Grading Ynoa's stuff

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
Ynoa has thrown 350 pitches over 27 IP this season, and his results have been amazing. His 2.69 ERA really happened, and really helped the Braves win, so no stat can change that fact. However, what we can look at is how well he is likely to perform moving forward.

The first step in that is to take a look at his arsenal.

FA: 96.7 mph (Grade 65), 4.5" X-Mov (Grade 45), 8.8" Z-Mov (Grade 50)

Plus velocity with movement that is roughly average. The numbers show what we see when he pitches...this heater is plus or better.

SL: 84.9 mph (Grade 50), 1.4" X-Mov (Grade 45), -4.1" Z-Mov (Grade 75)

Ynoa's single breaking ball is a downer slider, or maybe some would call it a power curve. Whatever you call the pitch, it is plus or better.

CH: 8.8 mph delta (Grade 55), 8.0" X-Mov (Grade 55), 4.7" Z-Mov (50)

By far his 3rd most used pitch, the CH has the shape of an above average offering. As is the case with most 2-pitch guys, the development of this pitch will be key to sustained success as a SP.

Command: 1.98 BB/9 (Grade 70)

The key to Ynoa's improvement has been his excellent control in 2021. This type of control allows a 2-pitch guy to perform like a #3 without needing a CH.

Overall:

Ynoa's sterling 2.69 ERA comes with some pretty big warning lights. His .348 xwOBA (compared to his actual .278 wOBA allowed) suggests he has performed more like a #5 who has lucked into the results of a TOR SP. His .230 BABIP against suggests the same thing, as does his 88.9% LOB%. When the batted balls stop being caught, and the runners on stop being stranded at these unsustainable rates, his overall results will suffer.

To me, he looks like a prototypical high leverage BP arm who is being stretched out to cover up innings. He can be a true #3 or better if the command holds and the CH continues to develop. If this team had it's real SPs all performing as expected, Ynoa's best role would probably be as the RHP compliment to Will Smith at the end of games.
 
Enscheff said:
Ynoa has thrown 350 pitches over 27 IP this season, and his results have been amazing. His 2.69 ERA really happened, and really helped the Braves win, so no stat can change that fact. However, what we can look at is how well he is likely to perform moving forward.

The first step in that is to take a look at his arsenal.

FA: 96.7 mph (Grade 65), 4.5" X-Mov (Grade 45), 8.8" Z-Mov (Grade 50)

Plus velocity with movement that is roughly average. The numbers show what we see when he pitches...this heater is plus or better.

SL: 84.9 mph (Grade 50), 1.4" X-Mov (Grade 45), -4.1" Z-Mov (Grade 75)

Ynoa's single breaking ball is a downer slider, or maybe some would call it a power curve. Whatever you call the pitch, it is plus or better.

CH: 8.8 mph delta (Grade 55), 8.0" X-Mov (Grade 55), 4.7" Z-Mov (50)

By far his 3rd most used pitch, the CH has the shape of an above average offering. As is the case with most 2-pitch guys, the development of this pitch will be key to sustained success as a SP.

Command: 1.98 BB/9 (Grade 70)

The key to Ynoa's improvement has been his excellent control in 2021. This type of control allows a 2-pitch guy to perform like a #3 without needing a CH.

Overall:

Ynoa's sterling 2.69 ERA comes with some pretty big warning lights. His .348 xwOBA (compared to his actual .278 wOBA allowed) suggests he has performed more like a #5 who has lucked into the results of a TOR SP. His .230 BABIP against suggests the same thing, as does his 88.9% LOB%. When the batted balls stop being caught, and the runners on stop being stranded at these unsustainable rates, his overall results will suffer.

To me, he looks like a prototypical high leverage BP arm who is being stretched out to cover up innings. He can be a true #3 or better if the command holds and the CH continues to develop. If this team had it's real SPs all performing as expected, Ynoa's best role would probably be as the RHP compliment to Will Smith at the end of games.
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Thanks for doing this. I've been waiting to see your thoughts on Ynoa.

I see your xwOBA/wOBA gap, but up until that point, your synthesis seems more pessimistic than your data or your analysis. 55, 60, 55, 70 command, but it's fool's gold. I surely share your caution, but he's been damn good, and for the reasons you quantified - a Rolls Royce of a slider, plus other offerings and (most importantly) tremendously improved command. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but I'm going to hold out a candle that he's figured it out (while acknowledging that regression is likely).

He should see pretty decent results with that change as he gets comfortable with it. But the command is the thing that makes it all go.
 
I've found the biggest problem with grading CHs with this method is it doesn't capture the deception portion of the pitch in any way. It also doesn't capture the execution portion of any pitch in any way (precisely why Wright looks so good in this analysis, but can't get real results in games). So to me, a pitch that is thrown 7% of the time must have issues...either with telegraphing the pitch or executing it in the correct spots.

So that leaves us with a 2-pitch guy who has somehow improved his command by something like 3-4 full grades (from almost 5 BB/9 as a pro to 2) almost over night. Needless to say, that almost never happens. Kimbrel is the most recent example I can think of a guy who suddenly found control and became dominant, but even he didn't improve that much. It reminds me a bit of when Fried broke out with insanely improved control, and then regressed a bit as the season progressed. I wrote a post about his new elite control, and how it was unlikely to continue. His command was certainly improved, just not by the amount he flashed early.

So if Ynoa is truly a 2-pitch guy with command that has improved to average, we are looking at a poor man's Chris Archer. The story with Archer always revolved around that 3rd pitch, and how unlikely he was to be a TOR without one. Archer threw harder compared to the league than Ynoa does now (average MLB velo has increased by like 2+ mph since 2015), and his SL was even nastier (however, Ynoa's 2600+ rpm on the SL is amazing, and suggests there's room to tweak the spin axis). Peak Archer in 2015 posted a .283 xwOBA, which is a #2, and he steadily declined to a #4 or worse by 2018.

