Generic minor league thread - Until the Great Rico returns

BeanieAntics said:
I was initially more sour on the Shewmake pick than I was on the Langeliers pick, but I started to understand the rationale around the Shewmake pick more and more as time has passed. He looks like a really good player.

I hated the Langeliers pick from day 1 and that hasn't really changed. Its still too early to tell if I was right, but the early results don't look all that great. I just really hate taking catchers early in the first round. For what its worth, Adley Rutschmann has been even worse than Shea so far in his very early results.
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Evaluating college catchers in their draft year isn't a good way to do it. I'm certainly not a huge fan of the Langeliers pick, but he started the season at Baylor in mid-February, and he's not used to playing this long. Add in the hamate injury this year, and I don't think the stats this year mean anything for him.
 
BeanieAntics said:
For what its worth, Adley Rutschmann has been even worse than Shea so far in his very early results.
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well it's worth very little, so there's that. it's not worth a lot for Shewmake, either. i take the reports on defense more seriously than the offensive numbers for anybody right now.
 
Tapate50 said:
Nick: Ian Anderson’s numbers are insane, and I keep reading his breaking ball is really good. But the spin rate you guys have on it is really low. What am I missing?

1:16
Kiley McDaniel: It flashed 60 as an amateur but is a 50 pitch now. The spin rate is very low, but it’s spin efficient so that sorta overstates the issue. The CH has improved as the CB regressed a bit.
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Since the CH is used vs LHH, and the CU is used against RHH, I would expect Anderson to show better K numbers vs LHH than RHH if the CH is significantly better than the CU.

2019 (AA)
K% vs RHH: 29.7%
K% vs LHH: 33.9%

2018 (A+/AA)
K% vs RHH: 26.2%
K% vs LHH: 31.1%

2017 (A)
K% vs RHH: 27.3%
K% vs LHH: 30.1%

So, yeah, there's something to the notion that he is using good FA velocity and a good CH to slay inexperienced LHH at the MiLB level.

Is this because MiLB hitters haven't seen enough CHs to adjust? Will AAA hitters expose this?

I could foresee a scenario where Anderson comes up to make his MLB debut, the opposing team stacks their lineup with LHH, and Anderson mows them down with his good CH until word gets out that he has reverse splits.

Or...he is Kevin Gausman without a breaking ball.
 
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Enscheff said:
Since the CH is used vs LHH, and the CU is used against RHH, I would expect Anderson to show better K numbers vs LHH than RHH if the CH is significantly better than the CU.

2019 (AA)
K% vs RHH: 29.7%
K% vs LHH: 33.9%

2018 (A+/AA)
K% vs RHH: 26.2%
K% vs LHH: 31.1%

2017 (A)
K% vs RHH: 27.3%
K% vs LHH: 30.1%

So, yeah, there's something to the notion that he is using good FA velocity and a good CH to slay inexperienced LHH at the MiLB level.

Is this because MiLB hitters haven't seen enough CHs to adjust? Will AAA hitters expose this?

I could foresee a scenario where Anderson comes up to make his MLB debut, the opposing team stacks their lineup with LHH, and Anderson mows them down with his good CH until word gets out that he has reverse splits.

Or...he is Kevin Gausman without a breaking ball.
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What about that ELITE extension though?
 
CJ9 said:
Evaluating college catchers in their draft year isn't a good way to do it. I'm certainly not a huge fan of the Langeliers pick, but he started the season at Baylor in mid-February, and he's not used to playing this long. Add in the hamate injury this year, and I don't think the stats this year mean anything for him.
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I agree. I think the defensive aspect of the game changes dramatically when a catcher goes pro as well. There's a lot more to think about in the pros than in the college game.
 
I’m at the point where I’ve stopped caring about Wright’s minor league stats. He needs to prove it at the big league level.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Why
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It's only a small sample but he hasnt looked good in the majors.

Only 4 starts and i'd imagine he'll get a bigger look when rosters expand but i'm with Slippy, wanna see him do well in a big league start or two. Would do alot for the big league team moving forward if so.
 
Tapate50 said:
What about that ELITE extension though?
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I'm sure extension necessarily causes fastballs to be "perceived" as having higher velocity or not (in all or most cases), but it could certainly be a contributing factor to his success.

Folks are assuming batters don't start tracking a ball until it leaves the pitcher's hand, which is probably not completely accurate in all (or most) cases. What if batters track/time a pitch much earlier than the time of release? If that's the case, then where the pitcher releases the ball would have very little impact on "perceived" velocity.

Does work exist that shows the effects of perceived velocity vs actual velocity?
 
4 mlb starts. He is still maturing as a pitcher. I have no problems with him coming up and getting exposed and then taking that knowledge to improve against weaker opponents. I am always interested in his minor league starts.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
4 mlb starts. He is still maturing as a pitcher. I have no problems with him coming up and getting exposed and then taking that knowledge to improve against weaker opponents. I am always interested in his minor league starts.
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The issue is, when he was drafted as a polished college starter he was already considered a matured pitcher.

This isn't him getting drafted out of high school like Soroka. Someone like Strasburg made an immediate impact. Wright was drafted pretty high so he should be making an impact soon.

It took Minor a few years to be above average. He was drafted around the same situation as Wright.
 
I’m having a hard time believing what I’m hearing on Anderson.It seems like AA is a stathead gm that’s a pretty smart guy, so why would the Braves not sell high on Anderson if the numbers do in fact make it seem like he’s a mirage and will get exposed in mlb similar to what happened to Allard?
I just don’t think AA is that dumb.
 
Buzzworm said:
I’m having a hard time believing what I’m hearing on Anderson.It seems like AA is a stathead gm that’s a pretty smart guy, so why would the Braves not sell high on Anderson if the numbers do in fact make it seem like he’s a mirage and will get exposed in mlb similar to what happened to Allard?
I just don’t think AA is that dumb.
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AA did say he doens't wanna make hte mistake of trading off big prospects that he made in Toronto.

Maybe he's overcompensating by not trading IA and taking the gamble that he isn't a bust.
 
Individual-1 said:
AA did say he doens't wanna make hte mistake of trading off big prospects that he made in Toronto.

Maybe he's overcompensating by not trading IA and taking the gamble that he isn't a bust.
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Could be but if that’s the case then he won’t be our Gm very long if he busts.
After we wasted Allard’s value by not selling high, we really can’t afford not to get value out of Anderson or Wright since they are the last hopes of the current patch of Braves way prospects to get an ace via development or trade.That would be a pretty fatal error since we have shown and said we aren’t spending big on a Ace in free agency and won’t commit to long term deals.
 
Buzzworm said:
Could be but if that’s the case then he won’t be our Gm very long if he busts.
After we wasted Allard’s value by not selling high, we really can’t afford not to get value out of Anderson or Wright since they are the last hopes of the current patch of Braves way prospects to get an ace via development or trade.That would be a pretty fatal error since we have shown and said we aren’t spending big on a Ace in free agency and won’t commit to long term deals.
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Allard's value was already dropping by the time AA was GM. Fangraphs had him at 41st overall with a 55 FV. He was down to 50 and out of the top 100 by the time AA was hired. It was already out that he just wasn't very good.
 
thewupk said:
Allard's value was already dropping by the time AA was GM. Fangraphs had him at 41st overall with a 55 FV. He was down to 50 and out of the top 100 by the time AA was hired. It was already out that he just wasn't very good.
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I agree, should have said the Braves wasted and not AA.
 
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