Highest ceilings Prospects

P

Preacher

Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Lets face it, when we talk about prospects we all imagine these kids hitting their ceilings, no matter how unrealistic it is sometimes. With that said, if every prospect maxes out..... which 3 pitchers/hitters have the most upside in our system? Or 4 or 5....

My List

Pitchers

1. Touki

Ridiculous fastball/curveball combo, highly athletic.

2. Allard

Another devastating fb/cb combo from the left side.

3. Newcombe

Overpowering lefty.

HM

Sanchez, Fried, Sims

Hitters

1. Austin Riley

Potential plus power with a great throwing arm at 3B

2. Ronald Acuna

Probably jumping the gun a bit, but industry people seem very high on him, potential 5-tool player.

3. Swanson

Because the floor is so high with Swanson, I think people tend to sell the ceiling short.... potential plus defender at a premium position who can hit, get on base, have enough power to be dangerous and steal 20ish bases? Yes please.

HM

Wilson, Ozzy, Yepez, Braxton
 
Preacher said:
Lets face it, when we talk about prospects we all imagine these kids hitting their ceilings, no matter how unrealistic it is sometimes. With that said, if every prospect maxes out..... which 3 pitchers/hitters have the most upside in our system? Or 4 or 5....

My List
Pitchers
1. Touki
Ridiculous fastball/curveball combo, highly athletic.
2. Allard
Another devastating fb/cb combo from the left side.
3. Newcombe
Overpowering lefty.

HM
Sanchez, Fried, Sims

Hitters
1. Austin Riley
Potential plus power with a great throwing arm at 3B
2. Ronald Acuna
Probably jumping the gun a bit, but industry people seem very high on him, potential 5-tool player.
3. Swanson
Because the floor is so high with Swanson, I think people tend to sell the ceiling short.... potential plus defender at a premium position who can hit, get on base, have enough power to be dangerous and steal 20ish bases? Yes please.

HM
Wilson, Ozzy, Yepez, Braxton
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Folty is technically not a prospect.. but he has one of the highest ceilings in our system.
 
I truthfully feel Fried is our highest ceiling pitching prospect, followed by Newcomb and Allard. But it's really tough to say. I think we have a lot of high-ceiling arms.

Hitters, I go: Riley, Swanson, Albies.
 
yeezus said:
I truthfully feel Fried is our highest ceiling pitching prospect, followed by Newcomb and Allard. But it's really tough to say. I think we have a lot of high-ceiling arms.

Hitters, I go: Riley, Swanson, Albies.
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hitting prospects are hard.. Ozzie is really only going to have a high ceiling if he has a high OBP.. He could have gap power.. But most high 'ceiling' prospects will have true power.. like Riley/Acuna.. Honestly, I think Ozzie will be a great hitter, just not sure how you define him in regard to 'ceiling' as a hitter?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
hitting prospects are hard.. Ozzie is really only going to have a high ceiling if he has a high OBP.. He could have gap power.. But most high 'ceiling' prospects will have true power.. like Riley/Acuna.. Honestly, I think Ozzie will be a great hitter, just not sure how you define him in regard to 'ceiling' as a hitter?
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I guess I'm thinking he could be like Altuve with less power. really high average, high OBP, tons of steals, lots of doubles and triples.
 
Arms:

1.) Fried

2.) Newcomb

3.) Allard

4.) Toussaint

5.) Blair

(Blair and Toussaint are a literal toss-up for me.)

Bats:

1.) Maitan

2.) Riley

3.) Swanson

4.) Juan Yepez

5.) Davidson

(Acuna, Albies, and Mallex lurking.)

Yes it's putting the cart before the horse to include Maitan, but I'm convinced we'll sign him - he'll be the best hitting prospect we've had since Chipper was drafted. Also really doesn't matter who we take at #3 in June - no one in this draft would crack the Top 5 on either of those lists IMO.
 
clvclv said:
Yes it's putting the cart before the horse to include Maitan, but I'm convinced we'll sign him - he'll be the best hitting prospect we've had since Chipper was drafted.
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No no no... the Braves had arguably the best prospect in the history of baseball in Andruw Jones and another, Heyward, who has made a number of top 10 prospects lists of all time.

Ironically, those two players are among the most divisive players among Braves fans in my lifetime. It seems like a subtle foreshadow to the Maitan era if he isn't Miggy incarnate.
 
Touki, Allard, Newcomb, and Fried are four that you can't really go wrong with any ranking based on ceiling. Honestly, if you ranked those four in any order I wouldn't disagree. If I had to, I'd probably go Allard, Touki, Newcomb, then Fried.