That's what I base my comp on....a worse version of Chris Archer as his ceiling...if the command holds at MLB average.

Now, if the command holds at 2 BB/9 and the CH comes around to be an effective 3rd pitch, the Braves have another TOR-type on their hands. I wouldn't count on all those ifs though.

However....Ynoa is only 22, so it's not out of the question he improves significantly in real ways.
 
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Guy was wild as a raccoon stuck in a conibear trap in the minors

The slider was still legit back then though
 
Been waiting for this breakdown and it definitely confirms what we've seen live- two plus or better pitches that can lead to good results if the control sticks around. Longevity and maximum value will all depend on the changeup developing.

I'm expecting that he ends up in the bullpen by the end of the year and honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him get some looks as a closer before the year is said and done. Fried-Morton-Anderson-Soroka-Smyly seems like a rotation that you can win with, and we are sorely missing a RH arm beyond Martin in the pen. Unfortunately Ynoa- like Martin- seems to have some significant reverse splits in his young career when what we really need is a RH with more traditional splits like O'Day or Greene.
 
I expect an IP limit to push Ynoa to the BP as much as anything else.

And you are 100% correct about the Braves not having a guy to get RHH out reliably in the BP. I can’t believe AA allowed the season to start with the BP in its current state.
 
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Thanks for the analysis.

In the game thread I said it would be great if he was a really good 5. I think he's a poor man's Jeff Samardzija. JS seemed to be a stuff 3. He had the stuff that made people dream but he wasn't consistent and it averaged out to a 3. I could see Ynoa being that way as a 4/5. I think the FB looks like people hit it ok and the velocity will dip over time. I think he'll give up some HRs. Some nights he'll look like a stud 3 but overall 4/5.

That said, one of the things that have surprised me with the Coppy strategy of arms is that it seems like guys either hit or busted. You'd think someone would just turn out ok.

IF Ynoa is a really good 5 under team control for 5 more years that is Awesome. Sure if he's better I'll take that. But having a really good 5 to go with Fried (assuming he's close to himself), Soroka (health) and Anderson would be amazing. We might be able to get out of the aging vet on a one year deal cycle we are on.

Then you take a guy like this in the playoffs out of your rotation and weaponize him in the pen.
 
Enscheff said:
I expect an IP limit to push Ynoa to the BP as much as anything else.

And you are 100% correct about the Braves not having a guy to get RHH out reliably in the BP. I can’t believe AA allowed the season to start with the BP in its current state.
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Agree 100% on the no RH options.

My only thoughts to mitigate the malpractice is he had to assume that at least one of Touki/Ynoa/Webb/cheap free agent would be a RH you could count on. I'm sure he thought RH RP is probably the easiest thing to get at the deadline. And Shane Greene clearly had lost the Braves' confidence last year.

So he had to think I have Martin, Touki/Ynoa/Webb/cheap free agent and I'll get a guy at the deadline. Problem is Martin and Touki are long term hurt. Injury put Ynoa into the rotation. I think Webb had an injury. Cheap free agent guys have pitched like scrap heap guys.
 
Glad to see the control has improved to the extent it has. He's always struck me as a guy who wasn't particularly wild, but just enough outside of the strike zone on pitches that warranted the batter taking the pitch. Kind of "gray area" wildness. But that's from the naked eye and I'll admit I've never looked at his pitch charts to see actual location.

I agree that logically he appears to be a high leverage bullpen asset in the long-term. I'm just going to enjoy what he's doing now. While he didn't exactly come out of nowhere, I didn't envision him pitching this well out of the gate in 2021.
 
50PoundHead said:
Glad to see the control has improved to the extent it has. He's always struck me as a guy who wasn't particularly wild, but just enough outside of the strike zone on pitches that warranted the batter taking the pitch. Kind of "gray area" wildness. But that's from the naked eye and I'll admit I've never looked at his pitch charts to see actual location.

I agree that logically he appears to be a high leverage bullpen asset in the long-term. I'm just going to enjoy what he's doing now. While he didn't exactly come out of nowhere, I didn't envision him pitching this well out of the gate in 2021.
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It would nice to see one of the many young arms the Braves have turn into a high leverage bullpen asset. It’s a little frustrating that all the arms haven’t yielded one really good homegrown bullpen piece.
 
JxnMissFan said:
It would nice to see one of the many young arms the Braves have turn into a high leverage bullpen asset. It’s a little frustrating that all the arms haven’t yielded one really good homegrown bullpen piece.
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Last I read, they were thinking of going that route with Kyle Muller.
 
JxnMissFan said:
It would nice to see one of the many young arms the Braves have turn into a high leverage bullpen asset. It’s a little frustrating that all the arms haven’t yielded one really good homegrown bullpen piece.
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They haven't allowed any of them to try.

Lucas Sims is just that.
 
He had one game where he threw his change a bit more. Could be he just had a better feel for it that day. But he was getting some swing and misses with it.
 
Not sure how impactful this is in his command but I’ve read multiple places this year Ynao had a significant change to his arm slot, so maybe a good bit of the improved command can be attributed to that.
 
Southcack77 said:
They haven't allowed any of them to try.

Lucas Sims is just that.
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Sims seems to be benefiting from the same strange phenomena that saw Bauer add like 500 rpm to his pitches. He's still walking everyone to boot. I rather doubt he's going to be a super effective reliever over the long term.
 
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