Global Events & Politics Überthread

The really odd thing is that you seem to think that exiting the deal makes this less likely.

When new sanctions are imposed there will be less free cash flow so while it doesn't remove it we are still squeezing the leaderships ability to fund it.
 
As if that is the only reason why we should pull out of the deal.


John Harwood
‏Verified account @JohnJHarwood
11m11 minutes ago

GOP chair of House Armed Services subcomittee: “without proof that Iran

is in violation of the agreement, it is a mistake to fully withdraw from this deal”
 
Haaretz: https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east...nctions-on-iran-a-crisis-for-the-eu-1.6071851

This scenario could well be the biggest diplomatic dilemma in the European Union’s history. The EU is also a signatory, but EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini – a valiant cheerleader for the Iran deal – will be powerless if the leaders of Britain, France and Germany won’t agree on a joint policy. Theresa May, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel will each have to make independent decisions on whether to defy the United States and join a new Iran deal without the Americans, or fall in line with the Trump administration.

This is a momentous decision for the main Western European nations. Do they act against their own stated policies, or open up an unprecedented rift between Europe and the United States? The stakes are particularly high for “Brexit Britain,” which is on course to leave the EU next year. If France and Germany stick with the JCPOA, despite Trump, Prime Minister May’s government will have to decide which relationship they are more loath to jeopardize.

The stakes are particularly high for Britain, as London is still a major global financial hub both for banks and insurance companies. The City of London played a central role in imposing the sanctions on Iran at the start of the decade – and will be crucial in either renewing the sanctions or trying to counteract them, should Britain join the international coalition trying to save the Iran deal.

For Iran, and for Russia and China as well, a major crisis in the U.S.-European relationship, potentially endangering NATO’s cohesion, would be a huge achievement. On its own, it could be a worthwhile incentive for Iran to remain within the JCPOA framework, despite the United States pulling out.
 
Yeah, and pretty much everyone who expressed trepidation about at the time recognizes half a loaf being better than none and opposes leaving it.

But, sure, let's trust the Bolton crew. They've never steered us wrong.

My point, which I'll emphasize again, is that we should focus more on the policy and less on the names.

Or what Congresspeople 'think' - because let's be honest about what that actually means.
 
My point, which I'll emphasize again, is that we should focus more on the policy and less on the names.

Or what Congresspeople 'think' - because let's be honest about what that actually means.

That's a fair point. My point, names aside, is that the policy increases the chances of more war in the region, whether by proxy or directly.
 
Going forward, other countries will have to give more consideration to whether any agreement with a U.S. president will be honored by his successor(s).

I say this as someone who is not a fan of Obama's policy toward Iran.
 
Going forward, other countries will have to give more consideration to whether any agreement with a U.S. president will be honored by his successor(s).

I say this as someone who is not a fan of Obama's policy toward Iran.

That wasn't considered prior to this?
 
My point, which I'll emphasize again, is that we should focus more on the policy and less on the names.

Or what Congresspeople 'think' - because let's be honest about what that actually means.


I think the names should be a focus.
With the track record of the parties of course we have to measure the source

Who's word do you take/trust that there were/are violations that warrant this action ?
 
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I think the names should be a focus.
With the track record of the parties of course we have to measure the source

Who's word do you take/trust that there were/are violations that warrant this action ?

You really think this is about violations?

I bet you have a picture of Hans Blix hanging in your living room.
 
Hope thethe is happy when the Iranians have a nuclear missile tomorrow pointed at Israel (jk, but I think this decision was a mistake).

To nsacpi’s point, I think people knew that after the Paris Accord stuff. Before that was kinda “eh, prolly not going to change anything majorly”.
 
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That would just prove we needed to kill the deal.

I hope they try and attack israel. Iranian leadership would get blown out o existence and the Iranian people would be free

You’re right, it would. It should be at least two months of “safety” from them becoming a nuclear power
 
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Reasonable reaction by reasonable people. Why should we ever not trust them?
 
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