Grading Schwellenbach's Stuff

MLB pitchers sometimes have good starts even if they don't have top shelf stuff. We saw Elder have an amazing half season based on nothing but smoke, mirrors, and a lot of luck. The results were great, but anyone paying attention to the actual pitch data understood it wasn't real. So while it was awesome to see Schwelly have a great start, it doesn't change much about the tools he has to get hitters out. Guys with pristine command like Maddux, Glavine or Greinke are extremely rare, and the quality of the pitches gives a pitcher more margin for error.

Having said that, I like the pieces Schwelly has to work with more than what Waldrep brings to the table.
 
The thing that confuses me about Waldrep's splitter is how bad it's looked. Prior to his MLB debut I feel like it was pretty much a unanimous opinion that his splitter was a legit 80 grade pitch only held back by his lack of command, and given how many people would've seen him pitch at UF and in the CWS, it's hard to square that with the splitter we've seen him throw since he was called up. It makes me wonder if something is off for him and he's capable of more. Definitely unlikely, I just can't wrap my head around that many people seeing his MLB splitter and calling it elite.
 
The thing about the data on Waldrep's split is it represents the average movement. If the split moves unpredictably like a knuckleball, then the average movement of the pitch is irrelevant. If it moves 4" glove-side with 6" of drop on one pitch, then moves 2" arm-side with 2" of drop the next, the unpredictability of the pitch may be what causes it to be effective...just like a knuckleball, and the average movement is a meaningless value.

Pure hypothetical, but something to maybe consider.
 
Enscheff said:
The thing about the data on Waldrep's split is it represents the average movement. If the split moves unpredictably like a knuckleball, then the average movement of the pitch is irrelevant. If it moves 4" glove-side with 6" of drop on one pitch, then moves 2" arm-side with 2" of drop the next, the unpredictability of the pitch may be what causes it to be effective...just like a knuckleball, and the average movement is a meaningless value.

Pure hypothetical, but something to maybe consider.
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Interesting. So let's say that's the case. Could he make some mechanical or grip adjustments to his other pitches to make them play better or would he need something like another pitch
 
Slippyjms said:
Interesting. So let's say that's the case. Could he make some mechanical or grip adjustments to his other pitches to make them play better or would he need something like another pitch
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I'm not as much of a savant as most about the data but seeing him in the minors, none of his pitches other than the splitter seemed to be a threat to me. It hasn't had the same shape at all in the majors. I don't know what to think.
 
Deester11 said:
I'm not as much of a savant as most about the data but seeing him in the minors, none of his pitches other than the splitter seemed to be a threat to me. It hasn't had the same shape at all in the majors. I don't know what to think.
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I guess I'm wondering if the split is what's special how hard would it be to tweak the 4 seam to maybe a sinker and the slider to maybe a sweeper at this point in his career
 
I haven’t heard of guys changing the spin axis at the MLB level, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done. Waldreps issue is he can’t generate much spin, so nothing he changes can make the ball move much more.

I also haven’t heard of guys at the MLB level increasing spin, but maybe it can happen? Definitely not something I would put too much hope in though.
 
Enscheff said:
Schwellenbach made his debut, and early on he looked really good by the eye test. My old grading metrics are several years old and likely out of date for modern pitchers, so I'm going to do this a little differently and rank each aspect of his pitches compared to all pitchers who have thrown at least 10 of that pitch this season. Rather than using positive and negative values for movement, I'm going to follow Baseball Savant's convention of Vertical Movement without Gravity (which can be negative if the spin actually creates additional sink), and ARM/GLV direction for horizontal movement. Then rather than trying to grade based on standard deviation, I'll just give the rank compared to all qualifying peers.

FA: 95.9 mph (93 of 498), 12.3" Vert (454 of 498), 5.1" Arm (392 of 498)

This FA falls into that group of fastballs that used to confuse people 20 years ago when a guy threw hard and they couldn't figure out why he still got smashed. The movement profile on this FA is definitely an issue, and he should not be throwing it 34% of the time.

CU: 79.9 mph (92 of 203), -4.7" Vert (173 of 203), 10.3" Glv (80 of 203)

The CU is also nothing to write home about, and it has more slurve action than the traditional downer action we see from guys like Fried.

SL: 86.8 mph (199 of 402), -5.1" Vert (10 of 402), 5.2" Glv (172 of 402)

This is the pitch he will have to rely on to get guys out, and he should probably be throwing it more than 19% of the time. So far it's his only plus pitch.

