Global Events & Politics Überthread

Ex-Prime Minister Abe Shinzo was just shot in Japan. Crazy times. He isn't dead yet, but I think he was already pretty sick.
 
thethe said:
It’ll be interesting to see the comparison between the khassogi killing and Abe who almost certainly was killed by order of the ccp.
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Gotta wait for more info before making any real conclusions but the early evidence makes me doubt it was a government that did this.

First, the CCP certainly wouldn't be sad about Abe dying but killing him now would be an odd move and likely counterproductive. He wasn't prime minister anymore due to his health. While he was influential, the people actually in power largely shared his politics so killing Abe doesn't really change anything. In fact, it probably just pushes Japan further towards Abe's party.

Next, this was a pretty sloppy assassination that I'm honestly surprised was successful. The biggest thing to me is the weapon. The photos show the gun was homemade. It was two pipes taped to a board with a grip attached and what looks to be an electric ignition. That's a very risky gun. You're almost certainly looking at a muzzle loader. If this guy used too little powder it wouldn't be strong enough to kill, too much and he has a pipe bomb in his hands.

Also, any problem with the gun and you're not going to be successful. If the end caps aren't strong enough the only person he'd have hurt was himself. The electronic firing mechanism is also a failure point. If one of the connections is jostled loose, it doesn't fire.

Another failure point is accuracy. Firing slugs from a muzzle loading improvised sawed off shotgun is going to be wildly inaccurate. The shooter was reportedly 15 feet away when he fired. That's really close if you're shooting with an actual gun but with an improvised gun like this guy was using, even marksmen are probably just pulling the trigger and hoping for the best.

The lack of accuracy and the nature of that weapon also made getting close and getting some space absolutely necessary. There was no guarantee this guy was going to get that close to Abe. Japanese political security is apparently pretty lax but there was still no guarantee he'd get a good shot. That weapon was probably not one you can just shove through a gap in the crowd and fire accurately. This guy needed to be close with enough room to draw, steady it, and get off two shots. It's another failure point.

I'd be surprised if the CCP was behind an attempt with so many failure points.

Ultimately there's enough crazy in this world that's more than capable of trying something like this. This would just be a monumentally risky move by the CCP for a very meager payoff.
 
striker42 said:
Gotta wait for more info before making any real conclusions but the early evidence makes me doubt it was a government that did this.

First, the CCP certainly wouldn't be sad about Abe dying but killing him now would be an odd move and likely counterproductive. He wasn't prime minister anymore due to his health. While he was influential, the people actually in power largely shared his politics so killing Abe doesn't really change anything. In fact, it probably just pushes Japan further towards Abe's party.

Next, this was a pretty sloppy assassination that I'm honestly surprised was successful. The biggest thing to me is the weapon. The photos show the gun was homemade. It was two pipes taped to a board with a grip attached and what looks to be an electric ignition. That's a very risky gun. You're almost certainly looking at a muzzle loader. If this guy used too little powder it wouldn't be strong enough to kill, too much and he has a pipe bomb in his hands.

Also, any problem with the gun and you're not going to be successful. If the end caps aren't strong enough the only person he'd have hurt was himself. The electronic firing mechanism is also a failure point. If one of the connections is jostled loose, it doesn't fire.

Another failure point is accuracy. Firing slugs from a muzzle loading improvised sawed off shotgun is going to be wildly inaccurate. The shooter was reportedly 15 feet away when he fired. That's really close if you're shooting with an actual gun but with an improvised gun like this guy was using, even marksmen are probably just pulling the trigger and hoping for the best.

The lack of accuracy and the nature of that weapon also made getting close and getting some space absolutely necessary. There was no guarantee this guy was going to get that close to Abe. Japanese political security is apparently pretty lax but there was still no guarantee he'd get a good shot. That weapon was probably not one you can just shove through a gap in the crowd and fire accurately. This guy needed to be close with enough room to draw, steady it, and get off two shots. It's another failure point.

I'd be surprised if the CCP was behind an attempt with so many failure points.

Ultimately there's enough crazy in this world that's more than capable of trying something like this. This would just be a monumentally risky move by the CCP for a very meager payoff.
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Anyone who commissions an assassination would ensure that nothing could tie back to them including the method of killing.

