Heyman: Braves inquired on Lucroy

thethe said:
All the stats showed that the Braves would have an epically bad offense this year. All the stats showed that Shelby Miller for Heyward was a moronic trade by the Braves...likewise with Upton.

The principal saber posters on this board all continued to tell us how terrible John Hart was as a GM and that they ruined a great Braves team.

Its a great piece to use in a discussion but to act like there is no need to discuss anything else is as foolish as those that don't use stats at all...maybe more.
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I'm not a saber-head at all and I was telling you how retarded John Hart and co. were. I'm slowly but surely beginning to change my tune though. Believe me, I'd love nothing more than to eat a large bowl of crow at the end of the season.
 
zitothebrave said:
If you don't use last year's team as a benchmark what is there to consider? Last year we had a team that finished below .500, yes we were unlucky in doing so a bit, but it's a benchmark. Of course league strength and SOS plays a part in determining a comparison, but I don't think the NL is weaker. Dodgers are as strong as ever, Cards are as strong as ever, Nats are stronger than ever, and Giants are super strong. Mets are better than last year, Cubs are way better than last year, infact on th eearly season returns only teams who look much worse than last year so far are the Pirates and Brewers.

Is Lucroy the best receiving catcher in baseball? I have read so many reports on defensive catchers and not a ton put him at the top. Most seem to say Salvador Perez. And you may see that. Did having McCann benefit our pitchers? Yes. But I thought the reason we brought in Lord DOuchebag was for that. Why go out and get someone else?

And I largely disagree with that last point. I think we have an outside shot, kind of similar to the Brewers last year. But we'd ultimately fall short. If we add LuCroy we move to like an 82-85 win team if healthy.
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I don't like using previous sample sizes (ie last season) as benchmarks because the games aren't played in a vacuum. It's the same logic that says, "the Braves finished 2 games behind the Nationals therefore if the Braves add a 3 WAR player then they are better than the Nationals." That sort of logic operates under the assumption that deviation from the mean doesn't exist.

You would have to cite those articles about Lucroy. I may have made a claim to grand to call him the best, but he's certainly a top tier receiver and is consistently the best pitch framer in baseball. Regardless, the general point is that he's an MVP level replacement for a below replacement level position. AJ is a fine back up catcher, but his presence shouldn't prevent an upgrade.

We disagree on the last point, but only by application. I also see the Braves as only an 85 win team with Lucroy, but that's a wild card contender in this era. The added benefit is that Lucroy is far from a rental since we would control is rights for two more seasons with the added benefit of negotiation leverage where we could extend his contract at a below market rate by simply tearing up his old bargain bin contract.
 
thethe said:
The Braves have pitching in hordes for the 4th and 5th spots. Folty is going to be productive enough this year to justify being the 4th or 5th starter. Williams Perez also has potential.

Again, you are a great fan. We want you back Zito. Watch some damn games and enjoy a fun Braves team. You won't regret it.
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Having pitching in hordes =/= replacing Harang.

Dont' get me wrong, Braves are set up well long term, they need to add an impact bat this offseason to compliment Freddie, whether that's done in FA where the pickins are slim at not 1B (Jason, Justin, and Fowler) Justin being the safest of the trio as far as history goes (Fowler has been up and down offensively, and his defense has not been good in CF in Houston or Colorado, though I'm kind of willing to give him a pass as they're the 2 hardest places to play CF, and Jason has been up and down offensively)

We can trade for someone, but we'd be depleting our just replenished farm.

I think what makes sense for the Braves if the season shakes out right is Shelby Miller for a stud position player. THink Shelby Miller for guys like Josh Donaldson, Evan Longoria, etc.

Also if I'm the Braves I sniff at ToddFrazier really hard. He's exactly what we need at 3B. He's a FA after next year but we should trade for him and extent him.
 
CyYoung31 said:
I'm not a saber-head at all and I was telling you how retarded John Hart and co. were. I'm slowly but surely beginning to change my tune though. Believe me, I'd love nothing more than to eat a large bowl of crow at the end of the season.
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Fair enough and I appreciate your honesty. Not even I could have thought that all the moves would have worked this well.
 
chop2chip said:
I don't like using previous sample sizes (ie last season) as benchmarks because the games aren't played in a vacuum. It's the same logic that says, "the Braves finished 2 games behind the Nationals therefore if the Braves add a 3 WAR player then they are better than the Nationals." That sort of logic operates under the assumption that deviation from the mean doesn't exist.

You would have to cite those articles about Lucroy. I may have made a claim to grand to call him the best, but he's certainly a top tier receiver and is consistently the best pitch framer in baseball. Regardless, the general point is that he's an MVP level replacement for a below replacement level position. AJ is a fine back up catcher, but his presence shouldn't prevent an upgrade.

We disagree on the last point, but only by application. I also see the Braves as only an 85 win team with Lucroy, but that's a wild card contender in this era. The added benefit is that Lucroy is far from a rental since we would control is rights for two more seasons with the added benefit of negotiation leverage where we could extend his contract at a below market rate by simply tearing up his old bargain bin contract.
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That's not that logic at all. You're playing with a fallacy. I'm discussing our teams results in terms of production relative to replacement vs last year. The closer we are to replacement, the worse we'll be. I used last year as an example because we got shellacked out of the playoff picture, and we moved 6 of our 9 best players. We also made up for it a bit by getting rid of 2 of our worst (though Uggla was gone before the end of the season) but even then, most of our "improvement" from last year is not having epically bad seasons from Simmons and Johnson. With both performing around expectations or above, we of course look a bit better top to bottom.