FC: 91.8 mph (30 of 206), 8.8" Vert (141 of 206), 1.8" Glv (118 of 206)

A cutter with good velocity and mediocre movement is something that can be relied upon. I expect it will tunnel pretty well with that slider, and it will also help the 4-seamer play up.

CH: 83.9 mph, -1.5 Vert (14 of 313), 8.3" Arm (308 of 313)

This is a very interesting change, and it's too bad he only threw it 5 times. It seems to move like a traditional splitter with straight down movement that must appear to fall of the table. This pitch has the potential to be a real problem for hitters.

Overall: I think what stood out on TV was the velocity and the good slider, and I commented on the slider during the game thread. It is definitely his best pitch. The FA needs to be spotted and used more sparingly while the FC and SL carry the majority of the workload. The curve doesn't seem to bring much to the table, and it's really just a slower slider, so like most pitchers who throw both there isn't really a point. If he can dial in that change the batter will have a very hard time deciding what to swing at between the slider and change.

Without the change he's pretty much a slider specialist out of the BP. With the change at full strength he can probably turn the lineup over a couple times and be a solid 3/4. As always, elite command can make all these pitches play up, but it's too early to tell on that.
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So what's happened since?

FA: 96.0 mph, 13.4" Vert, 5.7" Arm

He's maintained the velocity on this pitch while adding 1" of rise and 0.5" arm-side run. He has also reduced his usage to 26.8% from 34%, which is exactly what I wanted to see happen with this pitch.

SL: 87.0 mph, -3.7" Vert, 4.2" Glv

This was his only plus pitch, and I wanted him to throw it more. It's now his 2nd most used pitch, but it has taken a step back in movement profile.

FC: 92.7 mph, 9.6" Vert, 1.7" Glv

This pitch was solid, and now he's added a tick of velocity to it. This should be his workhorse pitch that makes everything else play up. I wonder if throwing this harder and more often has caused him to lose some bite on the SL.

CU: 80.3 mph, -6.7" Vert, 9.3" Glv

He's added 2" of downward movement to this pitch, which makes its movement profile more different from the SL than it was previously.

FS: 84.3 mph, 0.5" Vert, 9.4" Arm

I described his change as a split, and now it's being classified as a split. He barely threw it, and now he throws it 14% of the time. I said it had potential to be a problem for hitters, and now it's a problem for hitters.

SI: 95.1 mph (114 of 512), 6.7" Vert (362 of 512), 14.9" Arm (275 of 512)

This pitch is new. He only throws it 7.5% of the time. It is an average sinker and is another average pitch hitters need to worry about.

Overall

Schwelly reduced the usage of the mediocre FA, refined the the break on his CU, increased the usage of his good SL, learned to rely more on the downer Split, added velocity to the quality Cutter, and added a decent Sinker...then paired it all with excellent command. This is how a guy goes from a 3/4 to a 2/3 by "learning how to pitch". I don't think it's unreasonable to argue about him possibly growing into a legit TOR now with his .274 xwOBA showing how good he's been. Sale at .258 is a bonafide CYA caliber Ace, and Schwelly is definitely in the realm of a #2 without the track record to declare him legit just yet.
 
The splitter is a devastating pitch to lefties when he can start in down the middle and let it drift down and away from lefties. I have a feeling he will learn how to use it against righties too.. I wonder if fatigue is starting to set in with Schwelly causing some command issue (last two games) and some movement drop. Good stuff cheff.. regardless.
 
Schwellenbach's curve and split have a 45% whiff rate which is what the whiff rate is on Sale's slider. He uses those two almost exclusively to LH hitters. His slider which he throws to RH hitters has a 30% whiff rate. His fastball seems like a surprise pitch. He has so much good off speed pitches that it's hard for hitters to be prepared for 97-98. I don't see what value he gets from his cutter. Gets an okay whiff rate but gets hammered and doesn't result in a lot of outs.
 
Good stuff as always Cheff. SS has been the biggest story imo on the year. We needed another big starter next year losing Fried and we may have found it for the league minimum which will allow us to upgrade somewhere else.
 
I wonder if Morton comes back.

Having Sale-Strider-SS-Morton would be solid. Still sad we're gonna lose Fried though.
 
The Chosen One said:
I wonder if Morton comes back.

Having Sale-Strider-SS-Morton would be solid. Still sad we're gonna lose Fried though.
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I am not totally against it, but he'd have to come back for pretty cheap just to be a 5th starter. There is simply no way to justify spending 15-20 million on pitcher who pitches more like a 4/5 at this stage of his career. His stuff has clearly declined this year. Would he come back for around 5-10 million to chase another ring as a No. 5 starter?
 
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