CCP is more emboldened than they ever have been since they have their puppet in the Oval Office and the whole world focused on Russia and crushing their economies.
 
striker42 said:
Go away completely? No. That will take longer than a generation. Move off our heavy reliance on fossil fuels? I think we're a generation away from that.

And it'll go in stages. We're already seeing movements away from coal and towards nuclear, solar, hydroelectric, wind, etc. Most major auto manufacturers are planning on moving towards electric vehicles and away from gas. After that we'll see things like semi-trucks move to electric. We're even seeing electric aircraft pushes.

It'll take longer for other things. Mining to use your example. We're farther away from no longer being reliant on massive diesel heavy machinery. Shipping is another area. The sheer lifespan of cargo ships will mean they will lag behind the curve.

But I think we'll see a massive reduction in our reliance on fossil fuels. It wont even have to be motivated by environmentalism. The tech is reaching the point where market forces are pushing towards cheaper, virtually limitless sources of energy.

That massive reduction in reliance will make for significantly less demand meaning significantly lower prices for fossil fuels. That's bad news for economies reliant on fossil fuel income.
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The big factor is that in some cases electric is already better than the alternatives. Other than possibly a mower I'll never buy a gas yard tool again, battery powered is just too reliable compared to finicky small engines. Electric cars are significantly better than gas for city delivery and commuting. Infrastructure spending to build out a few thousand high speed chargers along the interstates would make them universally better for everything smaller than a semi.

It's really just battery capacity and charge time holding them back from heavy equipment use. Unfortunately, artificially inflating the cost of gas does nothing to bridge that gap, and significantly increases the cost of everything that relies on heavy machinery. This is where environmental politics create problems for environmental policy. Whoever it was in the Biden administration that came up with the harebrained idea of artificial supply side inflation of gas before the heavy tech is ready, they just pushed public sentiment towards electric backwards about 10 years. With the momentum that Tesla and now the big auto manufacturers had built up, it was just unnecessary and unproductive. Probably sounds great to brag about at DC cocktail parties though.
 
thethe said:
Anyone who commissions an assassination would ensure that nothing could tie back to them including the method of killing.

CCP is more emboldened than they ever have been since they have their puppet in the Oval Office and the whole world focused on Russia and crushing their economies.
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Ensuring nothing can be linked back to you is easier said than done. I just don't see the CCP taking the risk of an assassination attempt being traced back to them on the off chance that this lone man with an improvised gun happens to be successful all for the payoff of killing a guy who isn't even the leader of Japan anymore.
 
It's surprisingly easy to make a decent single shot firearm using pipe. The last time I checked there were lots of guides on YouTube, Instructables, etc.
 
striker42 said:
Ensuring nothing can be linked back to you is easier said than done. I just don't see the CCP taking the risk of an assassination attempt being traced back to them on the off chance that this lone man with an improvised gun happens to be successful all for the payoff of killing a guy who isn't even the leader of Japan anymore.
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I get the argument that the risks are high for the CCP but thats only if you believe the world will hold them accountable and if we learned anything from the CCP virus we know that won't happen.
 
Jaw said:
It's surprisingly easy to make a decent single shot firearm using pipe. The last time I checked there were lots of guides on YouTube, Instructables, etc.
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The 'anarchists cookbook' was widely circulated when I was a kid and that detailed pretty much everything. Not sure if there is some equivalent in distribution.
 
Jaw said:
It's surprisingly easy to make a decent single shot firearm using pipe. The last time I checked there were lots of guides on YouTube, Instructables, etc.
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You can make a single shot firearm that is effective at destroying pretty easily, no doubt. Making one that's accurate and reliable is harder. Generally if you're using one it's an up close weapon and you're taking your life into your hands when you do it. There's no shortage of news stories of homemade guns exploding in people's hands. They can absolutely work but they're an extremely poor weapon for an assassination attempt at 15 feet away.
 
[tw]1545396727917731840[/tw]

Could you be any more of a prick to inject this madness into this situation?
 
striker42 said:
You can make a single shot firearm that is effective at destroying pretty easily, no doubt. Making one that's accurate and reliable is harder. Generally if you're using one it's an up close weapon and you're taking your life into your hands when you do it. There's no shortage of news stories of homemade guns exploding in people's hands. They can absolutely work but they're an extremely poor weapon for an assassination attempt at 15 feet away.
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Well... it worked.
 
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