GDT gnats 4/3/18

Southcack77 said:
I think that at least having a thesis for why getting hit in the face would only sap a player's power without really affecting his contact rates and OBP would be nice. And why that's more satisfying than he just had a career year after which he reverted to the type of power he demonstrated before.

I guess I'm being a heel. Some of these players seemed to be heroes like Dale Murphy was to me, so maybe I should just let it go.
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I always thought Freeman's hitting fundamentals were better than Heyward's, but that doesn't always translate into results. Freeman just has a much quieter approach and he opens up better and seems to meet the ball where it is pitched better than Heyward (even before Heyward was hurt).

The HBP really set Heyward back. Maddon usually sits him against LHP now. I haven't watched enough of Heyward to see what has happened versus RHP. My guess is he's still trying to pull outside pitches. Funny thing is his line-drive percentage hasn't changed at all. Along with the effects of the HBP, he's probably been solved to some extent through advanced scouting and analysis and he hasn't been able to make the necessary adjustments. Baseball is a very difficult game.
 
thewupk said:
I agree. Showing ISO SLG of 179, 162, 210, and 173 prior to getting hit and then 113, 146, 94, and 130 afterwards clearly shows no difference in power level besides the 1 career year.
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what's that old saying about correlation and causation?

you were asked what the thesis is...what is it? it's "mental," so he's..scared? it somehow sapped only his power - why? it just doesn't really hold up upon further questioning, questioning beyond "what was his ISO before and after?"
 
Super said:
what's that old saying about correlation and causation?
you were asked what the thesis is...what is it? it's "mental," so he's..scared? it somehow sapped only his power - why? it just doesn't really hold up upon further questioning, questioning beyond "what was his ISO before and after?"
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I agree. Getting hit in the face has never effected a player afterwards. Heyward losing the ability to hit for power immediately after the fact can only be a result of the league figuring him out.

The old saying that the simplest explanation is usually right applies here.
 
Heyward was never as good as we thought but he was also impacted by getting hit in the face. Both can exist.
 
thewupk said:
I agree. Getting hit in the face has never effected a player afterwards. Heyward losing the ability to hit for power immediately after the fact can only be a result of the league figuring him out.

The old saying that the simplest explanation is usually right applies here.
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so what is your idea then?! that he's just scared? what does "it's mental" mean? that his power was contained in his face? why did heyward lose his and stanton didn't? why did it ONLY affect his power? it doesn't make any sense.

the simplest explanation is that yeah, the league figured him out.
 
Super said:
so what is your idea then?! that he's just scared? what does "it's mental" mean? that his power was contained in his face? why did heyward lose his and stanton didn't? why did it ONLY affect his power? it doesn't make any sense.

the simplest explanation is that yeah, the league figured him out.
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actually it's not. the league figuring him out after 4 seasons? right after getting hit in the face? sure man.

as for why it hasn't effected Stanton. do you seriously think getting hit in the face effects each player in the same way?

and it's more than heywards power although losing it has trickled down to everything else. simply put he doesn't hit the ball as hard anymore and puts the ball on the ground more often. this has obviously sapped his power and his babip is lower as a result. but yeah. the league, as a whole, must have figured heyward out after 4 years of good results.
 
thewupk said:
actually it's not. the league figuring him out after 4 seasons? right after getting hit in the face? sure man.

as for why it hasn't effected Stanton. do you seriously think getting hit in the face effects each player in the same way?

and it's more than heywards power although losing it has trickled down to everything else. simply put he doesn't hit the ball as hard anymore and puts the ball on the ground more often. this has obviously sapped his power and his babip is lower as a result. but yeah. the league, as a whole, must have figured heyward out after 4 years of good results.
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So you have no idea why getting hit on the face would only sap power but with Heyward the two things happened near the same time so one must have caused the other?

examples of other players who got hit in the face are relevant in the vague sense that maybe it happened to some players before and harmed them but counter examples are not relevant because it must affect all players differently.
 
Southcack77 said:
So you have no idea why getting hit on the face would only sap power but with Heyward the two things happened near the same time so one must have caused the other?

examples of other players who got hit in the face are relevant in the vague sense that maybe it happened to some players before and harmed them but counter examples are not relevant because it must affect all players differently.
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It's common sense that getting hit in the face can alter your approach at the plate. It's also common sense that it won't effect every player that it happens to. But yes it's a fairly common phenomenon that injuries can derail players careers.
 
thewupk said:
It's common sense that getting hit in the face can alter your approach at the plate. It's also common sense that it won't effect every player that it happens to. But yes it's a fairly common phenomenon that injuries can derail players careers.
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Common sense? You are veering off the track now.
 
Southcack77 said:
Common sense? You are veering off the track now.
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Am I? Something caused Heyward to suddenly have weaker contact from before and after the injury. I doubt it's because the league started figuring him out the day he came back from getting hit in the face.
 
did heyward get hit in the face AGAIN between the 2015 and 2016 season? or did he just get worse, again?

there has to be another excuse for him getting worse other than him just simply getting worse.
 
thewupk said:
Am I? Something caused Heyward to suddenly have weaker contact from before and after the injury. I doubt it's because the league started figuring him out the day he came back from getting hit in the face.
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so, again, it's just "mental", right? so are you suggesting he's afraid at the plate? isn't willing to swing as hard while still making similar contact? you're stating your pretty baseless opinion as fact with very little to back it up. saying "it's mental" isn't an argument and is grounded in nothing.
 
Super said:
so, again, it's just "mental", right? so are you suggesting he's afraid at the plate? isn't willing to swing as hard while still making similar contact? you're stating your pretty baseless opinion as fact with very little to back it up. saying "it's mental" isn't an argument and is grounded in nothing.
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I'm not Heyward and I don't know him so I can't answer these questions. To me it's quite obvious that he has changed as a hitter after getting hit in the face. You think the league has figured him out or his skills declined. In the end it doesn't matter. But players generally entering their late 20's don't start hitting the ball softer than they did in their early 20's. The fact you can pinpoint the date this started happening coincides with him getting hit in the face tells me all I need to know.
 
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