Guess the penalty

[striker42]

I would guarantee that every team could get hit with a penalty for international signings. Every year over half the top 30 guys have these handshake deals in place and immediately sign the morning of J2 opening. Any player who thinks they could bang out a few more bucks by turning on their team could do so.

MLB turns a blind eye to the handshake deals as it's kind of a necessary evil. Teams need to be able to know how to allocate money and bonus pool space in advance of the signing deadline. It's bundling that really gets MLB mad.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

MLB turns a blind eye to the handshake deals as it's kind of a necessary evil. Teams need to be able to know how to allocate money and bonus pool space in advance of the signing deadline. It's bundling that really gets MLB mad.

But there is all the fuss over Maitan and he was not bundled. He was over slot and I doubt we paid some other associated with his handler way over value.

 

[nsacpi]

But there is all the fuss over Maitan and he was not bundled. He was over slot and I doubt we paid some other associated with his handler way over value.

What we did with Maitan is advance him or his agent some of his bonus so he and his family could hide away in Florida. I don't think they would nullify the signing because of that. But you never know.

 

[Enscheff]

I would guarantee that every team could get hit with a penalty for international signings. Every year over half the top 30 guys have these handshake deals in place and immediately sign the morning of J2 opening. Any player who thinks they could bang out a few more bucks by turning on their team could do so.

Agreed. So MLB is stuck in a bad place.

On the one hand they made Boston forfeit players, so to remain consistent they have to do the same with the Braves. On the other hand, once a 2nd batch of players are allowed to get paid twice, suddenly a whole bunch of other players may decide to seize the opportunity to do the same thing.

MLB needs to fix this long term, not just make an example of the Braves in some naive hope it will make other teams behave.

 

[50PoundHead]

I said it a week or so ago but: loss of 2017 J2, loss of 2018 1st Rd (#8), fined $5M

I don't think they will lose the #8 pick, but if MLB were to reduce the bonus pool significantly, it would limit the level of player the Braves could ultimately draft.

 

[50PoundHead]

I hate when people say we didn’t sign anyone of value just because we signed players for the minimum. Look at both Albies and Acuña. Both were signed for the minimum and would be considered players not worth anything based on the above logic. Imagine losing them now. Just because Maitan was signed for mega bucks doesn’t guarantee he’ll turn into anything at the mlb level.

Albies was a top fifty prospect (higher than that by some scouts), so he's not really a good example compared to the guys signed this past July. I don't recall seeing any of them in any of the pre-J2 write-ups. That doesn't mean that none of them would ever develop, but from first glance, there isn't that much there.

 

[Enscheff]

Albies was a top fifty prospect (higher than that by some scouts), so he's not really a good example compared to the guys signed this past July. I don't recall seeing any of them in any of the pre-J2 write-ups. That doesn't mean that none of them would ever develop, but from first glance, there isn't that much there.

Which begs the question...why bother breaking so many rules to sign them? Are we being naive to think this was about the last J2 class?

 

[jimsnores]

Here's my guess: We lose Maitan, Bae, Waters, any J2 signing of significance, as well as our 2018 first round pick. We're banned from international signings for 2 years and are fined in the neighborhood of $10 million.

This would be an insane punishment but I could see it happening. MLB knows that there is a huge amount of rule breaking in the international market. They instituted new rules to get some parity and we're seeing teams (including the Braves) cheating to get around these rules.

I think the Braves offer MLB the perfect chance to make an example. They'd never make an example out of one of their sacred cows (Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers). Smaller clubs like the Royals or Marlins aren't high enough profile to make a good example and would also be disproportionately hurt by sanctions.

Enter the Braves. They commit some, apparently, pretty flagrant violations. The team is relatively high profile thanks to decades being broadcast nationally and unrivaled success in the 90s. But they aren't one of the sacred cows. Additionally, the Braves have a top farm system which makes them better able to absorb a massive hit without becoming a smoking crater and have sufficient revenues to pay a high fine.

I think the Braves are too tempting a target and MLB wants to send a message to the rest of the league too bad to miss this chance. I think they hit us with everything they've got.

No way. That'd be way over the top.

 

[50PoundHead]

Which begs the question...why bother breaking so many rules to sign them? Are we being naive to think this was about the last J2 class?

I don't think this is about the 2017 J2 class at all. I was answering a question posed by someone else from my comment that if they did void the 2017 international signings, we probably wouldn't be losing too much.

I doubt they do much of anything going back unless it was something really egregious. Guys have been signed and have a year in the system. I think the penalties will go forward into the 2018 draft and international signing period. Probably similar to what the Cards got and some stringent international constraints.

 

[striker42]

No way. That'd be way over the top.

It absolutely would. Punishing us equal to our crime wouldn't send a message to other teams. It would still largely be in teams' best interests to cheat. By hammering us MLB could send a message and change the calculus of other teams.

It would be entirely unfair but makes a degree of sense.

