As much as I think the hawks in the Trump administration would lie about Iran being behind the attacks on Saudi Arabia, they're almost certainly right this time. The level of sophistication (drone and cruise missiles) points directly to Iran. Even if it was the Yemeni rebels, there's no way they could carry that attack out without Iran's direct aid.
We're rapidly approaching a crossroads with Iran. The sanctions are causing economic devastation, however, Iran has a huge bargaining chip. If there's a war, a huge portion of the global oil supply is jeopardized. Much of Saudi Arabia's oil production is within range of Iranian missiles. The Straight of Hormuz sees 1/5 of the world's oil pass through it. If the region destabilized, the price of oil would spike and likely send an already shaky global economy into a bad recession. Iran also knows the US is gearing up for a presidential election. The last thing Trump would want would be sky high gas prices and a stumbling economy.
That being said, if Iran did go to war, things would not go well for them. Currently, Iran has very little money coming in and its cash on hand is speculated to only cover a few more months. Iran literally cannot afford to go to war. Especially not one that lasts more than a few weeks.
This will be an interesting situation to watch over the coming weeks.
