GDT MAYTWO : The Sons of Katie Elder

chop2chip said:
Yates has finally started to look more like his old self, at least in the strike out department, so I think you try keep him around and wait for the walks to stabilize. But it probably does come around to either him or Tonkin. Tonkin has simply been better but Kirby does offer more upside.

Braves are in a weird spot with the pen where no one is lights out but no one is truly awful, so it’s hard to make room.
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Tonkin has been great. No way you send him down.
 
I hate to be the one to rain on the Bryce Elder parade but don't expect this to last. The biggest red flag to me is the average exit velocity against him, 92.2 MPH. For comparison, if he was a hitter and had a 92.2 average exit velocity, he'd be tied for 27th in the game. It's the exact average exit velocity of Jorge Soler. It's only 0.2 MPH less than Ohtani and it's 0.5 MPH higher than Trout. Currently, the highest average EV for a pitcher who has thrown enough innings to qualify is 91.0, Logan Gilbert for Seattle.

I could deal with high EVs if he was striking out a ton. While 8.00 per 9 isn't bad, it's probably not enough to have a ton of success if he's giving up rockets when batters do make contact.

While the EV is a red flag it doesn't mean he's a useless pitcher. He's a ground ball pitcher which is good. It will help to limit the number of HRs he gives up. He's not walking many, just 2.25 per 9 so that helps limit the damage hits do. And his expected numbers, while significantly worse than what he's doing, aren't unbearable. His xERA is 4.38 and his xFIP is 3.52. I'd take that every day for a back half of the rotation starter.

While the sample size isn't huge, we do have 99 Statcast events to draw from. I've read it takes about 40 balls in play for EV to become reliable so 99 events should be enough to start making some early conclusions.
 
NYCBrave said:
Who are we thinking is gone when Iglesias is back? Another fake injury for someone? I believe Lee and Anderson have options but can't send either down, too valuable. Hate to say it but may have to be Yates gone. Walking a guy an inning, command still doesn't seem to be there.
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...Minter has an option left.

In all seriousness, it'll have to be Yates or Tonkin. My guess would be Tonkin. His results have been good but they're supported by an unsustainable .128 BABIP and a career low HR rate. I don't know which it will be. If Kirby gets his BBs under control, he's a shut down reliever but that's not a given. Tonkin hasn't walked many at all but he also hasn't K'd a ton either.

If we send down one of Yates or Tonkin I fully expect we'll lose them. It wouldn't surprise me to see a phantom injury on the staff to give us more time to see who separates themselves.
 
NYCBrave said:
Who are we thinking is gone when Iglesias is back? Another fake injury for someone? I believe Lee and Anderson have options but can't send either down, too valuable. Hate to say it but may have to be Yates gone. Walking a guy an inning, command still doesn't seem to be there.
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I can see Chavez down as a fake injury to give him some time. Or Tonkin.
 
striker42 said:
I hate to be the one to rain on the Bryce Elder parade but don't expect this to last. The biggest red flag to me is the average exit velocity against him, 92.2 MPH. For comparison, if he was a hitter and had a 92.2 average exit velocity, he'd be tied for 27th in the game. It's the exact average exit velocity of Jorge Soler. It's only 0.2 MPH less than Ohtani and it's 0.5 MPH higher than Trout. Currently, the highest average EV for a pitcher who has thrown enough innings to qualify is 91.0, Logan Gilbert for Seattle.

I could deal with high EVs if he was striking out a ton. While 8.00 per 9 isn't bad, it's probably not enough to have a ton of success if he's giving up rockets when batters do make contact.

While the EV is a red flag it doesn't mean he's a useless pitcher. He's a ground ball pitcher which is good. It will help to limit the number of HRs he gives up. He's not walking many, just 2.25 per 9 so that helps limit the damage hits do. And his expected numbers, while significantly worse than what he's doing, aren't unbearable. His xERA is 4.38 and his xFIP is 3.52. I'd take that every day for a back half of the rotation starter.

While the sample size isn't huge, we do have 99 Statcast events to draw from. I've read it takes about 40 balls in play for EV to become reliable so 99 events should be enough to start making some early conclusions.
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I agree. I was pro Elder being a good 5th starter last year when he was bad. I still am now, while his results are not sustainable.

I think he's going to be a very good number 5 while on team control and then you let him walk.
 
striker42 said:
...Minter has an option left.

In all seriousness, it'll have to be Yates or Tonkin. My guess would be Tonkin. His results have been good but they're supported by an unsustainable .128 BABIP and a career low HR rate. I don't know which it will be. If Kirby gets his BBs under control, he's a shut down reliever but that's not a given. Tonkin hasn't walked many at all but he also hasn't K'd a ton either.

If we send down one of Yates or Tonkin I fully expect we'll lose them. It wouldn't surprise me to see a phantom injury on the staff to give us more time to see who separates themselves.
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As an aside, not sure how they also find a spot for Luetge when he's ready too
 
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