GDT 8/7/23: Pirates @ Bravos - Time to hit our STRIDEr

pitchers struggle sometimes. They don't hit thier spots or get a string of bad luck.

I wouldn't worry. I am hoping we start IL'ing our 3 starters some.. you know cause we all have finger sprains and need a week or so off.
 
The Braves are still the best team in baseball and the past 3 games don’t change that. Yes a few things have sucked but all teams have stuff like that happen. I just hope it doesn’t carry over into the post season. Striders problem is all mental. When he gets runners on he tries to hard and can’t locate. He’s still young and will only get better imo.
 
So much anger about the pitching. If you look at the stats, we've been pretty unlucky since the break.

Our team ERA since the break is 5.02, 4th worst in baseball.

Our team xFIP is 4.06, 9th best in baseball.

Our staff BABIP is .310, 5th highest in baseball.

You might think our staff is getting hit hard with a high BABIP and high ERA. Nope! Our HardHit% since the break is 4th best in the league and our Barrel% is 9th best.

The most telling stat of them all? LOB%. We're dead last since the break with a 66.3% LOB%.

So what's happening? Part of it is we're getting pretty unlucky. We're giving up a ton of weak hits, especially weak contact extra base hits. We're also getting insanely unlucky with teams getting hits against us at crucial times.

The other part of it has been our team has taken leave of their senses in the field since the break. I don't know what it is but multiple guys on the team have been significantly worse than normal in the field leading to a lot of crucial runs that should never have happened.

So the pitching hasn't been that bad. The luck has been astonishingly bad and the defense has been inept.
 
striker42 said:
So much anger about the pitching. If you look at the stats, we've been pretty unlucky since the break.

Our team ERA since the break is 5.02, 4th worst in baseball.

Our team xFIP is 4.06, 9th best in baseball.

Our staff BABIP is .310, 5th highest in baseball.

You might think our staff is getting hit hard with a high BABIP and high ERA. Nope! Our HardHit% since the break is 4th best in the league and our Barrel% is 9th best.

The most telling stat of them all? LOB%. We're dead last since the break with a 66.3% LOB%.

So what's happening? Part of it is we're getting pretty unlucky. We're giving up a ton of weak hits, especially weak contact extra base hits. We're also getting insanely unlucky with teams getting hits against us at crucial times.

The other part of it has been our team has taken leave of their senses in the field since the break. I don't know what it is but multiple guys on the team have been significantly worse than normal in the field leading to a lot of crucial runs that should never have happened.

So the pitching hasn't been that bad. The luck has been astonishingly bad and the defense has been inept.
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Where do we rank in walks?
 
msstate7 said:
Where do we rank in walks?
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19th in baseball since the break with 3.44. The difference between 19th and 15th is 0.11 B/9. So basically one additional walk every 9 games. The difference between 19th and 10th is 0.32 B/9 so one additional walk every 3 games.

So while the walk rate hasn't been exceptional, it's been pretty much average. 17 teams in the league fall between 3.12 and 3.89 BB/9 since the break.
 
striker42 said:
19th in baseball since the break with 3.44. The difference between 19th and 15th is 0.11 B/9. So basically one additional walk every 9 games. The difference between 19th and 10th is 0.32 B/9 so one additional walk every 3 games.

So while the walk rate hasn't been exceptional, it's been pretty much average. 17 teams in the league fall between 3.12 and 3.89 BB/9 since the break.
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I'm pretty surprised we aren't lower.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I'm not a pitching expert (clearly), but it looked like he lost his release point, overcompensated by taking a few MPH off his pitches to locate and just lost it after that. Had he been able to get an out while it was still a two- or three-run game, I bet he's able to go another two or three innings. He's a good pitcher, but he's young and has pitched like 450 total innings. Max had that in the minors alone. It takes time for most of these guys to totally figure it out.
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He's clearly been very unlucky. But you can feel a change in him once cruise control gets shut off. It gets to him when hitters suddenly are able to foul off 4-5 pitches. It gets to him when the ump misses a call. It gets to him when weak contact falls for a hit. That's all natural for a young pitcher, but also doesn't inspire confidence come playoff time.
 
msstate7 said:
I'm pretty surprised we aren't lower.
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Like I said, the pitching staff hasn't been that bad. They've been insanely unlucky. That LOB% is just brutal. We're at 66.3%. The average should be between 70% and 75%. It was 75.6% in the first half. Basically, the percent of guys who are scoring instead of being stranded is up by 38% since the break (33.6% instead of 24.4%).
 
When mediocre pitchers don't have good luck, bad results are inevitable. When good pitchers have bad luck, bad results are likely.

Remember that time I said Morton and Elder should probably not be starting in the playoffs? Remember when folks disagreed?

I'll keep reminding folks about that.
 
Enscheff said:
When mediocre pitchers don't have good luck, bad results are inevitable. When good pitchers have bad luck, bad results are likely.

Remember that time I said Morton and Elder should probably not be starting in the playoffs? Remember when folks disagreed?

I'll keep reminding folks about that.
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Remember that time Bryse Wilson started that game against the Dodgers. There are no guarantees that acquiring a starting pitcher would have produce a better outcome than the pitchers we have now or that the pitcher would even be available come postseason time.

The question was were these rental SP upgrades a good use of our resources. AA filled the 2 biggest needs on the team which were LHRP and backup SS
 
I actually like Morton as a game 3 starter. If he can have a few starts skipped and he come in without a huge work load in the 2nd half then I like him going 5 innings airing it out.. You get to Elder and just put a times through limit on him. let him know he won't face the top of the order twice.. start with an opener, then let him clear 4 or so innings.
 
May not be the worst thing if the Dodgers get the 1 seed. I’d much rather face Milwaukee or Reds/Cubs/Marlins vs the Giants/ Phillies
 
msstate7 said:
Braves +5.5

I don't think the dodgers catch em
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Probably right. The Braves are struggling right now as all teams do but plenty of time to right the ship. In the grand scheme going 10-11 in the middle of August when you lead your division by double digits should barely register.

They need to get Strider and Morton right though.
 
I still do not understand why the Braves didn't go after Lorenzen. The Phillies gave up nothing for him and he would have been perfect right now. I would rather see him than Chirionos.
 
Slippyjms said:
Remember that time Bryse Wilson started that game against the Dodgers. There are no guarantees that acquiring a starting pitcher would have produce a better outcome than the pitchers we have now or that the pitcher would even be available come postseason time.

The question was were these rental SP upgrades a good use of our resources. AA filled the 2 biggest needs on the team which were LHRP and backup SS
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We are taking about probabilities of things happening, not “that one time that is memorable because of how unexpected it was”.
 
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