GDT: Marlins @ Braves

As I’ve said for over a year now, Newk is a “stuff #4”, and it will be a race between his control improving and his stuff declining to determine how successful he ultimately is. I also posted data showing pitchers at his age don’t usually improve their control significantly. Nothing Newk is doing should be unexpected by anyone.

Newk is likely experiencing a bit of dead arm right now, which is fairly common at the later stages of ST. I wouldn’t worry too much about his velocity right now as long as he isn’t injured. We saw the standard “10 day DL rest period” work well for him last year when he started to wear down, so expect to see a similar strategy this year.

Having said all that, Newk is going to be in the rotation for a while this year because he’s a good pitcher, he’s established at the MLB level, and he’s healthy. What we should all be hoping for is guys like Soroka, Wright and Touki make the strides necessary (health and/or polish) to push Newk to the BP where he profiles as a high leverage arm.

As I’ve said for almost 2 years now, I still like Wright the most of all the young pitchers.
 
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Did he smoke ankther ball up the middle that turned into an out? I’ve seen him do that twice so far in the limited number of televised games.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Who else is excited to see what Pache does this year in the minors. He is a special player imo.
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I can't wait to see if the power and his ability to walk further develops. If he can get to the point where he could hit 20 homers per year and can maintain a ~.350 OBP then he's gonna be one of the best prospects in baseball. But I do have some reservations about his ability to get there.

I'm gonna guess that he ends up being a .280/.330/.390 type of hitter with elite defense. Thats still a pretty valuable player.
 
The very best prospects are typically good hitters from the start and develop power as they mature. Used car lots are full of prospects who “just had to learn how to hit”.

Pache is a good prospect, but the hype on him is a little out of control at the moment. Folks seem to be valuing his floor as a defensive 4th OFer a little too highly in my opinion.
 
Enscheff said:
The very best prospects are typically good hitters from the start and develop power as they mature. Used car lots are full of prospects who “just had to learn how to hit”.

Pache is a good prospect, but the hype on him is a little out of control at the moment. Folks seem to be valuing his floor as a defensive 4th OFer a little too highly in my opinion.
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He will hit better than Ender and play defense at least on par with Ender. That makes him a 3 war player. I think it’s ok to be a little excited about having a 3 war player coming that will be under cheap team control for six years.
 
Enscheff said:
The very best prospects are typically good hitters from the start and develop power as they mature. Used car lots are full of prospects who “just had to learn how to hit”.

Pache is a good prospect, but the hype on him is a little out of control at the moment. Folks seem to be valuing his floor as a defensive 4th OFer a little too highly in my opinion.
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He's always been young for his level. And his hitting has gotten better for each level. Plus there is the defense. Imo he is our #1 prospect. He's not Acuna (or even Albies), but that still leaves plenty of room for being a really good player.
 
nsacpi said:
He's always been young for his level. And his hitting has gotten better for each level. Plus there is the defense. Imo he is our #1 prospect. He's not Acuna (or even Albies), but that still leaves plenty of room for being a really good player.
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Which is why I said he's a good prospect. There are tons of guys that are/were going to be great "if they learn how to hit".

Is he a 55? Probably.

Is he the 19th best prospect in the game? No to me.

Again, a lot of his value is tied into statements such as: "at the very least, he's a very good defensive OFer". Those guys are available for peanuts every off season, so I assign zero value to those types of outcomes.

The A+ ISO of .146 was encouraging, but it appears to be the anomaly compared to all his other MiLB stats. What everyone should be looking for is an ISO of .100-.125 and a BB rate of 5%-7% in AA over a sample size of around 200+ PAs. If/When that happens we can start talking about how great he is, and how he's going to replace Ender.
 
Enscheff said:
Which is why I said he's a good prospect. There are tons of guys that are/were going to be great "if they learn how to hit".

Is he a 55? Probably.

Is he the 19th best prospect in the game? No to me.

Again, a lot of his value is tied into statements such as: "at the very least, he's a very good defensive OFer". Those guys are available for peanuts every off season, so I assign zero value to those types of outcomes.

The A+ ISO of .146 was encouraging, but it appears to be the anomaly compared to all his other MiLB stats. What everyone should be looking for is an ISO of .100-.125 and a BB rate of 5%-7% in AA over a sample size of around 200+ PAs. If/When that happens we can start talking about how great he is, and how he's going to replace Ender.
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Mississippi will be a good test...one of the tougher hitting environments in the minors
 
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