Global Events & Politics Überthread
- Thread starter Hawk
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striker42
Well-known member
I think Putin is more vulnerable to a coup than some think. Here's why:
1. Putin has surrounded himself with yes men- Putin's advisors have been telling him what he wants to hear for a long time. "We'll be welcomed into Ukraine as liberators" "The West will never put meaningful sanctions on us" "The Russian army is incredibly powerful, well trained, and well equipped". This let Putin to step into a quagmire that is Ukraine. Putin is now not happy. He's already started having people around him arrested. That breeds fear in people in positions of power, people with access to Putin. It might be easier for these supposedly loyal, like minded people to remove Putin than it would be to suffer his wrath.
2. He's denied the keptocrats their luxurious lifestyles- The elite in the government might all still be wealthy but a lot of them enjoyed luxurious lifestyles abroad. They can no longer dine in Paris or go skiing in Austria. Much of the loyalty Putin gained was gained through his ability to give these boons to his people. When they are denied, the loyalty erodes.
3. Billionaires are powerful no matter what- I've read numerous articles discounting the influence of the wealthy oligarchs. The articles say they are dependent upon Putin for their positions and wield little power. This isn't quite true. They are dependent upon the system for their positions, not Putin. Swapping in someone who will uphold the system but re-establish ties with the west would be desirable to them. As for power, money buys power. You need political power? It can allow you to give bribes. You need martial power? Mercenaries are still a thing.
The ingredients for a coup are there. That doesn't mean one will materialize but I think Putin isn't as coup proof as some try to say.
1. Putin has surrounded himself with yes men- Putin's advisors have been telling him what he wants to hear for a long time. "We'll be welcomed into Ukraine as liberators" "The West will never put meaningful sanctions on us" "The Russian army is incredibly powerful, well trained, and well equipped". This let Putin to step into a quagmire that is Ukraine. Putin is now not happy. He's already started having people around him arrested. That breeds fear in people in positions of power, people with access to Putin. It might be easier for these supposedly loyal, like minded people to remove Putin than it would be to suffer his wrath.
2. He's denied the keptocrats their luxurious lifestyles- The elite in the government might all still be wealthy but a lot of them enjoyed luxurious lifestyles abroad. They can no longer dine in Paris or go skiing in Austria. Much of the loyalty Putin gained was gained through his ability to give these boons to his people. When they are denied, the loyalty erodes.
3. Billionaires are powerful no matter what- I've read numerous articles discounting the influence of the wealthy oligarchs. The articles say they are dependent upon Putin for their positions and wield little power. This isn't quite true. They are dependent upon the system for their positions, not Putin. Swapping in someone who will uphold the system but re-establish ties with the west would be desirable to them. As for power, money buys power. You need political power? It can allow you to give bribes. You need martial power? Mercenaries are still a thing.
The ingredients for a coup are there. That doesn't mean one will materialize but I think Putin isn't as coup proof as some try to say.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
This whole fiasco is what happens when a not-too-smart man prone to paranoia and delusional thinking comes to power and surrounds himself with a bunch of sycophants. It is an enormous tragedy and strategic blunder of the first magnitude. I don't hold out much hope Putin will be gone anytime soon. Unfortunately for the Russian people, this means a long period of isolation. The economic costs to Russia are going to be very large.
striker42
Well-known member
One thing I forgot to mention is the ambition of those around him. If Putin shows weakness, it's an opportunity for someone to take his place.
I don't think a coup is likely but I don't think it's far fetched. Let's just say if I wake up one morning to read Putin has had a "stroke" then I won't be surprised.
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
Looking at polling numbers for this conflict is hilarious
Not as hilarious as trumps response on what he would do was the funniest ever
But overall, it shows the public wants to say they want to be tougher but are mostly all on board with what’s been done and don’t want to escalate it past that. Thus, they would mostly all do what he has already done/is doing
sturg33
I
Don't you worry we will get that war you want so much.
The propaganda machine is in full swing and it is inevitable. The American people in general can't resist killing others. It's what got you out of your cowardly hiding, after all
[TW]1507193027244175370[/TW]
lol. So much to take in here.
lol. So much to take in here.
Yeah, this is a much less dumb way of making my point. I don’t think she’s a Russian operative either, but she just has a particularly impressive talent for finding the exact take that helps Putin in basically every situation.
57Brave
Well-known member
I and most would argue our policy concerning Russia is not nor has ever been regime change but as was the case post WWII containment.
As poor as the Russians are at conquering, conquering Russia via military or diplomatic/espionage means is and has for centuries been far more impossible
you could look that up or take Rand Paul's or any of the performance artists you seem attracted to word.
As poor as the Russians are at conquering, conquering Russia via military or diplomatic/espionage means is and has for centuries been far more impossible
you could look that up or take Rand Paul's or any of the performance artists you seem attracted to word.
Sanctions are regime change policy.
If you don't understand that then I'm not sure what to say.
57Brave
Well-known member
57Brave
Well-known member
break type and dont say nuthin
you spent one minute considering the post WWII history of US-Russo relations
So what is she saying that you would classify as propaganda. You seem very sure of the fact that she is pushing it. I would think it would be very easy for you or anyone else to articulate.