Global Events & Politics Überthread

thethe said:
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Monsters running the west are not only CORRUPT. They are also incompetent.
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Russia is doing everything they can to prop the Ruble up. Russia isn't powerless to push back on sanctions. The question is whether their resistance is sustainable. The longer they go as a pariah the worse it will get for them.
 
striker42 said:
Russia is doing everything they can to prop the Ruble up. Russia isn't powerless to push back on sanctions. The question is whether their resistance is sustainable. The longer they go as a pariah the worse it will get for them.
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I don't know Striker.

The new global re-alignment changes the calculus a lot.

I've made my feelings clear how we have bungled this whole process.

Putin being the tyrant that he is made things immeasurably worse with his actions. I just try to look at it from the enemies perspective and I'm not sure what other choices he had with an encroaching NATO and a 'leader' of Ukraine that wanted it more than even the West did.
 
striker42 said:
Russia is doing everything they can to prop the Ruble up. Russia isn't powerless to push back on sanctions. The question is whether their resistance is sustainable. The longer they go as a pariah the worse it will get for them.
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Actually if you think about it oil/gas is mostly not sanctioned. So their main exports are not much affected. However, it is a bitch trying to import anything into Russia. That's a combination that favors any currency. Then there is the possibility that it is more difficult for oligarchs to conduct business as usual (which for them consists of moving part of their wealth to safe havens outside the country). So less capital flight. Also favorable for the ruble.

I would look at the stock price of certain companies (such as Aeroflot) as a better indicator of what Putin's war and subsequent sanctions mean for the Russian economy.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AFLT:MCX?window=1Y

Russia is a poor backwards place. And it is going to become a poorer more backwards place.

If the war and sanctions drag on for years, they could end up becoming a very large version of North Korea. They have oil and gas which will prevent them from going fully in that direction. But they will end up as a vassal and appendage of China. Vlad the Dim's lack of geopolitical acuity is sending them down that cul de sac. It will be left to some future leader to find a way out.

It is also worth noting that China has historically claimed territory above the current border at the Amur River. And Japan still regards the Kuril islands as theirs. Other countries (Georgia, Kazakstan, etc) have various bones to pick with Russia. The opportunity could present itself for some scores to be settled.

I've been to Siberia a few times. There are lots of people living there that don't look too Russian to me. I imagine that the families of non-Russian boys being drafted are even less enthusiastic than Ivan's parents are about their sons being sent off to be be slaughtered. Btw Ivan is likely to be an only child, which makes his death all the more difficult for the family. It is also why so many conscripts are non-Russians. They are the ones with multi-children families. These things will catch up with Vlad. He is too much of a dim bulb to realize it. I think there is a good chance Russia ends up being reduced in size geographically as part of the fallout from his war.
 
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Dont' worry - We will have smarter leadership in the US moving forward that will bring Russia back into the fray and away from the CCP.
 
nsacpi said:
Actually if you think about it oil/gas is mostly not sanctioned. So their main exports are not much affected. However, it is a bitch trying to import anything into Russia. That's a combination that favors any currency. Then there is the possibility that it is more difficult for oligarchs to conduct business as usual (which for them consists of moving part of their wealth to safe havens outside the country). So less capital flight. Also favorable for the ruble.

I would look at the stock price of certain companies (such as Aeroflot) as a better indicator of what Putin's war and subsequent sanctions mean for the Russian economy.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AFLT:MCX?window=1Y

Russia is a poor backwards place. And it is going to become a poorer more backwards place.

If the war and sanctions drag on for years, they could end up becoming a very large version of North Korea. They have oil and gas which will prevent them from going fully in that direction. But they will end up as a vassal and appendage of China. Vlad the Dim's lack of geopolitical acuity is sending them down that cul de sac. It will be left to some future leader to find a way out.
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They've also banned people dumping the Ruble so there are a lot of people who would rather not be holding the Ruble that can't sell which is propping it up big time. But measures like that are toxic long term.

You also have Russia trying to get people to pay for oil and gas in Rubles which is a dead giveaway of how much strain the Ruble is under.

I think they end up as a client state of China as well. If Europe can cut off their dependence on Russian energy, Russia will have no choice but to fall under China's sphere of influence.
 
striker42 said:
They've also banned people dumping the Ruble so there are a lot of people who would rather not be holding the Ruble that can't sell which is propping it up big time. But measures like that are toxic long term.

You also have Russia trying to get people to pay for oil and gas in Rubles which is a dead giveaway of how much strain the Ruble is under.

I think they end up as a client state of China as well. If Europe can cut off their dependence on Russian energy, Russia will have no choice but to fall under China's sphere of influence.
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China's gas station. Genghis Khan's heirs will be enjoying their bowls of wonton soup in Moscow.
 
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thethe said:
I'm sure this prognostication will work out as well as your others....
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As I understand it you have also argued that the sanctions will drive Russia to a closer and more dependent relationship with China. I think we can all see that. There is a certain inexorable logic to it. It is not good for us and Europe. And very bad for Russia. China is the beneficiary.

Russia is a poor backwards country about to get quite a bit more poor and backwards. It is nothing short of a monumental unforced geopolitical error by Vlad the Dim. One that could well lead to the geographical diminution of Russia. As an additional matter becoming more poor and backwards will likely accelerate all sorts of unfavorable social and demographic trends.
 
nsacpi said:
As I understand it you have also argued that the sanctions will drive Russia to a closer and more dependent relationship with China. I think we can all see that. There is a certain inexorable logic to it. It is not good for us and Europe. And very bad for Russia. China is the beneficiary.

