GDT: Tuesday, 7/24 at Marlins

UNCBlue012

UNCBlue012

Well-known member
We have an early one today -- let's hope we can grab the win and series! We have Wednesday off and will likely get Albies back on Thursday. I'm hoping we see Culberson find his way into the lineup when Ozzie does return.

#GOBRAVOS!
 
UNCBlue012 said:
We have an early one today -- let's hope we can grab the win and series! We have Wednesday off and will likely get Albies back on Thursday. I'm hoping we see Culberson find his way into the lineup when Ozzie does return.

#GOBRAVOS!
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Acuna in center and Charlie in left
 
Five Thirty Eight currently has the Braves winning 88 games and winning the division. Currently at 61% to make the playoffs.
 
thewupk said:
Five Thirty Eight currently has the Braves winning 88 games and winning the division. Currently at 61% to make the playoffs.
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Fangraphs has us at 40%. lol I love how different these projects all are! I think our biggest asset in making a run for the division crown is our record against NL East opponents. 29-15 is REALLY good.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Fangraphs has us at 40%. lol I love how different these projects all are! I think our biggest asset in making a run for the division crown is our record against NL East opponents. 29-15 is REALLY good.
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i'd love to see FG reasoning for having philly above us. because the advanced stats don't really support it IIRC. their starting pitching is strong, but offense isn't good and defense is really bad. FG is also still giving the nats a lot of credit that i'm not sure they deserve.
 
Super said:
i'd love to see FG reasoning for having philly above us. because the advanced stats don't really support it IIRC. their starting pitching is strong, but offense isn't good and defense is really bad. FG is also still giving the nats a lot of credit that i'm not sure they deserve.
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38.9% of the season remaking, and the nats have a losing record
 
Super said:
i'd love to see FG reasoning for having philly above us. because the advanced stats don't really support it IIRC. their starting pitching is strong, but offense isn't good and defense is really bad. FG is also still giving the nats a lot of credit that i'm not sure they deserve.
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Schedule. It's not HUGE, but they have an easier schedule than us. Also, I think FG bases a lot on SP.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Schedule. It's not HUGE, but they have an easier schedule than us. Also, I think FG bases a lot on SP.
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Pretty sure FiveThirtyEight accounts more for current performance than Fangraphs. Fangraphs likely bases their rest of year projections on the individual rest of year projections via ZIPS. The Braves obviously projected poorly in this area to start so they are still playing catch up so to speak. FiveThirtyEight is a better model imo.
 
thewupk said:
Pretty sure FiveThirtyEight accounts more for current performance than Fangraphs. Fangraphs likely bases their rest of year projections on the individual rest of year projections via ZIPS. The Braves obviously projected poorly in this area to start so they are still playing catch up so to speak. FiveThirtyEight is a better model imo.
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yup, i figured maybe FG has pre-season projections factored a lot still.
 
thewupk said:
Pretty sure FiveThirtyEight accounts more for current performance than Fangraphs. Fangraphs likely bases their rest of year projections on the individual rest of year projections via ZIPS. The Braves obviously projected poorly in this area to start so they are still playing catch up so to speak. FiveThirtyEight is a better model imo.
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Yeah, I'm pretty sure FG is glacially slow in giving players credit for improvements in their RoS projections. For young teams like the Braves, players can improve rather quickly (as opposed to teams full of 30 year olds).

That's why I took the over on their 84 win projection at the AS break.
 
It's also very hard to project the Braves because of so many breakout years by young core players - Acuna, Albies, Camargo, Folty, Newcomb. There aren't 3 year performance bases for these guys.
 
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