GDT: Sunday March 13, ATLANTA vs HOUSTON; Freddie's back!

[striker42]

A power surge at Garcia's age isn't unprecedented. So it's likely that some of the power he showed last year is real. However, it's unlikely that he suddenly developed into 30 HR bat. If he played every day I think 15 HRs would be more likely. 20 at the outside.

Olivera is a guy some scouts have said could possibly hit 20+ HRs a year but the more likely figure is closer to 15. He doesn't lift the ball enough to have huge HR numbers. I think 20 HRs from Olivera would be very optimistic.

 

[yeezus]

Okay... I looked back at Badler's report and a few others... they think he could top out as a 20 homer guy. Really sorry I was 5 off on my memory. Either way, it doesn't take away the ridiculous nature of the prediction.

What you said was simply inaccurate, as "most of the scouts" did not project him as a 10-15 homer guy. You were not only off by 5-10 homers (which is significant), you were off on how many people projected only that (which from everything I read, I hardly saw any that said 10-15 tops).

You can argue the prediction, but you don't have to make stuff up.

 

[zbhargrove]

What you said was simply inaccurate, as "most of the scouts" did not project him as a 10-15 homer guy. You were not only off by 5-10 homers (which is significant), you were off on how many people projected only that (which from everything I read, I hardly saw any that said 10-15 tops).

You can argue the prediction, but you don't have to make stuff up.

I didn't make anything up... Badler was the highest on him and said he'd likely top out at 20... I read a ton of scouts saying he's more likely to be a 10-15 homer guy... please provide an example of all the scouts saying he is likely to be a more than 15 homer guy.

 

[zbhargrove]

What you said was simply inaccurate, as "most of the scouts" did not project him as a 10-15 homer guy. You were not only off by 5-10 homers (which is significant), you were off on how many people projected only that (which from everything I read, I hardly saw any that said 10-15 tops).

You can argue the prediction, but you don't have to make stuff up.

Garrett Spain:
"He has a nice, athletic frame at 6'2" 220lbs, but has clearly maxed out his power and projects to be roughly a 15-20 home run hitter."

Fangraphs:
"That lack of sample size makes it hard to say for sure just how well Olivera will hit. But .260 with 12 homers and a handful of steals seems like a reasonable expectation."

Frank Neville:
"As a big leaguer, Oliver’s ceiling is probably a .280 average with about 15 home runs and a high on-base percentage. His health and his ability to adjust to the quality offspeed pitches he sees in the U.S. will determine whether he fulfills that potential."

Badler, who was always the most bullish on him:
"The showcase was at the Dominican air force base, where the fences are short and scouts warn that can make for a deceptive evaluation, but he hit several balls that would have been out at any major league stadium, including one blast to straightaway center field. In three rounds, he hit around 10 balls out, mostly to his pull side, showing the power to be a 20-home run threat."

And that was just a quick Google search... man, I was just making SOOOO much up! Holy crap, was I ever.

 

[clvclv]

Andrelton hit 17 - and it ruined him.

If he's capable of that, there's no reason to think Olivera and Garcia aren't capable of a little more. I certainly don't think either is capable of 25+ regularly, but I do think they could each hit 20. KJ has only hit less than 12 in any season where he received 300 ABs twice - as a rookie in 2005 and again in 2009.

That doesn't "solve" the lack of power by any stretch, but if Freeman stays somewhat healthy (a big if, of course) you could get 75 or so from those four players. The platoon behind the plate should deliver another 15-20.

 

[yeezus]

Garrett Spain:
"He has a nice, athletic frame at 6'2" 220lbs, but has clearly maxed out his power and projects to be roughly a 15-20 home run hitter."

Fangraphs:
"That lack of sample size makes it hard to say for sure just how well Olivera will hit. But .260 with 12 homers and a handful of steals seems like a reasonable expectation."

Frank Neville:
"As a big leaguer, Oliver’s ceiling is probably a .280 average with about 15 home runs and a high on-base percentage. His health and his ability to adjust to the quality offspeed pitches he sees in the U.S. will determine whether he fulfills that potential."

Badler, who was always the most bullish on him:
"The showcase was at the Dominican air force base, where the fences are short and scouts warn that can make for a deceptive evaluation, but he hit several balls that would have been out at any major league stadium, including one blast to straightaway center field. In three rounds, he hit around 10 balls out, mostly to his pull side, showing the power to be a 20-home run threat."

And that was just a quick Google search... man, I was just making SOOOO much up! Holy crap, was I ever.

..what you said was incorrect, and that's my main point. why are you getting so worked up over this? Yes, you made up that "most of the scouts said between 10-15." at the time, most were saying between 15-20, and plenty still say that. 15-20 is a good bit different than 10-15, IMO.