Gohara Starting Tonight

Horsehide Harry said:
40 man

At some point the FO is going to lose a player or more (either already on the team or a player it would like to take a chance on but can't) because it must protect them or lose them. In season, this isn't as a big a deal. However out of season when you're trying to bring in possibilities as a rebuilding team it limits your options. And the Braves are limiting their options for no good reason other than what Enscheff said ... somebody has made enough poor decisions that more poor decisions are needed to save their asses.
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They would have needed to add Gohara this offseason anyways, so the 40 man discussion is irrelevant in this context.
 
chop2chip said:
They would have needed to add Gohara this offseason anyways, so the 40 man discussion is irrelevant in this context.
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In this case yes. But in almost all others no.

It isn't normally a big deal but a rebuilding team needs to be able to protect all it can, build as many options as it can, take chances on players with upside, have flexibility. The Braves are trying to rush the rebuild and in doing so are limiting themselves. It's always possible that even if they didn't limit themselves nothing would change, no revelations would be found in the fringe or discard bin. But, if you never give yourself a chance to find out then the possibilities tend to 0.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
In this case yes. But in almost all others no.

It isn't normally a big deal but a rebuilding team needs to be able to protect all it can, build as many options as it can, take chances on players with upside, have flexibility. The Braves are trying to rush the rebuild and in doing so are limiting themselves. It's always possible that even if they didn't limit themselves nothing would change, no revelations would be found in the fringe or discard bin. But, if you never give yourself a chance to find out then the possibilities tend to 0.
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What specific players are you referring to then ? I can't think of a specific instance where they screwed the pooch with respect to the 40 (a silver lining when your roster has a lot of crappy veterans on one year contracts).
 
Horsehide Harry said:
40 man

At some point the FO is going to lose a player or more (either already on the team or a player it would like to take a chance on but can't) because it must protect them or lose them. In season, this isn't as a big a deal. However out of season when you're trying to bring in possibilities as a rebuilding team it limits your options. And the Braves are limiting their options for no good reason other than what Enscheff said ... somebody has made enough poor decisions that more poor decisions are needed to save their asses.
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Gohara has to go on the 40-man this off-season, so that's not really big in the calculus here. It's not like we don't have a few guys we just put on waivers who aren't going to be in our 2018 plans anyway.

I'm more worried about how much weight he'll gain now that he's getting big league meal money.
 
50PoundHead said:
Gohara has to go on the 40-man this off-season, so that's not really big in the calculus here. It's not like we don't have a few guys we just put on waivers who aren't going to be in our 2018 plans anyway.
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But, but, but...

admitting that completely misses another chance to bitch for no reason.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Either that or they are showcasing Fried and Gohara to try to trade in the offseason.
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That is a possibility. We'll have 5 guys in Allard, Wright, Soroka, Gohara, and Fried who will all be major league ready at some point next season. You could easily trade 2 of them, combined with what we have already in Julio/Folty/Newcomb and another wave still to come in Touki/Wentz/Anderson/Wilson/Muller.

What I don't know in reference to Gohara is how we're looking at his lack of innings. Does it mean we'll have to baby him next year or do we think he can actually log some innings? The way we view that might be what we do with Gohara.
 
chop2chip said:
"There is literally no reason..."

Do you still think that even if this decision doesn't affect Gohara's service clock?

In other words, I don't see the reason to lose a year of control with Gohara over a handful of September starts, but I think the idea is just fine if we get one or two and he starts next season in AAA.
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And what's the upside? Getting to see him in September? Why? There are already 6 SPs on the roster.

Downside? He gets hurt and wastes 2 years of service time on the DL.

I don't see the risk vs reward making any sense.
 
Chico said:
He can't get hurt in AAA?
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AAA season is over.

And if he is hurt in AAA he doesn't burn service time while rehabbing.

What else you got? What possible benefit is there to having him start tonight other than justifying the rebuild?
 
Enscheff said:
AAA season is over.

And if he is hurt in AAA he doesn't burn service time while rehabbing.

What else you got?
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Nothing...I don't have an agenda either way.

Yes, the AAA season being over is partly why he is up. He needs to get innings if we plan on using him next year. One could argue that he could go to the AFL for that. Like I said I don't have an agenda either way.
 
