Global Events & Politics Überthread

striker42 said:
I very much doubt Ukraine is admitted to NATO. Admission to NATO requires unanimous agreement by member states. That's not happening. Turkey would object as would Hungary. I'm not even sure you'd get all the major players to agree as many are facing a pretty grim winter already.
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Its a negotiation ploy but a dangerous one.

Everything the West has done is in the spirt of escalation. I've told you from the beginning that this was a wag the dog exercise.

The world is crumbling and the established order knows its facing its end. THis was a means to 'distract' people from how bad things are.
 
Putin's plan here could be pretty clever. I suspect he doesn't want to use nukes. He's been working hard to keep a number of large countries neutral on the war and so still willing to buy Russian oil and other resources. Countries like India, South Africa, and Brazil would almost certainly abandon Russia if Putin did this. There's a good bet China would even snap back on Putin if he did it.

By mobilizing he's getting hundreds of thousands of fresh bodies to throw at the front lines. While they'll be poorly equipped and poorly trained, they'll still be armed. By annexing these regions, Putin can also do things like draft soldiers from these regions and can send conscripts to fight there (conscripts are only supposed to fight on Russian soil so he can sell it as legal now).

I think Putin wants to try to freeze the lines. It's already getting wet and muddy in Ukraine making moving men and equipment more difficult. That makes it harder for the Ukrainians to advance. Once winter hits it will be very difficult to continue an offensive.

Putin knows support for Ukraine in the west is flagging and the western militaries are starting to run low on supplies they can spare to send to Ukraine. If he can get the lines to freeze until winter sets in, he knows he can sit with his gains while Europe goes through an energy crisis, the US goes through elections, a war fatigue gets worse and worse.

He also knows the west finds the idea of using nukes absolutely abhorrent. So the more he throws around the threat of using nukes the more uncomfortable he makes western leaders and western citizens for that matter. The last week we've already seen multiple op-eds in major papers advocating a diplomatic solution even if it means letting Putin keep his gains.

Putin knows he doesn't have to outlast Ukraine's dedication to the war. He just has to outlast the west's dedication to it. If the western powers tell Kiev to seek peace because the weapons supply is going to dry up, then Ukraine has little option but to agree.

There's a fear that Putin will use any time period of peace to re-arm. He'll undoubtedly try but I'm not convinced it will very easy for him. He spent two decades building up the Russian military and it has been chewed to pieces in less than a year. He's going to find sourcing parts even more difficult in a rebuild attempt. Russia might not be terribly combat effective for years.

In any event, Putin can see the signs of cracks in the west's will and ability to keep this war going. He just needs time for it to fall apart.
 
WASHINGTON—The Biden administration has received a rare request from Cuba’s government to provide emergency assistance following the devastating impact of Hurricane Ian, according to communications reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

No exact amount was requested, and the U.S. was still trying to determine whether the government in Havana would supplement the request as it works to determine the extent of the damage, according to the email communications. The storm killed at least two people in Cuba and left the country without power.

The request comes as Cuba’s longtime supporter Russia struggles with the war in Ukraine and international sanctions while Havana contends with its worst economic crisis in three decades.

The emails suggested that the U.S. continued to engage with Havana to determine how much assistance was needed, and the U.S. has assessed that Cuban authorities would place priority on hospitals, water pumping facilities, sanitation and other critical infrastructure if Washington were to provide aid.

The State Department didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The White House National Security Council declined to comment. The Cuban government didn’t immediately reply to a request seeking comment.

“If Cuba asks for humanitarian aid and the U.S. gives it to them, that would be a real breakthrough,” says William LeoGrande, an expert on Cuba at American University in Washington.

On other occasions when Cuba has suffered from hurricanes, the U.S. has offered humanitarian aid, but Cuba has turned it down. “Fidel’s position was that Cuba would not take charity from a country that had an economic blockade against it,” says Mr. LeoGrande, referring to the late former Cuban leader Fidel Castro. “He did not want to justify the embargo.”

The Cuban request suggests that Russia, which has been a supporter of Cuba in past disasters, is in no shape to do so because of the war in Ukraine, Mr. LeoGrande said.

When a fire in August at the port of Matanzas destroyed much of Cuba’s most important fuel terminal, Russia, Mexico and Venezuela stepped in to help Havana. At the time, the U.S. offered technical assistance. Cuba said it was thankful of the offer, but the U.S. said Cuba didn’t formally make any aid requests. The U.S. Agency for International Development ultimately provided the Cuban government with 43 sets of firefighting gear and is procuring additional gear to send.

Cuba’s economy is laboring through its roughest stretch in three decades. People stand in long lines for hours seeking scarce basic foods. Many medicines are difficult to find, while power outages are common and extend for more than 14 hours.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-m...er-devastation-from-hurricane-ian-11664581112
 
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/10/france-facts-of-the-day.html

France will spend €45bn ($43bn) next year on state subsidies to keep energy costs down…A small cut in business taxes has been spread over two years. The budget, as he pointed out, still does “a little too much” to support the use of fossil fuel…

French public finances will remain stretched. Next year sees no drop in the expected budget deficit, which will remain at 5% of gdp, or €159bn, the same level as in 2022. Public debt will remain at an alarmingly high 111% of gdp, .MEDEF, a business lobby, criticised the budget for a “lack of ambition” on public spending. Mr Le Maire has promised to curb the deficit to 3%, in line with euro-zone rules, but not until 2027. The current deficit level puts France closer to Spain than to Germany.

France spends about 14% of gdp on public pensions, compared with an OECD average of 8%.

…


Here is more from The Economist. By most measures, the French budget situation could be considered worse than that of the UK, and furthermore France has less room to raise taxes in the future. And across those two countries, which way is the migration flow for skilled labor? Is that about to reverse? And yet it is the current UK government that is taking such a PR whacking…



 
It is pretty rare to see a card carrying libertarian assume a position of responsibility. Will be interesting to see how things turn out.
 
What a shock that Bolsanaro outperformed the suppression polls.

Also shocker that every single data dump after the initial showing bolsabaro up big were all heavily slanted in Lulas favor. Dude is an actual criminal and can’t campaign yet somehow gets all these votes.

The system is a joke and the longer we play along the longer it runs and the more entrenched it becomes.
 
Interesting that Bolsanaro 'lost' and yet the down ballot tickets show a big win for his candidates.

Where have we seen that before?

What systems are used in Brazilian elections? What type of influence does the CCP have on Lula?

Wake up guys.
 
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And when those regions overwhelming vote to go to Russia please explain how this was different than my original position?

But if its up to people like BL many more will die and have died because of their 'GET PUTIN' focus.
 
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Globalist bot machine out in full force. How could you ever respond 'No' for this?
 
When do I get to vote on which country I am in? No one acknowledges any election put on by Putin. You probably think he was democratically elected.
 
The system told them to care so now they care a lot.

When the system wants to move on like they did with COVID, the seals will move like they did with COVID and will care a lot about the next thing

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Notice how the software never puts them against the atrocities the CCP commit.

There is a reason for that.
 
And now zelensky attacking musk for proposing a peaceful solution and an end to people dying. Now why is it do you think they don’t want to end the war?

Our world is an absolute joke right now.
 
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