Heyman - Braves expected to shop veteran outfielders
- Thread starter steveAKAslick
- Start date
chipchildress
Awaiting a Promotion
I think Acuna would give us an Andruwesque discount.
Simmons did and look how we treated him.
good god, talk about horrible trades. one of a long and getting longer list by this crew.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Bryant is likely to test the FA market, but I don't think that has anything to do with the Cubs toying with his clock. I think it has everything to do with the fact that he could be in line for one of the biggest contracts in history if he goes the FA route. If Acuna is as good as everyone on this board thinks he will be, then he will be facing the same decision and will most likely go the FA route as well. Thats why getting that extra year could be so important in my estimation. Especially since our most likely competitive window doesn't start until 2019 at the very earliest.
You may be right about the actual impact of playing the service time game on Bryant's next contract, but you can be sure that it will be talked about in the media, and Boras will use it as leverage. It will have an impact.... just maybe not in total dollars.
Manny Machado is going to be a FA after next year, and the O's are not going to be able to resign him. They were not able to extend him despite "treating him fairly".
They called him up late in 2012 to get 200 PAs where he posted a .739 OPS and was worth 1.3 fWAR. Then in 2013 he posted ~0.5 fWAR in the 2 weeks to open the season.
They could have forgone that 1.8 fWAR in favor of keeping him down 2 weeks in 2013. In exchange, they would have gained another season of control over Machado's prime that could be worth 6+ fWAR.
I wonder what the O's should have done? I wonder if they think the 1.8 fWAR back in 2012/2013 was worth the 6+ WAR they are losing when Machado is gone in 2019? I wonder if they are happy with that 3x inefficiency? Hmm...maybe because they were competitive during that time frame.
The Braves will be making the same exchange with Acuna, but worse, much worse. They are going to exchange 6 months of 2023 Acuna (5+ WAR) for 2 weeks of 2017 Acuna (0.5 WAR). That is a 10x inefficiency during a non-competitive period...not the best way to run a mid-market franchise.
They called him up late in 2012 to get 200 PAs where he posted a .739 OPS and was worth 1.3 fWAR. Then in 2013 he posted ~0.5 fWAR in the 2 weeks to open the season.
They could have forgone that 1.8 fWAR in favor of keeping him down 2 weeks in 2013. In exchange, they would have gained another season of control over Machado's prime that could be worth 6+ fWAR.
I wonder what the O's should have done? I wonder if they think the 1.8 fWAR back in 2012/2013 was worth the 6+ WAR they are losing when Machado is gone in 2019? I wonder if they are happy with that 3x inefficiency? Hmm...maybe because they were competitive during that time frame.
The Braves will be making the same exchange with Acuna, but worse, much worse. They are going to exchange 6 months of 2023 Acuna (5+ WAR) for 2 weeks of 2017 Acuna (0.5 WAR). That is a 10x inefficiency during a non-competitive period...not the best way to run a mid-market franchise.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
To me the only argument that could possibly make sense for calling Acuna up early is the "good will" that you will buy with the player. But I have never seen that good will turn into anything of value for the team. Just think of it from your own perspective. Would you be willing to leave millions of dollars on the table just because a team decided to forgo an extra year of control to call you up sooner? Especially when we are talking about events that happened 6 years ago? I know that I wouldn't be inclined to do so. So if you are the team, I think its always in your best interest with high caliber players to maximize the amount of guaranteed control you have over a player, because beyond that, nothing is guaranteed. Agents/Players and Front Offices have an adversarial relationship (in the legal sense) and I think all parties involved do or should understand that. So the team should do their best to maximize the value they get out of the player, and the player should do what it can to extract the most money out of the team.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
One thing I see missing from this discussion is the fact that the braves have shown the ability to get the young guys to sign extensions. Freddie, Kimberl, Simba, JT, Ender, Chris Johnson. With the exception of one player the extensions have been good signings and the money has been fair for both sides. There are clubs that better than others at getting players to sign extensions. I think the key to extending players is the deal has to be fair for both sides.
We never know the behind the scenes stuff in contact negotiations and how a team evaluates a player. Maybe there is something the O's know about Machdo or the Cubs know about Bryant that keeps them from giving these guys huge contracts. There were a lot of us braves fans upset that team didn't break the bank for JHey. In hindsight that was not a bad decision.
We never know the behind the scenes stuff in contact negotiations and how a team evaluates a player. Maybe there is something the O's know about Machdo or the Cubs know about Bryant that keeps them from giving these guys huge contracts. There were a lot of us braves fans upset that team didn't break the bank for JHey. In hindsight that was not a bad decision.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
There were stories that the Cubs have been trying to open extension talks with Bryant, but his camp won't even entertain the idea.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
They may, but they will likely have to do it while competing with other teams in the FA market. Bryant reportedly wouldn't even listen on an offer.
https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/6/2/15724104/cubs-kris-bryant-contract-rumors-extension
To be fair... That is the Boras MO. He rarely allows his high profile clients to sign extensions, believing that they can make more money by trying to start a bidding war on the open market. With a few notable exceptions, he is usually right.
