Global Events & Politics Überthread

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Its is absolutely pathetic that you guys are (a) trusting Iran & (b) taking their 'side' in this decision.

You want to get in bed with that regime? Be my guest.

Again, no one trusts them, we trust international observers. If I lock a tornado shelter and remove your access to the keys but let you have a match, I trust you’re going to have a hard time entering even if I don’t trust you. Terrible example but I know no one in the US actually trusts Iran

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

So while they are enriching within the legal limits they can become more efficient and specialized in the process. It was a joke of a provision.

But they were intentionally forced to use inefficient (1950s) kinds of equipment/methods to make the lowly enriched uranium due to the presence of observers.

This is a lost cause. I can’t convince you that the regulations were strict enough to prevent nuclear weapons during the deal but that it’s not hard to get nuclear material outside of the deal if no one is watching

 

[thethe]

Again, no one trusts them, we trust international observers. If I lock a tornado shelter and remove your access to the keys but let you have a match, I trust you’re going to have a hard time entering even if I don’t trust you. Terrible example but I know no one in the US actually trusts Iran

You are going to defend the 24 day window for an announced visit? Come on man - These are not good people. To trust that everything is normal with them is a fools errand.

 

[Hawk]

Considering what just happened I think non binding agreement was fair

Ok, but by the same token, why is departure from a "non-binding agreement" so indicative of impulsive "unpredictability", as you inferred upthread?

 

[Hawk]

I hope y’all are ready for a less reasonable North Korea. This is exactly what Bush did to them in the early 2000s

What are you referring to here?

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

Ok, but by the same token, why is departure from a "non-binding agreement" so indicative of impulsive "unpredictability", as you inferred upthread?

Because it’s weird to enter nonbinding agreements about serious things that last 25 years and leave them 3 years later.

 

[The Tariff King]

Nuclear material cannot be cleaned up in less than 24 days.

I mean there's a reason nuclear scientists and IAEA helped construct this plan. Because they know you can't just sweep nuclear material under the rug without any trace.


thethe knows more than these nuclear scientists just like he knows more than climate scientists.

 

[Hawk]

Because it’s weird to enter nonbinding agreements about serious things that last 25 years and leave them 3 years later.

I think that "non-binding", by nature, kind of mutes the level of seriousness.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

What are you referring to here?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...-why-did-bill-clintons-north-korea-deal-fail/

The difference in that deal was that North Korea was actually cheating because observations weren’t good enough, unlike Iran’s “cheating” which was being a supporter of terrorism. In both situations the other parties in the treaty were mad at us for leaving it though.

 

[Hawk]

Nuclear material cannot be cleaned up in less than 24 days.

I mean there's a reason nuclear scientists and IAEA helped construct this plan. Because they know you can't just sweep nuclear material under the rug without any trace.

What about if it was hidden on a military base?

There wouldn't need to be a clean up.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-idUSKCN1B918E

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

I think that "non-binding", by nature, kind of mutes the level of seriousness.

I think having nuclear in the title makes it serious by default...but I see where you’re coming from

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

What about if it was hidden on a military base?

There wouldn't need to be a clean up.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-idUSKCN1B918E

They still need access to Uranium. All the mines with Uranium were being observed. If supplies went missing, it would be obvious

 

[The Tariff King]

https://youtu.be/txQwHFeeDtM

https://youtu.be/H0I4jRGTvFE


DEEP STATE

 

[thethe]

The inherent flaw with the deal is that it is made with a murderous regime that wants the destruction of the US and Israel.

This is laughable watching you guys trying to defend it because Obama entered into it.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

My basic point on this is that we took a problem that was 20 years away and just made it immediately urgent. It reminds me of DACA

 

[Hawk]

They still need access to Uranium. All the mines with Uranium were being observed. If supplies went missing, it would be obvious

They could get it from the North Koreans. Or Russia (by some sort of proxy).

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

The inherent flaw with the deal is that it is made with a murderous regime that wants the destruction of the US and Israel.

This is laughable watching you guys trying to defend it because Obama entered into it.

I’m defending it because nuclear inspectors/every country other than US and Israel liked it but agree with Trump that the sunset clauses had issues that were 20 years away. Regime change could have happened in that time too, you know.

 

[thethe]

I’m defending it because nuclear inspectors/every country other than US and Israel liked it but agree with Trump that the sunset clauses had issues that were 20 years away. Regime change could have happened in that time too, you know.

Not when we do nothing to support the peoples uprising.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

They could get it from the North Koreans. Or Russia (by some sort of proxy).

There’s a lot of stuff that would have to happen to make that a reality and it would be hard to hide with a bunch of guys with radiation detectors in Iran and our military bases surrounding it. I’m going to trust the observers who said it was 99-100% impossible

 

[Hawk]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wa...-why-did-bill-clintons-north-korea-deal-fail/

The difference in that deal was that North Korea was actually cheating because observations weren’t good enough, unlike Iran’s “cheating” which was being a supporter of terrorism. In both situations the other parties in the treaty were mad at us for leaving it though.

Interestingly, former Clinton administration officials have said they knew North Korea was cheating on the uranium enrichment front dating back to 1998 and planned to use that intelligence as leverage to keep the Agreed Framework in place and the plutonium under lock and key. Other Clinton administration officials will also concede that they never thought they would have to build the light-water reactors because they assumed, wrongly, that the regime would collapse before the reactors would be built.

North Korea was cheating because they could. Because they had already received concessions, funds, equipment. Bush stopped adhering to the terms of the deal - which was to give them even more equipment, even more money.

Of course, North Korea used that money (extracted, by the way, from South Korea, the United States, AND Japan) to build their current nuclear arsenal.