GDT - Fourth of July - Braves vs. D'Backs
- Thread starter bravesnumberone
- Start date
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Damn streak ruining this team. What we need is a losing streak so long that BJ gets benched, Uggla gets released, and Fredi gets fired.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
The unfortunate thing is based on how basically every MLB manager reacts. He'll stay at 1 long after he stops hitting because of wanting him to "break out"
I hope we still win enough games to win the NL East but I'm becoming less optimistic as the season wanes into the final months as the Nationals are playing much better as well. We'll make the playoffs as even with our lineup at it's craziest wrong, I can't see us not getting one of the wild card spots.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Try to resist starting a thread titled "The Wild Card is Ours." That's all I ask.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I'd rather have 60 more PA of Jason Heyward.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
That's pure superstition. Placement in the order has virtually no effect on how a hitter hits.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Except when it does.
.268/.302/.415 at leadoff.
.192/.267/.327 elsewhere.
You know this. In baseball, superstition matters. So does confidence. If you think you're hitting because you're getting laid or not getting laid, you are. Or, in Melvin's case, hitting leadoff or not hitting leadoff.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Let me offer the following for your consideration.
I give you a group of players with the following quality in the first half of 2013. They hit much better in one spot of the order than elsewhere in the first half. What do you think their second half data look like. Do they continue to hit better in that spot in the second half?
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I'm guessing you'll prove to me that they don't, that they'll regress. I understand.
What I'm saying is that sometimes it's a feel thing and that that's valid. I know, for instance, without looking at the data, that we are cashing a larger percentage of BJs hits and walks than we are others. And sometimes those subtle little coincidences that aren't grounded in data mean we steal a few. And our Pythagorean shows that we should be worse than we are, and there's really no data to explain it.
And our run differential shows we should win 87 and we win 92.
That's baseball.
So I'm with thethe. Keep him up there while the magic is happening.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
My stats didn't include the last game.
You know, his loss of skill was quite mysterious. Who's to say his regaining his skill would be any less mysterious?
This is a guy who has hit .300 with a .386 OBP in the major leagues.
Who knows. I never did expect some of his bigger years in Tampa in Atlanta. I just expected something like a 105-110 wrc+ with plus defense and good base running/steals. He has talent but it starts with his strikeout rate. When it's in the upper 20's or low 30's he just isn't going to be a productive major league hitter. He needs low to mid 20's to be even remotely not bad.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
There is the school of thought that strike outs don't really matter and for some hitters, that is true. If Upton were a consistent 30 HR/.350 OBP guy, they wouldn't. He's not, so they do. Has some very good physical tools and I hope he puts things back together.
Like wupk, I wasn't expecting the 2007 or 2008 Bossman, Jr., but I was hoping for something like the 2010-2012. But even in those years the payoff on the K-rate was not very good.
A hitter can be good and strike out a lot. That is where that school of thought comes from. The younger Upton is an example of this. Someone like say Martin Prado could not be a good hitter with a high K rate. It's just dependent on what other abilities that hitter has like power/walk rate or LD% in Chris Johnson's case. Upton's K rate those years wasn't pretty either but it was still around the mid 20's. His time with the Braves it has been at 30% or higher. That's just not going to get it done especially with him not hitting for as much power as he did in Tampa. In the last 10 games though his K rate has been at the 25% mark and we've seen better results. I think think that is the key for him. Mid 20 K rate and he won't be an abortion of a hitter.