More than a little funny that the "don't promote them" crowd continue to ignore that point - "yeah I'm OK with you holding out on me when I deserve more money, I realize those are the rules...of course I won't hold that against you."
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
What?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think it is a factor, but probably a small factor in most cases, in determining a player's attitude toward being extended before hitting free agency. Btw there is value to the club even if a player does not extent early with them. For example, Tampa played the service time game with Wil Myers. They kept him in AAA for over 2 months in 2013 even though he had done very well in AAA in over 400 at bats in 2012. They ended up trading him, and his trade value was influenced by the decisions they made regarding service time management.
I was the one who brought up Bryant, but that may not be the best comp here. He received 6.7M and had Boras as his agent. He was the first one I thought of cause it was so obvious and talked about so much. Machado was mentioned but he was the #3 overall pick and reveived 5.25M.
Does Acuna have the same mindset when he only received 100K? If he kills is in Spring traning and we keep him down for two weeks and the media discusses it at length how we're playing the control game, how does that affect us in the international market going forward?
I'm not against keeping him down for a coupe of weeks, but it's got to be somehow not painfully obvious that it's what we're doing. Social media will run with it and we'll be the a-holes if we do. I think they're going to change that rule soon. It's too well known and too obvious.
Maybe we dump Kemp, and get a guy like J.D. Martinez and state how we thought we could trade Markakis, but found no takers until we find one miraculously 2 1/2 weeks in to the season. Maybe he has a tough spring and we state how he needs to work on some things in AAA, but I don't see him struggling unless injured.
Does Acuna have the same mindset when he only received 100K? If he kills is in Spring traning and we keep him down for two weeks and the media discusses it at length how we're playing the control game, how does that affect us in the international market going forward?
I'm not against keeping him down for a coupe of weeks, but it's got to be somehow not painfully obvious that it's what we're doing. Social media will run with it and we'll be the a-holes if we do. I think they're going to change that rule soon. It's too well known and too obvious.
Maybe we dump Kemp, and get a guy like J.D. Martinez and state how we thought we could trade Markakis, but found no takers until we find one miraculously 2 1/2 weeks in to the season. Maybe he has a tough spring and we state how he needs to work on some things in AAA, but I don't see him struggling unless injured.
Yeah, but Tampa's not really relevant when it comes to those situations, are they??? Unless you're willing to sign a team-friendly deal that gives them at least a couple options on free-agent years, they play the service-time game with EVERY player - they have to.
The Cubs, and apparently even the Braves have a choice...lots of folks around here love to scream that the brass is an inept bunch of idiots, but they understand the implications of calling Dansby, Albies, the arms, and eventually Acuna up every bit as well as every poster here. I'm not any more privy to "The Plan" than anyone here, but it's pretty obvious that they feel that either 1.) they feel they're going to be able to negotiate an extension with the ones that are keepers before these tens of millions of dollars everybody screams about "wasting" are gone or 2.) that someone is telling the truth (surely not) and that payroll is actually going to rise with all the new revenue streams from the new stadium and they can afford to spend that money when the time comes.
I know that's blasphemous around these parts, but people here act like the Braves just swiped their piggy banks and are about to use their last quarter tipping the girl that serves coffee at Starbucks. I know it's shocking to most, but the truth is - it ain't your money, and they plan to do things differently than you do (and apparently don't give a *hit how much people whine about it on message boards). Last time I checked, the people doing all that *itching are in front of their computers during the games, so they're not getting any money from you to begin with.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I don't understand why they are not relevant. They could be poor and dumb. Poverty does not necessitate being smart. It is actually possible to find examples of major league teams that have been both poor and dumb for long stretches of time.
Unfortunately, Tampa only fits the "poor" part. They've now posted attendance numbers of:
30th per home date in 2012 - 19,255 (Braves #16 - 29,878)
30th per home date in 2013 - 18,645 (Braves #13 - 31,465)
30th per home date in 2014 - 17,857 (Braves #18 - 29,065)
30th per home date in 2015 - 15,403 (Braves #22 - 29,699)
30th per home date in 2016 - 15,878 (Braves #22 - 24,949)
30th per home date in 2017 - 15,597 (Braves #14 - 30,750)
Don't call them smart if it bothers you, but there's no way anyone can question whether they play service-time games out of necessity. Feel free to run that all the way out to get more exact numbers, but with an average of 10,000 to 15,000 tickets, plus beer, hot dogs, Cokes, etc, plus merchandise sales, plus parking, 81 times a year over the last 6 years (player control period) the Braves can pretty easily afford to pay for calling up a couple guys early.
Way to miss the point entirely. Well done.
Many have suggested Nick going back to the Orioles who will need a replacement for Seth Smith. I also think JJ going back and pitching there and for McDowell makes sense as that's the reason he signed an extension. That would be 15.5M combined.
Darren O day is 34 and making 18M over the next 2 seasons. There might be a swap there that makes sense. A little cash or fringe prospects to even it out.
Darren O day is 34 and making 18M over the next 2 seasons. There might be a swap there that makes sense. A little cash or fringe prospects to even it out.