 

[50PoundHead]

The problem with going back and declaring a bunch of guys free agents (from the 2016 international signing period) is how MLB would roll that out? Would the bonuses be charged to the 2018 pool amounts or would there be no pool constraints at all. If it's the latter, the guys who become free agents all end up with big market teams and I can't see that being a good thing for MLB. Like I've said before, this whole situation should be Exhibit A in why an international draft is needed.

The problem I have with striker42's point is that the other owners likely won't go along with it. As he said, it would give the Commissioner's Office a hammer that they would employ at will, which may be used arbitrarily. I don't think the owners would want that.

 

[brian22]

A few guys from the last J2 class, restricted from signing international players for 2 years, and fined a few million bucks.

Yep

 

[jpx7]

Team has to be called the "Cobb County Devil Braves" for two years, all uniforms are dyed washing-machine-color-bleed pink, bells are attached to all team cleats, and Chipper Jones has his twitter privileges revoked.

 

[Heyward]

As long as we keep Maitan, and our 2018 1st, let the chips fall after that.

 

[Carp]

Here's my guess: We lose Maitan, Bae, Waters, any J2 signing of significance, as well as our 2018 first round pick. We're banned from international signings for 2 years and are fined in the neighborhood of $10 million.

This would be an insane punishment but I could see it happening. MLB knows that there is a huge amount of rule breaking in the international market. They instituted new rules to get some parity and we're seeing teams (including the Braves) cheating to get around these rules.

I think the Braves offer MLB the perfect chance to make an example. They'd never make an example out of one of their sacred cows (Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers). Smaller clubs like the Royals or Marlins aren't high enough profile to make a good example and would also be disproportionately hurt by sanctions.

Enter the Braves. They commit some, apparently, pretty flagrant violations. The team is relatively high profile thanks to decades being broadcast nationally and unrivaled success in the 90s. But they aren't one of the sacred cows. Additionally, the Braves have a top farm system which makes them better able to absorb a massive hit without becoming a smoking crater and have sufficient revenues to pay a high fine.

I think the Braves are too tempting a target and MLB wants to send a message to the rest of the league too bad to miss this chance. I think they hit us with everything they've got.

Extremely unlikely.

The MLB hasn't been shy in disciplining their "sacred cows" before. The Sox had to forfeit the signings of two pretty heralded prospects a couple years back and I believe were given some restrictions on Intl spending (not sure about a fine).

I just don't see us losing Maitan. Hell I even think a 1st round pick forfeiture is a long shot to be honest.

 

[Southcack77]

I thought the insinuation was that the Braves were signing non prospects or light prospects from particular international "agents" to improve their situation with the players they really wanted like Maitan and the kid who is coming onto the market in a bit.

Basically, signing guys that probably won't ever amount to anything as bribes.

I don't guess invalidating the J2 class from 2017 would really have much effect if that is really what they did. The only way to punish the conduct would either to be to ban the Braves from signing the prized prospect or invalidating prospects they can show were acquired that way. That's concerning, but maybe hard to establish.

That's why I think the most likely penalty is going to include driving the Braves out of the international conversation for a time. Given they are already in the penalty box, I think it would be extended and perhaps broadened.

Invalidating prospects is also possible but seems problematic.

 

[striker42]

Extremely unlikely.

The MLB hasn't been shy in disciplining their "sacred cows" before. The Sox had to forfeit the signings of two pretty heralded prospects a couple years back and I believe were given some restrictions on Intl spending (not sure about a fine).

I just don't see us losing Maitan. Hell I even think a 1st round pick forfeiture is a long shot to be honest.

It's not that they're afraid of disciplining the sacred cows. They're just not going to make an example out of them. I could see them making an example out of the Braves with a disproportionate punishment.

 

[mqt]

I thought the insinuation was that the Braves were signing non prospects or light prospects from particular international "agents" to improve their situation with the players they really wanted like Maitan and the kid who is coming onto the market in a bit.

Basically, signing guys that probably won't ever amount to anything as bribes.

I don't guess invalidating the J2 class from 2017 would really have much effect if that is really what they did. The only way to punish the conduct would either to be to ban the Braves from signing the prized prospect or invalidating prospects they can show were acquired that way. That's concerning, but maybe hard to establish.

That's why I think the most likely penalty is going to include driving the Braves out of the international conversation for a time. Given they are already in the penalty box, I think it would be extended and perhaps broadened.

Invalidating prospects is also possible but seems problematic.

Yeah, I still wonder if some of this stems more from the kid coming down the pipeline that we apparently already had a deal with for the session after we are done in the penalty box.

 

[Hudson2]

It’s leaning more towards Maitan everyday it seems. If the investigation is over then what are they waiting on?

 

[Coredor]

If they take Maitan from us then we should invite Manfred to Atlanta and declare it souvenir brick night while we invite him on the field. Seriously if he takes Maitan I hope Manfred drops dead.