GDT 9-21: Going for a Motor City Sweep on NFL Week 3

msstate7 said:
Strider and elder basically the same in xERa, FIP, and xFIP this season.

In September,
Strider: 2.35 era, 3.88 FIP
Elder: 2.92 era, 2.66 FIP

Any chance elder passes strider for next season? Probably more likely neither are starters.
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Dude just stop. Elder has the highest ERA in baseball since the start of 2024 with a 5.65 ERA. The next closest guy is Austin Gomber at 5.46. Elder is not a major league pitcher.

Strider had a legitimately terrible 3 start stretch at the start of August. But other than that, he's been an above average pitcher. He strikes out more hitters than Elder and allows less base runners than Elder.
 
msstate7 said:




Which one is elder? Which one is strider?
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One has a proven track record of being very good, with an all-red Statcast page nearly every year. The other’s page looks like this every year and never improves. It’s fair to be concerned about Strider long-term, but he’s been elite for most of his career and got thrown into the season after major surgery with no offseason prep. This is a weird-ass hill to die on.

You could be completely right. But at least wait to discuss this until you see how he looks in Spring Training or in early 2026.
 
Carp said:
Dude just stop. Elder has the highest ERA in baseball since the start of 2024 with a 5.65 ERA. The next closest guy is Austin Gomber at 5.46. Elder is not a major league pitcher.

Strider had a legitimately terrible 3 start stretch at the start of August. But other than that, he's been an above average pitcher. He strikes out more hitters than Elder and allows less base runners than Elder.
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I like msstate, but this is silly. He's saying Strider is going to be potentially worse than the worst starter in baseball. It's lunatic shit.
 
I don't think state is saying Strider is Elder.. but that Strider has to the potential to become Elder. And if he can't get his fastball back, he would become something resembling a back end starter.. no way the league doesn't adjust to the new curve/slider combo.

the only pause I have is Strider is a very analytical pitcher.. he will do what he needs to do to be successful and I don't see him ever becoming back end rotation guy while still in his prime.. I fully expect him to work the entire offseason on rebuilding his deliver/release/angle/spin and whatever else he can to improve the velo/shape of the FA.. he knows he can't survive without a good FA... whether it be a cutter/sinker/or straight gas...
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I like msstate, but this is silly. He's saying Strider is going to be potentially worse than the worst starter in baseball. It's lunatic shit.
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With a minimum of 100 IP this season, here's where both rank in fWAR...
Strider 98 of 124
Elder 102 of 124

Era...
Strider 88 of 124
Elder 112 of 124

XERA...
Strider 100 of 124
Elder 93 or 124

FIP...
Strider 88 of 124
Elder 89 of 124

XFIP...
strider 67 of 124
Elder 52 of 124

Both savant run value pages look similar. Both 26. They look comparable to me
 
UNCBlue012 said:
One has a proven track record of being very good, with an all-red Statcast page nearly every year. The other’s page looks like this every year and never improves. It’s fair to be concerned about Strider long-term, but he’s been elite for most of his career and got thrown into the season after major surgery with no offseason prep. This is a weird-ass hill to die on.

You could be completely right. But at least wait to discuss this until you see how he looks in Spring Training or in early 2026.
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I can't be right or wrong bc I'm not predicting anything. All I'm saying is strider is no more certain to be a good starter than elder since the injury. I hope he is bc if strider gets back to 90% of his pre-injury self, this staff will be stacked
 
Fastball velocity is usually the first thing to come back after a player returns from elbow surgery. I'm unsure why folks keep suggesting otherwise.

There is a very strong possibility Strider throws 94 now, and that's a huge problem.
 
I am very happy to give Strider a mulligan on this year, trying to come back from surgery, not knowing how his arm and body would react.

Let’s talk again after an offseason and spring training.
 
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