Heyman: Braves inquired on Lucroy

[Heyward]

The Braves weakest offensive position right now is 3B.

Not if they call up Peraza, and move Jace to 3B.

While AJ has been better than expected, he's going to regress alot as the season goes on.

The Braves have plenty of infield options, dont have much of anything at catcher.

 

[chop2chip]

I will not put Skyrim down. The texture packs alone!

And if everything goes the Braves way, and Lucroy plays like an MVP again, sure they'd be contenders. But it's baseball, when does everything break your way over the course of a season?

Using fWAR Braves have the 8th best position players, and 13th best pitching. Would the 4-5 fWAR improvement from LuCroy really push us over the top? Assume Tron keeps hitting, we're still trotting out basically the same team as last year offensively (Heyward for Tron, Justin for Lucroy, Freddie for Freddie) but you have to ask who's the Gattis? Who's the 4th? And then you deal with pitching. Assume Miller replaces Julio's value from last year and Wood replaces Santana, and Julio bounces back enough to replace Wood's, who replaces Harang's value?

Last year we weren't good enough to make the playoffs, why would we be this year if we added LuCroy? All the teams who made the playoffs last year are still doing alright. Pirates aren't too hot, but the Cubs are seemingly able to replace them.

I hate that logic of using last year's team as a bench mark. You have to analyze the team as its own entity. If the Braves replace their weakest position with a guy, that some believe, was worth over 8 WAR last year (if you include pitch framing), then the Braves would have essentially replaced all the value that Justin and Jason provided combined.

Throw in the added bonus that all of the young pitchers have the benefit of throwing to the best receiving catcher in baseball and we might see quicker progression from them.

Now I am not saying that Braves as constructed are that strong of a contender. I still think they will fade because they need more position player talent. But if you add an MVP caliber performer to the team then the Braves are as good as any of the other wild card contenders.

 

[thethe]

I hate that logic of using last year's team as a bench mark. You have to analyze the team as its own entity. If the Braves replace their weakest position with a guy, that some believe, was worth over 8 WAR last year (if you include pitch framing), then the Braves would have essentially replaced all the value that Justin and Jason provided combined.

Throw in the added bonus that all of the young pitchers have the benefit of throwing to the best receiving catcher in baseball and we might see quicker progression from them.

Now I am not saying that Braves as constructed are that strong of a contender. I still think they will fade because they need more position player talent. But if you add an MVP caliber performer to the team then the Braves are as good as any of the other wild card contenders.

I think even more would be that the team would score a lot more runs by getting into the opposing teams bullpen sooner. We are already working pitching over real well and if you had a high OBP guy like Lucroy that would just compound the teams strength. That has an impact on whole series which could lead to more wins. Braves have LOADS of pitching to trade and Lucroy would be the perfect target.

Wisler/Dustin/Sims for Lucroy.

See if that wets their whistle.

 

[smootness]

So the thread starts with the fact that the Brewers have specifically told us Lucroy is not available, and every post after discusses whether or not we should add Lucroy. Sounds about right.

 

[Heyward]

I think even more would be that the team would score a lot more runs by getting into the opposing teams bullpen sooner. We are already working pitching over real well and if you had a high OBP guy like Lucroy that would just compound the teams strength. That has an impact on whole series which could lead to more wins. Braves have LOADS of pitching to trade and Lucroy would be the perfect target.

Wisler/Dustin/Sims for Lucroy.

See if that wets their whistle.

Swap out Wisler for Wood, and i'd do that.

 

[Heyward]

So the thread starts with the fact that the Brewers have specifically told us Lucroy is not available, and every post after discusses whether or not we should add Lucroy. Sounds about right.

Lot of teams say that with players then end up trading them.

Not saying we'll trade for him but if the right offer presents itself, who knows.

 

[thethe]

So the thread starts with the fact that the Brewers have specifically told us Lucroy is not available, and every post after discusses whether or not we should add Lucroy. Sounds about right.

Brewers are in absolute free fall. If that organization has half a brain they completely rip it down and trade Gomez/Braun/Lucroy.

What would you expect them to say? "We wanted to hold this press conference to let baseball know that Jonathon Lucroy is available for trade!"

That ruins their leverage in deals. Lucroy is absolutely on the table for the right deal.

 

[rico43]

I assume the inquiry was a value inquiry. If the Braves were looking to get him as the missing piece for a run, they're massive fools.

They certainly don't want the Nationals or Marlins grabbing him at a good price without making sure. Good move by Hart & Co., still on their toes.