LuCroy is no slouch. I should have started that by saying that. He's one of the 5 or so best defensive catchers in the game by my estimation. Behind Yadier (though age is getting to him now), Martin, and Perez for sure. Perez being the up and comer who is the best JMO. LuCroy to me is in that next group with McCann, Wieters, Ruiz, and Poser as guys who do a lot of things really well and are massive assets defensively. Of course that's also just dealing with regular catchers, not guys who don't hit enough to start, because including them is silly.

I don't hate the idea of getting LuCroy, epecially since he's sucked to start the season and he could maybe be had for a bit of a bargain, but I view him in a similar right to Miller, he's a high injury risk player who should be moved when the offer is right.
 
Let's face it. The only reason we aren't the worst team in the league at the catcher position is because of AJ's likely inflated offensive numbers.

We need a catcher, a third baseman and a LF. We also need a RH hitter who can actually hit. Lucroy takes care of two of those needs. And he gives a little extra bonus with his framing ability and cheap contract. So, yes he's exactly what this team needs to compete.
 
weso1 said:
Let's face it. The only reason we aren't the worst team in the league at the catcher position is because of AJ's likely inflated offensive numbers.

We need a catcher, a third baseman and a LF. We also need a RH hitter who can actually hit. Lucroy takes care of two of those needs. And he gives a little extra bonus with his framing ability and cheap contract. So, yes he's exactly what this team needs to compete.
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Plus going from AJ to Lucroy would be like going from hell to heaven for our pitchers outside of maybe Miller. Though Miller would be even better with him catching too in the long run.
 
weso1 said:
Let's face it. The only reason we aren't the worst team in the league at the catcher position is because of AJ's likely inflated offensive numbers.

We need a catcher, a third baseman and a LF. We also need a RH hitter who can actually hit. Lucroy takes care of two of those needs. And he gives a little extra bonus with his framing ability and cheap contract. So, yes he's exactly what this team needs to compete.
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We need a catcher, 3B, RF and CF. Mukaki will not be able to stay in RF long term. Maybin should be sold as fast as someone offers us a legit prospect or 2 for him. Don't get me wrong, love his production so far, but I will use the previous 8 years of his career to assume he's not this good and if someone offers us anything good for him, we'd be fools to say no, and we'd be fools to extent him.
 
zitothebrave said:
We need a catcher, 3B, RF and CF. Mukaki will not be able to stay in RF long term. Maybin should be sold as fast as someone offers us a legit prospect or 2 for him. Don't get me wrong, love his production so far, but I will use the previous 8 years of his career to assume he's not this good and if someone offers us anything good for him, we'd be fools to say no, and we'd be fools to extent him.
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Braves were fools to trade Heyward and Upton to if I remember your stances.

Watch the players play this year Zeets.
 
thethe said:
Braves were fools to trade Heyward and Upton to if I remember your stances.

Watch the players play this year Zeets.
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I've watched Cameron Maybin play for 8 years. He looks good while playing but his results are always the same. Below average. Don't get me wrong, he has value. But he's getting older which means his defense is going. Maybe he finally had it all come together offensively, but I would refuse to invest millions in that.
 
zitothebrave said:
We need a catcher, 3B, RF and CF. Mukaki will not be able to stay in RF long term. Maybin should be sold as fast as someone offers us a legit prospect or 2 for him. Don't get me wrong, love his production so far, but I will use the previous 8 years of his career to assume he's not this good and if someone offers us anything good for him, we'd be fools to say no, and we'd be fools to extent him.
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CF is covered by Mallex, imo.
 
zitothebrave said:
I've watched Cameron Maybin play for 8 years. He looks good while playing but his results are always the same. Below average. Don't get me wrong, he has value. But he's getting older which means his defense is going. Maybe he finally had it all come together offensively, but I would refuse to invest millions in that.
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Well they won't have to decide to invest additional funds to him until the 2018 season. Also, when he is healthy he typically produces at an above average level for a CF. The hitters are responding to Seitzers approach. Please Zito...we want you back as a fan. Watch the games.
 
thethe said:
Braves were fools to trade Heyward and Upton to if I remember your stances.

Watch the players play this year Zeets.
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I agree with Zeets. Absolutely trade Maybin if someone is willing to take a chance on him.
 
weso1 said:
I agree with Zeets. Absolutely trade Maybin if someone is willing to take a chance on him.
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Lets not forget that this guy was a top 10 prospect. He has not been healthy. At any point it can click for a guy like that. I'm waiting it out to see how he performs and if this continues all year then I'm keeping him.
 
weso1 said:
I agree with Zeets. Absolutely trade Maybin if someone is willing to take a chance on him.
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I think they will regardless how much we here like him. I like him but Zeets is right about his track record and the Braves could use that 8 million or so to fill other needs too.
 
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