Russia is poor backwards country about to get quite a bit more poor and backwards. It is nothing short of a monumental unforced geopolitical error by Vlad the Dim. One that could well lead to the geographical diminution of Russia. As an additional matter becoming more poor and backwards will likely accelerate all sorts of unfavorable social and demographic trends.
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The awful leadership of the West was continually pushing Putin to this so what other option did he have at this point? This was the inevitable conclusion of terrible foreign policy of the Obama team.

Sit back while the West continually sucks the life out of the country and seed another coup?

But like I said - THis will all change when the corrupt Western Oligarchy is out of power. Russia is a natural ally as they share common core values with America. Just need bad leaders like Obama/Putin to be set aside. Problem is we are ****ing up our relationship with the RUSSIAN PEOPLE while you cheer it on like a dim bulb.
 
thethe said:
The awful leadership of the West was continually pushing Putin to this so what other option did he have at this point? This was the inevitable conclusion of terrible foreign policy of the Obama team.

Sit back while the West continually sucks the life out of the country and seed another coup?

But like I said - THis will all change when the corrupt Western Oligarchy is out of power. Russia is a natural ally as they share common core values with America. Just need bad leaders like Obama/Putin to be set aside. Problem is we are ****ing up our relationship with the RUSSIAN PEOPLE while you cheer it on like a dim bulb.
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When someone thinks with his glands and bases policy on some mystical concept of Russia that no one else shares there is not much we can do. Can't save people from themselves.
 
nsacpi said:
When someone thinks with his glands and bases policy on some mystical concept of Russia that no one else shares there is not much we can do. Can't save people from themselves.
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Yeah - The Obama foreign policy doctrine was definitely 'fair' to Russia & Putin. Expecting a world leader to respond in a way you want them to is about as childish as it gets.

Trump understood these things. The new MAGA movement understands these things. We see the world for what it is and not what we want it to be.

Step aside old man.
 
Btw, this war is going to lead to a lot of changes that we'll watch and wonder about. A militarily more muscular Germany. Could be good could be bad. I would not make strong assumptions either way.

There is also a natural alliance between Poland, Ukraine and maybe Romania. Combined population 100 million. Could throw in the Baltics and FINLAND. They are going to look around and ask whether they should count on the Germans, Americans, French, etc. to guarantee their security. They will in all likelihood take steps to become less dependent on those sorts of external security guarantees. Could be a good thing could be bad. But I think those horses have left the stable. Thanks to Vlad the Dim.
 
striker42 said:
They've also banned people dumping the Ruble so there are a lot of people who would rather not be holding the Ruble that can't sell which is propping it up big time. But measures like that are toxic long term.

You also have Russia trying to get people to pay for oil and gas in Rubles which is a dead giveaway of how much strain the Ruble is under.

I think they end up as a client state of China as well. If Europe can cut off their dependence on Russian energy, Russia will have no choice but to fall under China's sphere of influence.
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That's the thing. There are people who would be shedding the ruble if they could.

Russia still has a chance to rejoin the free world. Just start a revolution. Sadly it's easier for Russians to just leave and go start another life elsewhere as Putin is extremely wealthy and powerful and even if the upper echelon of Russia revolts and kill him, another sycophant will just take their place.
 
zitothebrave said:
That's the thing. There are people who would be shedding the ruble if they could.

Russia still has a chance to rejoin the free world. Just start a revolution. Sadly it's easier for Russians to just leave and go start another life elsewhere as Putin is extremely wealthy and powerful and even if the upper echelon of Russia revolts and kill him, another sycophant will just take their place.
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There is such a thing as national character. The Russians are a peculiar combination of mystical, passive and cynical. They are willing to put up with more than most people. But like everyone else they have their limits.
 
BERLIN — Germany’s foreign intelligence service claims to have intercepted radio communications in which Russian soldiers discuss carrying out indiscriminate killings in Ukraine.

In two separate communications, Russian soldiers described questioning Ukrainian soldiers as well as civilians and then shooting them, according to an intelligence official familiar with the findings who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

The findings, first reported by the German magazine Der Spiegel and confirmed by three people briefed on the information, further undermine Russia’s denials of involvement in the carnage. Russia has claimed variously that atrocities are being carried out only after its soldiers leave occupied areas or that scenes of massacres of civilians are “staged.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/07/bucha-german-intelligence-radio-bnd-russia/
 
Start a revolution?

That is the most juvenile suggestion anyone can make.

What if the person/group that arises from a revolution is worse?
 
nsacpi said:
BERLIN — Germany’s foreign intelligence service claims to have intercepted radio communications in which Russian soldiers discuss carrying out indiscriminate killings in Ukraine.

In two separate communications, Russian soldiers described questioning Ukrainian soldiers as well as civilians and then shooting them, according to an intelligence official familiar with the findings who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

The findings, first reported by the German magazine Der Spiegel and confirmed by three people briefed on the information, further undermine Russia’s denials of involvement in the carnage. Russia has claimed variously that atrocities are being carried out only after its soldiers leave occupied areas or that scenes of massacres of civilians are “staged.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/07/bucha-german-intelligence-radio-bnd-russia/
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Ah - the reliable Der Speigel and our German friends.....
 
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