As for hitters, Davidson would be my highest ceiling guy. With his batting eye and tools he has the raw ability to become an elite hitter. After that I'd go with Riley. Then probably Swanson over Albies. I like Swanson's plate approach better.
 
chop2chip said:
No no no... the Braves had arguably the best prospect in the history of baseball in Andruw Jones and another, Heyward, who has made a number of top 10 prospects lists of all time.

Ironically, those two players are among the most divisive players among Braves fans in my lifetime. It seems like a subtle foreshadow to the Maitan era if he isn't Miggy incarnate.
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Really just my personal feeling - I always thought more highly of Chipper than those two (and Andruw over Heyward), but that's just me. I've also typically been bigger on Fried and Blair (and Jenkins for that matter) than most. As striker mentions I think you'd be hard pressed to argue with others' opinions that would have one or two of the others higher than I do. Mine are strictly based on what I think their absolute ceilings are - the chances that any of them ever reach them are always questionable.
 
clvclv said:
Arms:

1.) Fried
2.) Newcomb
3.) Allard
4.) Toussaint
5.) Blair

(Blair and Toussaint are a literal toss-up for me.)

Bats:

1.) Maitan
2.) Riley
3.) Swanson
4.) Juan Yepez
5.) Davidson

(Acuna, Albies, and Mallex lurking.)

Yes it's putting the cart before the horse to include Maitan, but I'm convinced we'll sign him - he'll be the best hitting prospect we've had since Chipper was drafted. Also really doesn't matter who we take at #3 in June - no one in this draft would crack the Top 5 on either of those lists IMO.
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I think Blair is clearly a notch below your top 4.

If the Braves get a guy like Kyle Lewis at 3 he will easily slot in right below Swanson.
 
Enscheff said:
I think Blair is clearly a notch below your top 4.

If the Braves get a guy like Kyle Lewis at 3 he will easily slot in right below Swanson.
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Kinda tough for me to say "clearly" while Newcomb and Toussaint are still walking more than 5 batters per 9 innings. I personally include control in my rankings (as opposed to just pure stuff like most), which is why I'm typically more conservative when it comes to the big arms. I think there's far more chance that Blair reaches a solid #2 than any of Folty, Newcomb, or Toussaint turns into a true "Ace".

Again, just my personal take, but I'd far rather have a really good #2 than someone who becomes a dominant Closer if everything doesn't go really well. Those guys are still plenty young enough to turn into much more, but I'm far more comfortable predicting brighter futures for Fried and Allard given the current level of control and command they've all displayed.

As for Kyle Lewis, I'd like to see him do what he's doing against slightly better competition than Mercer faces. Far from saying he "can't" - I'd just like to see it first.
 
Pitchers: Allard, Newcomb, Sims, Fried in that order

Hitters: Maitan, Swanson, #3 pick, Riley in that order
 
The great thing about this is there are several candidates to choose from.... ask this question 18 months ago.... you would have a much harder time finding a bunch of guys with huge upsides.
 
clvclv said:
Kinda tough for me to say "clearly" while Newcomb and Toussaint are still walking more than 5 batters per 9 innings. I personally include control in my rankings (as opposed to just pure stuff like most), which is why I'm typically more conservative when it comes to the big arms. I think there's far more chance that Blair reaches a solid #2 than any of Folty, Newcomb, or Toussaint turns into a true "Ace".

Again, just my personal take, but I'd far rather have a really good #2 than someone who becomes a dominant Closer if everything doesn't go really well. Those guys are still plenty young enough to turn into much more, but I'm far more comfortable predicting brighter futures for Fried and Allard given the current level of control and command they've all displayed.

As for Kyle Lewis, I'd like to see him do what he's doing against slightly better competition than Mercer faces. Far from saying he "can't" - I'd just like to see it first.
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But we're talking about ceiling. The reason people put stuff ahead of control when discussing ceiling is because it is far easier for a pitcher to improve control than it is for them to suddenly improve their stuff. So Blair's ceiling is probably a good 2, while Allard, Fried, Toussaint, and Newcomb, and possibly even Sims, all have potential #1 stuff. So their ceiling is higher. When discussing pure ceiling, it does no good to discuss risk.

And this is all in good fun, so it doesn't really matter, but while I agree with you on Fried, I honestly don't see how anyone has Toussaint lower than #1 when discussing pure ceiling. Sure, he also has the most risk, but if he hits, there absolutely will not be a better pitcher in our system. He has Giolito-type stuff, if not even better.

