GDT #95: July 13, 2014 Braves (Teheran) @ Cubs (Not Our Wood) 2:20 EST

[yeezus]

There aren't any numbers that point to CJ being "very good." His numbers this year have been "very bad." That's a fact.

 

[nsacpi]

...again pointing to the performance in the first half, which was wanting, to be sure. Never said otherwise. He'll do better, I'm certain.

So where were BJ Upton and Dan Uggla on that stat? And where was everybody on that scale last year?

A wise poster once said the last two-three years have better predictive value than the last three months.

My post was about projected production during the rest of the season. We are projected to have the lowest WAR from 3rd of any major league team during the rest of the year. It doesn't make reference to first half except to the extent to which it affects projections. As the wise poster noted the best projections are based on weights over 2-3 years, including first half results.

 

[gilesfan]

So he needs to strike out less and walk more. Agreed.

His power is above average, as evidenced by your percentile rating. 22nd.

BA is not included in here. It should be. I agree that walks are a good thing and that he needs to take more of them. Just because his value is hit-driven doesn't make it any less real. A hit is worth more than a walk. Hope you agree. (If the bases are empty, means nothing, but men on 2nd and third, it means a lot). Maybe 1.25 * walk! or conversely, a walk is .8 of a hit? Something like that.

Finally, BABIP is first. That doesn't mean he's the luckiest SOB in the league, it means he hits line drives. If the league average is 18% and he's at 27%, he's 50% more likely to hit a line drive.

To me, there's huge value in sustained high BABIP. And whatever flaws CJ has, this is where he hangs his hat. It's not going away.

While I understand his limitations and agree with some of the posted comments, I don't think he is void of value. He's a good player. He's a genius at hitting line drives. And that's worth $5m a year whether he has short range, walks too little and strikes out too much or not.

22nd in aggregate. Out of that 60, there are some 3B that are below replacement level and/or out of the league. Also, the 22nd doesn't account for CJ playing a large portion of his career in a hitters park. IsoSlugging is a better measure for power.

BA is factored in OBP, SLG, wRC+

A relatively high batting average is great. CJ is very good at hitting line drives, which carries some value and means he has an above average BA. But, all the other factors surrounding him make him a pretty weak option for 3B.