 

[Braves1976]

Swap out Wisler for Wood, and i'd do that.

Nope, stupid to trade Wood instead of unproven prospects. But I wouldn't offer that package either, I'd offer a package headlined by Folty instead.

 

[smootness]

Brewers are in absolute free fall. If that organization has half a brain they completely rip it down and trade Gomez/Braun/Lucroy.

What would you expect them to say? "We wanted to hold this press conference to let baseball know that Jonathon Lucroy is available for trade!"

That ruins their leverage in deals. Lucroy is absolutely on the table for the right deal.

This wasn't a statement from the Brewers organization. This was inside information. If he was actually available, I would guess the information would be more along the lines of, 'Braves have inquired about Lucroy. Brewers listening but not quite ready to give up yet.'

If I were the Brewers, I would be selling quite a bit, but I wouldn't be selling Lucroy.

 

[Braves1976]

If I were the Brewers, I would be selling quite a bit, but I wouldn't be selling Lucroy.

I agree, I wouldn't sell him off rebuilding or not unless a team overpays big time.

 

[zitothebrave]

Because the game isn't won using fWAR.

If the Braves upgrade their weakest offensive position that is a tricle down affect where pitchers are worked over and the bullpen is more involved sooner. Folty has the potential to become a dominant pitcher. Anything can happen. Watch the damn team play and don't just be married to frangraphs. This years team at the very worst is as good as last years team without an upgrade or expected improvements from current roster guys.

Last years team was awful.

fWAR is highly correlated to wins. Highly. And I'm talking it's value not generalities.

Upgrading to Lucroy would help, but we still have holes.

Braves wRC+ by position and it's rank in the NL

C - 82 11th
1B - 137 tied 6th
2B - 96 8th
3B - 94 8th
SS - 99 4th
LF - 92 10th
CF - 87 11th
RF - 110 6th

So you see we have 3 positions where we're not bottom half in the league. Making it 4 isn't amazing. And that's assuming Simmons keeps it up, LuCroy is healthy and great, and Markakis doesn't fall off the cliff when his luck ends.

And we don't have the pitching we had last year. People harp on pitching wins. This year our pitching has been Miller and Wood. Julio I expect to rebound. But even if that happens, we're missing the 4th. Even if we can replace our offensive value from last year, we're still missing out on our 4th great starter. We had 4 guys who could be relied on last year.

Minor was our worst pitcher last year with a FIP- of 120 and an xFIP- of 106. Meaning his peripherals weren't really terrible. And he was far and away our worst starter last year. This year both Cahill and Stults have been way worse than that. Folty has been better in the FIP side but much worse on the xFIP side.

Maybe Folty turns it around. He's young, but I wouldn't be optimistic, it's a development year for him.

 

[50PoundHead]

There's using advanced stats to provide support for an argument, and then there's using these stats as the sole determination of everything. Using it as if it's the end-all, be-all, as zito and others frequently do, is really just..not intelligent. Citing fWAR while not watching games and not taking other things into consideration is why people hate on statheads.

The game is still played in three dimensions. Statistics are great in giving an overall depiction of the relative worth of players and some of the deep stats give a pretty comprehensive assessment of where guys sit on the performance spectrum. But you just can't add up WAR or fWAR or whatever else and say, "there's your best team." Execution, timing, and luck still matter.

 

[thethe]

fWAR is highly correlated to wins. Highly. And I'm talking it's value not generalities.

Upgrading to Lucroy would help, but we still have holes.

Braves wRC+ by position and it's rank in the NL

C - 82 11th
1B - 137 tied 6th
2B - 96 8th
3B - 94 8th
SS - 99 4th
LF - 92 10th
CF - 87 11th
RF - 110 6th

So you see we have 3 positions where we're not bottom half in the league. Making it 4 isn't amazing. And that's assuming Simmons keeps it up, LuCroy is healthy and great, and Markakis doesn't fall off the cliff when his luck ends.

And we don't have the pitching we had last year. People harp on pitching wins. This year our pitching has been Miller and Wood. Julio I expect to rebound. But even if that happens, we're missing the 4th. Even if we can replace our offensive value from last year, we're still missing out on our 4th great starter. We had 4 guys who could be relied on last year.

Minor was our worst pitcher last year with a FIP- of 120 and an xFIP- of 106. Meaning his peripherals weren't really terrible. And he was far and away our worst starter last year. This year both Cahill and Stults have been way worse than that. Folty has been better in the FIP side but much worse on the xFIP side.

Maybe Folty turns it around. He's young, but I wouldn't be optimistic, it's a development year for him.