And on Kyle Lewis, or even Corey Ray, I would absolutely put their ceiling above Yepez and Davidson, no question. I would even put Lewis ahead of Swanson and Riley, and I love the potential of both of those guys. Lewis has slightly more risk than most college players because of competition (not a huge deal to me) and the short amount of time he's been playing baseball, but that also gives him a higher ceiling as well. His tools are off the charts.
 
smootness said:
But we're talking about ceiling. The reason people put stuff ahead of control when discussing ceiling is because it is far easier for a pitcher to improve control than it is for them to suddenly improve their stuff. So Blair's ceiling is probably a good 2, while Allard, Fried, Toussaint, and Newcomb, and possibly even Sims, all have potential #1 stuff. So their ceiling is higher. When discussing pure ceiling, it does no good to discuss risk.

And this is all in good fun, so it doesn't really matter, but while I agree with you on Fried, I honestly don't see how anyone has Toussaint lower than #1 when discussing pure ceiling. Sure, he also has the most risk, but if he hits, there absolutely will not be a better pitcher in our system. He has Giolito-type stuff, if not even better.

And on Kyle Lewis, or even Corey Ray, I would absolutely put their ceiling above Yepez and Davidson, no question. I would even put Lewis ahead of Swanson and Riley, and I love the potential of both of those guys. Lewis has slightly more risk than most college players because of competition (not a huge deal to me) and the short amount of time he's been playing baseball, but that also gives him a higher ceiling as well. His tools are off the charts.
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The thing with Ceiling is that one can raise their ceiling by control. Look at Glavine and even Maddux for example. Maddux had good stuff but his control was what made him the best... Glavine is the same. He had a devastating change up.. but he knew how to paint the outside corner and just will the hitter to swinging at his pitch. Neither guy had 'stuff' that just blew you away.. they just had superb control and smarts. So a guy like Blair/Wisler/Gant who just know how to pitch and get guys out could just as easily become 'elite' as a guy with great 'stuff'...

I know in the context of the OP.. we are basing this on 'stuff'.. because imagine a guy with Maddux control and Touki stuff... WOW!!!
 
Right now, I'd say Newcomb for the pitchers and Riley for the hitters. Difficult to assess for different reasons. We have a lot of pitchers, some with question marks, with top-of-the-rotation potential. I'm not seeing a hitter in the system right now who screams "Can't miss."
 
smootness said:
But we're talking about ceiling. The reason people put stuff ahead of control when discussing ceiling is because it is far easier for a pitcher to improve control than it is for them to suddenly improve their stuff. So Blair's ceiling is probably a good 2, while Allard, Fried, Toussaint, and Newcomb, and possibly even Sims, all have potential #1 stuff. So their ceiling is higher. When discussing pure ceiling, it does no good to discuss risk.

And this is all in good fun, so it doesn't really matter, but while I agree with you on Fried, I honestly don't see how anyone has Toussaint lower than #1 when discussing pure ceiling. Sure, he also has the most risk, but if he hits, there absolutely will not be a better pitcher in our system. He has Giolito-type stuff, if not even better.

And on Kyle Lewis, or even Corey Ray, I would absolutely put their ceiling above Yepez and Davidson, no question. I would even put Lewis ahead of Swanson and Riley, and I love the potential of both of those guys. Lewis has slightly more risk than most college players because of competition (not a huge deal to me) and the short amount of time he's been playing baseball, but that also gives him a higher ceiling as well. His tools are off the charts.
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That's valid, and is why many of the pundits have their lists differently. Just a quirk in the way I personally rank players and their ceilings. If there's a 50% or more chance a Pitcher can't harness his stuff enough to be more than a reliever, I ding him. The reason? If you went back in time and ranked arms based on stuff alone, Mark Wohlers would've been more highly thought of than Mariano Rivera. When I think of "ceiling", I personally consider a guy who has a really good chance to be a good #2 to have a higher ceiling than a guy who has to have several things improve just to turn into a starter and needs everything to improve to be better than that #2.

Like you mention - it's all in fun, and I can't imagine we'd ever come up with anything close to resembling a "consensus" even just among Chop County compadres - especially when you look at how big the pile of "WOW, if only..." arms we've stockpiled has become. I've just kinda adjusted my personal grading system a bit like BA has - tweaking it a bit to include the probability a prospect might reach his absolute physical ceiling since so few ever really even come close. I realize my list differs from many since I tend to focus as much on that extra criteria, just kinda tough to change that when tossing lists out there. Nasty only means so much to me personally, but there are plenty of guys we've got that certainly fit that "WOW, if only..." profile, no doubt.
 
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