Chico said:
Nothing...I don't have an agenda either way.

Yes, the AAA season being over is partly why he is up. He needs to get innings if we plan on using him next year. One could argue that he could go to the AFL for that. Like I said I don't have an agenda either way.
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Gohara pitched 70 innings in 2016, and 123 innings this year. That is already a big leap in innings pitched, and would put him on pace to jump to 170-180 next year.

These promotions have been accelerated to justify the rebuild and save jobs.

Or do the Braves really need 7 SPs on the roster in a losing season?
 
Enscheff said:
And what's the upside? Getting to see him in September? Why? There are already 6 SPs on the roster.

Downside? He gets hurt and wastes 2 years of service time on the DL.

I don't see the risk vs reward making any sense.
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I could try to throw a few justifications for calling him up out there, but I'm sure you already know them. Truth is I am not sure what the upside is, if any. I am simply arguing the downside is relatively mitigated, so I don't see the point of getting too worked up about it.

The type of hurt your implying is Tommy John I take it. Well if he breaks his elbow tonight, then it was going to happen either way. Edit: I see your point about service time in this instance and it's extremely valid. Definitely a point in favor of avoiding this entirely.
 
Good, the end of the season should be about seeing the young kids, given that Gohara is already in AAA and needs to be added to the 40-man roster anyway; I really don't see the big problem with this.

Its not a bad thing to get his feet wet in the majors and its certainly something that can be used as a learning experience to grow from in the off-season.

What I'd like to see happen is for the Braves to shut-down Dickey the rest of the way and really devote all the innings to finding what we have with Fried, Gohara, Sims, Newk, Folty ..... maybe even skip a couple JT starts - although I doubt that will happen.
 
chop2chip said:
I could try to throw a few justifications for calling him up out there, but I'm sure you already know them. Truth is I am not sure what the upside is, if any. I am simply arguing the downside is relatively mitigated, so I don't see the point of getting too worked up about it.

The type of hurt your implying is Tommy John I take it. Well if he breaks his elbow tonight, then it was going to happen either way. Edit: I see your point about service time in this instance and it's extremely valid. Definitely a point in favor of avoiding this entirely.
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It's not that I think Gohara blowing his elbow out during 90 MLB pitches is very likely at all.

The point is there's no upside. The Braves have 6 SPs on the roster. This is a lost season, so who cares if Sims sucks. Who cares if Newk walks 6 guys every game, or Fried gets pounded by RHed hitters? Those guys are old enough that they need to be given time at the MLB level to "show what they have".

There is only downside, even if the chance is small. This is another sub-optimal move in a long list of sub-optimal moves. They just keep coming...endlessly...with no sign of stopping.

Compared to the Swanson and Albies promotions, this move isn't that bad. But it's not good, and just because a move isn't Swanson/Albies level stupid doesn't mean it's ok.

Or have we set the bar that low already for this FO? If the move isn't guaranteed to cost the Braves $10M in surplus value, it's ok?
 
Enscheff said:
It's not that I think Gohara blowing his elbow out during 90 MLB pitches is very likely at all.

The point is there's no upside. The Braves have 6 SPs on the roster. This is a lost season, so who cares if Sims sucks. Who cares if Newk walks 6 guys every game, or Fried gets pounded by RHed hitters?

There is only downside, even if the chance is small. This is another sub-optimal move in a long list of sub-optimal moves. They just keep coming...endlessly...with no sign of stopping.

Compared to the Swanson and Albies promotions, this move isn't that bad. But it's not good, and just because a move isn't Swanson/Albies level stupid doesn't mean it's ok.

Or have we set the bar that low already for this FO? If the move isn't guaranteed to cost the Braves $10M in surplus value, it's ok?
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Your definition of optimality is based on expected values, right? Well previous to your excellent point of burning service time on the DL I didn't really see how this move moved the needle one way or the other, so as a fan I was just excited to see a player in very optimistic for (and I will always favor major league call ups because I principally hate the current service time system that incentivizes teams from playing their best, most exciting players).

But even with a very small possibility of injury, the potential downside is so enormous such that it outweighs any superfluous upside possibility. So thanks ensheff, now I have to watch tonight's game with a small bit of contempt.
 
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