The Braves have pitching in hordes for the 4th and 5th spots. Folty is going to be productive enough this year to justify being the 4th or 5th starter. Williams Perez also has potential.

Again, you are a great fan. We want you back Zito. Watch some damn games and enjoy a fun Braves team. You won't regret it.

 

[chop2chip]

All the stats showed that the Braves would have an epically bad offense this year. All the stats showed that Shelby Miller for Heyward was a moronic trade by the Braves...likewise with Upton

The projections allowed the possibility that the Braves have a league average offense if multiple players performed on the high side of their projections. In forecasting the default rule to projecting is to regress everything to the average.

I don't think the stay community was against the Shelby/Heyward trade or the Upton trade. From a value standpoint it made sense. I think the blowback came from the fandom community.

 

[thethe]

The game is still played in three dimensions. Statistics are great in giving an overall depiction of the relative worth of players and some of the deep stats give a pretty comprehensive assessment of where guys sit on the performance spectrum. But you just can't add up WAR or fWAR or whatever else and say, "there's your best team." Execution, timing, and luck still matter.

Braves sir. Bravo.

 

[zitothebrave]

I hate that logic of using last year's team as a bench mark. You have to analyze the team as its own entity. If the Braves replace their weakest position with a guy, that some believe, was worth over 8 WAR last year (if you include pitch framing), then the Braves would have essentially replaced all the value that Justin and Jason provided combined.

Throw in the added bonus that all of the young pitchers have the benefit of throwing to the best receiving catcher in baseball and we might see quicker progression from them.

Now I am not saying that Braves as constructed are that strong of a contender. I still think they will fade because they need more position player talent. But if you add an MVP caliber performer to the team then the Braves are as good as any of the other wild card contenders.

If you don't use last year's team as a benchmark what is there to consider? Last year we had a team that finished below .500, yes we were unlucky in doing so a bit, but it's a benchmark. Of course league strength and SOS plays a part in determining a comparison, but I don't think the NL is weaker. Dodgers are as strong as ever, Cards are as strong as ever, Nats are stronger than ever, and Giants are super strong. Mets are better than last year, Cubs are way better than last year, infact on th eearly season returns only teams who look much worse than last year so far are the Pirates and Brewers.

Is Lucroy the best receiving catcher in baseball? I have read so many reports on defensive catchers and not a ton put him at the top. Most seem to say Salvador Perez. And you may see that. Did having McCann benefit our pitchers? Yes. But I thought the reason we brought in Lord DOuchebag was for that. Why go out and get someone else?

And I largely disagree with that last point. I think we have an outside shot, kind of similar to the Brewers last year. But we'd ultimately fall short. If we add LuCroy we move to like an 82-85 win team if healthy.

 

[Heyward]

And I largely disagree with that last point. I think we have an outside shot, kind of similar to the Brewers last year. But we'd ultimately fall short. If we add LuCroy we move to like an 82-85 win team if healthy.

And with a couple moves in 2016, they could contend for the division depending what pieces Washington loses.

With Lucroy, a couple outfield bats, and shoring up the bullpen.

 

[Heyward]

Nope, stupid to trade Wood instead of unproven prospects. But I wouldn't offer that package either, I'd offer a package headlined by Folty instead.

So why did we get all this pitching last winter then?

To just keep it for no reason?

It was for moves like this when a player is available, you trade some of it for a player needed.

 

[thethe]

If you don't use last year's team as a benchmark what is there to consider? Last year we had a team that finished below .500, yes we were unlucky in doing so a bit, but it's a benchmark. Of course league strength and SOS plays a part in determining a comparison, but I don't think the NL is weaker. Dodgers are as strong as ever, Cards are as strong as ever, Nats are stronger than ever, and Giants are super strong. Mets are better than last year, Cubs are way better than last year, infact on th eearly season returns only teams who look much worse than last year so far are the Pirates and Brewers.

Is Lucroy the best receiving catcher in baseball? I have read so many reports on defensive catchers and not a ton put him at the top. Most seem to say Salvador Perez. And you may see that. Did having McCann benefit our pitchers? Yes. But I thought the reason we brought in Lord DOuchebag was for that. Why go out and get someone else?

And I largely disagree with that last point. I think we have an outside shot, kind of similar to the Brewers last year. But we'd ultimately fall short. If we add LuCroy we move to like an 82-85 win team if healthy.

And if we are on the high side of that projection and a couple of other things break right hten the Braves could be in the wild card game with Shelby Miller on the mound.