2015
Medlen FA after 2015
Beachy FA after 2016
Minor FA after 2017

If they'd had different results with the luck there things might have gone better, though expecting some of those guys to maintain their peaks is a little wishful thinking perhaps?

If they have Hanson and Medlen healthy going into 2015, they probably don't have the fire sale. Maybe they would have extended them in the alternative history, which doesn't seem like such a good idea based on their injuries on Earth 1, but who knows.

then the following FA period would have been a real problem.

..

As it was the Braves could have tried to win in 2015 by making some veteran pickups. But didn't see hope for 2016 and beyond and chose to do what they did. Probably for the best. they're better set up now than then. Only had to punt three years of our lives to get there.
Click to expand...

Obviously there would be year-to-year fluctuations for individual pitchers, but with some better luck on health a rotation of Wood, Teheran, Minor, Beachy plus a mid-rotation vet could have been reasonably be expected to generate about 10 WAR per year over the 2014-2017 period.
 
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nsacpi said:
Obviously there would be year-to-year fluctuations for individual pitchers, but with some better luck on health a rotation of Wood, Teheran, Minor, Beachy plus a mid-rotation vet could have been reasonably be expected to generate about 10 WAR per year over the 2014-2017 period.
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On a very Braves loving Earth 14, perhaps.

But it wouldn't have done much to help their prospects for 2016+ anyway.

I agree with Enscheff on this one -- a lot of those dudes outperformed anything that was realistic even as things stood. Asking them all to stay unusually healthy and stay away from decline...I don't know. I think that's pretty rosy.

A good organizational situation would have had their replacements lined up.
 
Southcack77 said:
On a very Braves loving Earth 14, perhaps.

But it wouldn't have done much to help their prospects for 2016+ anyway.

I agree with Enscheff on this one -- a lot of those dudes outperformed anything that was realistic even as things stood. Asking them all to stay unusually healthy and stay away from decline...I don't know. I think that's pretty rosy.

A good organizational situation would have had their replacements lined up.
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In saying imagine a rotation of Wood, Teheran, Minor and Beachy, I am allowing for attrition (no Hansen, Medlen, Jurrjens) and guys like Sims and Hursch not panning out. So it is not what I would call a rosy scenario.
 
nsacpi said:
In saying imagine a rotation of Wood, Teheran, Minor and Beachy, I am allowing for attrition (no Hansen, Medlen, Jurrjens) and guys like Sims and Hursch not panning out. So it is not what I would call a rosy scenario.
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Minor and Beachy are the only two guys of the group the Braves would still have controlled in 2016 (in addition to Wood and Teheran). You are assuming both of them would be healthy.

It seems rosy to me, but its your scenario.
 
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