Smyly's stuff supposedly took a big step forward in 2020, and the improvement has mostly been attributed to health. Here's what he threw.
FA: 93.9 mph (Grade 60), 3.3" xMov (Grade 40), 9.6" zMov (Grade 60)
This is a grade 60+ heater with plus velocity and plus rise. Increasing from 91 to almost 94 on the FA is huge, as this is the pitch everything else plays off. If the new velocity sticks around for 2021, even if they have to limit his workload to make that happen, his chances of being an impact arm are much better than if he's sitting at 91.
CU: 80.2 mph (Grade 55), 2.0" xMov (Grade 40), -3.2" zMov (Grade 45)
When I saw this I thought I was looking at bad data. A CU that breaks in the same arm-side direction as the FA? I almost stopped writing this post, until I read this article from FG: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/drew-smyly-cashes-in/
"His over-the-top throwing motion combined with some unique spin makes it appear to fade away from right-handed batters — almost like a screwball."
His CU doesn't appear to fade away arm-side, it literally does fade away arm-side, exactly like a screwball we almost never see in MLB. Since we have no data on screw balls, this pitch can't really be graded by this method. This pitch acts more like a CH in his overall arsenal as the off speed pitch that breaks away from RHH.
FC: 89.5 mph (Grade 55/60), -0.4" xMov (Grade 40), 5.0" zMov (Grade 40/45)
This cutter is very clearly his 3rd best pitch, and serves as his breaking ball away from LHH. His over the top motion makes it hard to get good lateral movement on pitches, so this pitch is what it is at this point: an average-ish MLB pitch that serves it's purpose.
Command: 2.85 career BB/9, 3.08 in 2020
Aside from his poor 2019 when coming back from TJS, Smyly has consistently shown average to plus control using BB/9 as a proxy. He largely got back to that in 2020 after "shaking off the rust" (I hate baseball cliches, even when accurate), so it stands to reason he should have similarly average or better command moving forward.
Overall:
AA just added a SP with 2 plus pitches (we can't grade the CU, but the results tell us it is plus), and a very useable 3rd pitch with average or better control. That's the definition of a #3 SP with upside to look better if the command is plus or better. The issue with Smyly will obviously be health, and whether or not that velocity uptick is sustainable. That extra 2-3 mph is the difference between him being a legit impact #3 or backend filler.
FA: 93.9 mph (Grade 60), 3.3" xMov (Grade 40), 9.6" zMov (Grade 60)
This is a grade 60+ heater with plus velocity and plus rise. Increasing from 91 to almost 94 on the FA is huge, as this is the pitch everything else plays off. If the new velocity sticks around for 2021, even if they have to limit his workload to make that happen, his chances of being an impact arm are much better than if he's sitting at 91.
CU: 80.2 mph (Grade 55), 2.0" xMov (Grade 40), -3.2" zMov (Grade 45)
When I saw this I thought I was looking at bad data. A CU that breaks in the same arm-side direction as the FA? I almost stopped writing this post, until I read this article from FG: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/drew-smyly-cashes-in/
"His over-the-top throwing motion combined with some unique spin makes it appear to fade away from right-handed batters — almost like a screwball."
His CU doesn't appear to fade away arm-side, it literally does fade away arm-side, exactly like a screwball we almost never see in MLB. Since we have no data on screw balls, this pitch can't really be graded by this method. This pitch acts more like a CH in his overall arsenal as the off speed pitch that breaks away from RHH.
FC: 89.5 mph (Grade 55/60), -0.4" xMov (Grade 40), 5.0" zMov (Grade 40/45)
This cutter is very clearly his 3rd best pitch, and serves as his breaking ball away from LHH. His over the top motion makes it hard to get good lateral movement on pitches, so this pitch is what it is at this point: an average-ish MLB pitch that serves it's purpose.
Command: 2.85 career BB/9, 3.08 in 2020
Aside from his poor 2019 when coming back from TJS, Smyly has consistently shown average to plus control using BB/9 as a proxy. He largely got back to that in 2020 after "shaking off the rust" (I hate baseball cliches, even when accurate), so it stands to reason he should have similarly average or better command moving forward.
Overall:
AA just added a SP with 2 plus pitches (we can't grade the CU, but the results tell us it is plus), and a very useable 3rd pitch with average or better control. That's the definition of a #3 SP with upside to look better if the command is plus or better. The issue with Smyly will obviously be health, and whether or not that velocity uptick is sustainable. That extra 2-3 mph is the difference between him being a legit impact #3 or backend filler.
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