Harang: A Tale of 3 Metrics

[nsacpi]

His numbers from 2011 to 2014. Choose your metric:

xFIP: 4.21, 4.95, 4.38, 4.00

FIP: 4.17, 4.14, 4.79, 2.28

ERA: 3.64, 3.61, 5.40, 0.69

ERA is obviously more volatile because there is more of an element of luck or randomness involved than with the other two statistics. There is a wider dispersion to the 2014 numbers because the sample is smaller. So far Harang has not allowed a HR in 2014 in spite of a very high fly ball rate, which accounts for the divergence between FIP and xFIP.

It is unlikely that he has made a late-career improvement in his ability to keep balls in the ballpark. Keep in mind we are comparing four years where he pitched in some relatively pitcher friendly parks: San Diego in 2011, LA Dodgers in 2012, and Seattle in 2013.

My conclusion is that Harang remains fundamentally a pitcher whose FIP/ERA is likely to be in the 4.0-4.5 range going forward. Acceptable for a 5th/6th starter, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking he is preferable to Floyd in the rotation.

Oh one more thing (said in my best Lieutenant Columbo imitation), so far he has given up a BABIP of .191 in 2014.

 

[thethe]

I think we all see Harang as the final band aid until the rotation is fully healthy. He also provides that flexibility to monitor the innings of Wood/Teheran.

 

[Gary82]

He's this year's Ben Sheets, a much needed stop gap.

 

[50PoundHead]

I think Harang realizes that he's the bridge guy and as such he's really dialing it up early. He is probably in the mindset of "Why save it for later?" At any rate, he's throwing well right now.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Assuming that Minor and Floyd both recover, rebound and prosper as the ideal situation then imagine what kind of return package Harang could demand at the deadline. All without diminishing our weak prospect pool.

 

[thethe]

I don't think the return on Harang is worth giving up the flexibility he provides to the team.

 

[nsacpi]

It will be interesting to see how he does in the bullpen. He has very little experience as a reliever. But I think he can add a couple mph to the fastball if he only has to pitch a couple innings.

 

[zitothebrave]

I'd certainly ditch Harang if someone gave us a serious return. But that won't happen.

 

[gilesfan]

I'd certainly ditch Harang if someone gave us a serious return. But that won't happen.

Yeah, like a few cases of baseballs, a few hundo bills, or a minor leaguer under 25 years old with a pulse.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

So you dont think a vet pitcher with a $1M contract wouldnt be worth much to a contending team at the deadline. Remember what we gave up for Maholm?

 

[thethe]

Nationals could use some pitching. The ynever seem to get any Braves out.

 

[MadduxFanII]

We've already gotten three more great starts from Harang than we had any right to expect. That signing is a success no matter what happens from here on out, provided we don't do anything insane like start him in Game One of the LDS.

 

[Julio3000]

The idea that we'd be trading Harang is predicated on the assumption that we won't see any more injuries in the rotation (or the 'pen, for that matter).

 

[gilesfan]

So you dont think a vet pitcher with a $1M contract wouldnt be worth much to a contending team at the deadline. Remember what we gave up for Maholm?

Not even close to a good comparison, but the Braves also got Reed Johnson without giving up really anything. (chapman/injured vizcaino)

 

[nsacpi]

We've already gotten three more great starts from Harang than we had any right to expect. That signing is a success no matter what happens from here on out, provided we don't do anything insane like start him in Game One of the LDS.

Yup. The remaining question is how quickly we walk away from the blackjack table.

 

[50PoundHead]

At the least, you make him the 12th guy who helps with Wood's innings limit (or pitch limit if he keeps having 20 pitch innings) and mops up. Varvaro and Schlosser are flat-out scary in the pen.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I dont disagree with most of what most of you are saying except from the standpoint that Harang has never been a reliever and keeping him around to serve mainly as a long reliever when games are pretty much in doubt is a waste of a resource if a trade chip is needed at the deadline given our dearth of quality position prospects.

 

[50PoundHead]

I dont disagree with most of what most of you are saying except from the standpoint that Harang has never been a reliever and keeping him around to serve mainly as a long reliever when games are pretty much in doubt is a waste of a resource if a trade chip is needed at the deadline given our dearth of quality position prospects.

That's true, but if Harang is pitching well enough to be a trading chip, we'll likely keep him.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

That's true, but if Harang is pitching well enough to be a trading chip, we'll likely keep him.

Not at the expense of one of our young guys.

 

[Hawk]

Not at the expense of one of our young guys.

In a perfect world, but doubtful. See: Garcia, Freddy.