You are using the current version of Freeman to evaluate this statement. In terms of their prospect status Albies is better.
Grilli Close To Being Moved???
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You are using the current version of Freeman to evaluate this statement. In terms of their prospect status Albies is better.
No. I'm not. And I won't argue about it - others are welcome to. Albies is a good prospect. He's not what Freeman was as a prospect, and he's not what Heyward or Teheran were as prospects. He's just not.
And its not really even close.
Well then national publications were not on the Freeman train as quickly as they are on Albies.
The good news here is that our first 12 games after the all star break are against the cubs, dodgers, cards, and then Baltimore. So after we are most likely below .500 after that stretch it will put the playoff thoughts to bed for good (most likely even for unbridled homers like thethe).
The key thing with trading Grilli is we wouldn't even have to get a huge return in order to get players that would help us immensely. Certain of our positions are in terrible shape for the near future (C, 3B, LF), so even getting slightly above replacement level players under control for 5-6 years would be a huge improvement, and allow us to use our monetary resources more effectively elsewhere and make a better team in 2016 and 2017.
If we could get catchers like Austin Barnes from the Dodgers for Grilli or Andrew Susac from the Giants for Maybin it would put us in great shape at catcher even though both are borderline top 100 types. We are paying Markakis 11 mil a year to post 2-2.5 WAR, being able to likely get 2-3 WAR from Barnes/Susac for the minimum would be a huge value in general, and when you add in that we have crap for catchers in the minors right now it has even more value.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
100% agree
National publications, much like scouts really love guys with lots of tools, so guys like Freeman who lack defense and speed get undervalued as a result. Albies lacks power, but has all the rest of the tools, so he gets the hype train. I love Albies as a prospect and can't wait till he starting at 2B for us (hopefully by mid 2017), but he isn't close to the impact bat Freeman, and never will be.
If he was close to the type of bat that Freeman was he would be a top 5 prospect right now. But, he is going to be good at the plate, on the bases and supposedly great in the field. There is a reason as a 18 year old he is being billed as a potential top 25 prospect.
Right, he's valued so highly as a prospect for paying a premium position, having great speed, and having great defense. He's nowhere near Freeman as a prospect from a bat perspective. He has no pop, and at his size he won't get much more. His hit tool is great, but a guy like Freeman can produce 4-6 WAR easily on offense alone, where Albies will have to be elite with the glove and hit close to .320 to even be on the same level as Freddie is value due to Albies lack of power. That's not accounted for in some prospect ranking, and is why clv and GF are looking at you like you are crazy trying to claim he's on the same level as Freeman was as a prospect. The upside is simply not on the same level in the slightest. Now Albies floor is tremendously high, and he has a ton of value and will likely be a great player for us given the entire package, but his upside is not on the same level as a prospect as Freeman was.
I think the rankings get a bit out of hand with shortstop rankings. If you are a SS with a pulse, they put you in the top 100. I fully understand the reasoning, but, I pretty much echo what you said.
Yeah, middle infielders and catchers tend to really be out of hand (and to a lesser extent CF). A good example would be Fangraphs top 200 for the beginning of this year, they had catcher Blake Swihart as #9 on their list. Their analysis of Swihart basically says they expect him to be an average defensive catcher who will hit 15 HRs a year during his peak years. So basically their #9 prospect is a guy who is going to be a slightly above average catcher overall offensively. Not all top 10 prospects are equal, which is something I don't think thethe is getting. Ranking services will rank guys extremely highly if players have very low risk. Freeman was a high risk prospect because he was all bat, and that's why he was never top of the top like Heyward. Law in particular really didn't like Freeman I remember.
Albies is showing decent ISO numbers as a 18 year. Its very possible that he fills into his body more and becomes a guy who gets 55-65 XBH's a season. Couple that with his defense and baserunning you have an elite player.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
If Toronto is interested in Grilli I'd very much want to get catcher Max Pentecost from them. He's not just a very good prospect, he also went to the same high school as me here in Georgia, etc. Just not at the same time as I'm quite a bit older than him.
Thethe, did you bone giles'/sturge's mother or sister? It would explain their strange fascination with you.
The pride in me doesn't want us to be sellers but with what the FO did to start the season, I don't see why we wouldnt unload the vets now.get what you can and let the young guys learn on the job, but for me this is the problem..we have too much starting pitching as of now.I mean Folty isn't getting to start to see what we have and it looks like Jenkins is not far behind.With Perez coming off the DL soon, it seems like we are gonna have to make some hard choices.I know you can never have enough starting pitching but IMO it's non productive to have young starters that are ML ready that cant learn on the job and get some innings.I understand that we can always put Perez in the pen, and move Folty down again wih Jenkins to get innings and continue learning but I think it's about time to trade a starter for a bat, either a proven vet or some good prospects.I'd trade wood or Julio if it was up to me although Id rather move Wood more then Julio.I know some would say Folty but it's just so hard to give up on him because of things like last night.after he gave up the run, he looked dominate and you can't help but worry as soon as you trade him, he ends up getting it and becoming what he could be..hard choices for sure.
If you seriously think an ISO of .095 is decent I don't event know what stats you are looking at. A decent ISO is .150 Albies is 5'8-5'9 and 150 pounds and is halfway to 19 years old. There is a good chance he'll fill out and gets to 160-170 pounds. He could possibly if everything goes right turn into a guy that hits 10 HRs a year. But none of us are arguing that Albies doesn't have a chance to be very good or elite, we are just saying he won't be on the level of Freeman, like you were claiming.
Let me put it in perspective for you:
Freeman has had WAR of 4something and 5.0 the last two years, and was on pace for 5 again this year before getting injured. Jose Altuve is hitting .298/.342/.413 with an ISO of .115 and 7 HRs. That's about what I think Albies could do consistently at his peak (I think Albies will walk slightly more and could hit for a higher average here and there, but basically that range). Altuve also has +6 DRS this year. Even with all that Altuve currently on pace for a WAR just over 4 (2.2 WAR currently). So like I was saying, in order to be on the same level as Freeman Albies will have to hit .320 and be elite defensively, or hit .300ish and be Simmons quality elite with the glove. Either are possible for him, but not probable, and he'd be highly unlikely to do it as consistently as Freddie.
There are less than 50 guys in A ball that have a ISO greater than 150 and almost all of them are over 18.
For guys 20 and younger Albies is 42nd in all of A-Ball for ISO.
Take out 20 year olds and he is 21. Take out 19 year olds and he is #2.
This would be the #1 guy I'd be interested in us getting (semi realistic options anyway).
Well, the reason for this is fairly obvious. If you are an average defensive catcher who hits 15 HR a year, you are very valuable...more valuable than a 1B with average defense and 15 HR. If you ranked prospects on bat alone, it would be all 1B and LFs.
How did we make the value of Albies vs. Freeman a simple determination of who has more pop in their bat? Because 1B is loaded with bats at the ML level, you have to really rake to have much value there, especially if you don't offer anything else.
Freeman was really good two years ago and has been worth about 2-3 WAR his other years, on pace for about 3.5 WAR this year. He's good to very good and still may improve. But why would anyone think it's crazy for Albies to eventually become that valuable a player at the ML level?
Of course Albies won't hit 20+ HR. If that's your sole determination of a prospect or player, then sure, Albies will never be Freeman.
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