How do the Braves find bats for 2017 and beyond?
- Thread starter Horsehide Harry
- Start date
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Yes, a guy like Price and/or Samardzija would be more expensive. But not necessarily more injury prone. An argument can be made that they have shown over time that they are durable and NOT injury prone. Does that mean they will never be injured? Of course not. But they have a track record of health.
They also have a track record of good pitching, especially Price. Now, Samardzija (who I include as a representative of several similar pitchers like Zimmerman, etc.) you are paying less in terms of money and years because their historical production has been less, but you also are hoping for upside. Price is what he is, a proven ACE.
Miller and Teheran both have a short track record of both excellence and mediocrity and their limited historical record really says nothing at this point about long term health (except that their deliveries appear to be more conducive to healthy that say a delivery like Wood or Hanson). Could Miller become the next Greinke? Maybe. Almost certainly not since the odds of that type talent revealing itself are so poor, but maybe. Could he become the next Hanson? Again, maybe. I don't think so because his delivery and stuff are both better, but maybe.
The same can be said for Teheran. The difference for Teheran is that he is on such a team friendly contract whereas Miller will get very expensive very fast through arbitration and eventual FA should he stay on his current course.
As for the viability of trading pitching prospects, especially prospects who are second tier because you would expect the Braves to have designs on keeping the first tier for internal use, I guess we will see. I suspect that it will be "welcome to 20 years ago." I think the cycle has changed where the relative nature of pitching as compared to the availability of quality hitting has changed.
To win the game, a team must outscore the opponent. Now, good pitching and defense LIMIT the number of runs needed but don't actually score any runs on their own. You have to hit your way around the bases. The old Snyder philosophy of focusing on pitching and not worrying about hitting was perfect for an era where bats were a dime a dozen and pitching was scarce. But, now the cycle has changed.
Bottom line is that ALL phases should be accounted for when planning for a successful team. The fact that the Braves only have one WS win to show for their dominant run of the 90's and early 2000's is at least partly the result of a philosophy too one-sided concerned with pitching as opposed to hitting.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Certainly. However, the Price trade was probably a short term go for it now swing for the fences. The other two were targets of opportunity based upon having pieces to trade and payroll space.
But in Tulo at least they are taking on a contract that very likely will have some bad years at the end (and maybe before that).
The Donaldson trade was about as good as has been done in several years.
I could see them taking that route and signing the pitching equivalent of Markakis, someone reliable but nothing special.
dak
Well-known member
That's in line with what Hart said previously about the big-name free agent hitters, so would make sense. I'm glad to hear it.
Cormier's Spring
Member
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...ing-plan-throwback-past?ex_cid=espnapi_public
Here's the quote from Coppy: "We see Max Scherzer getting $210 million on the free-agent market," Coppolella said. "We believe free-agent pitching is one of the most inefficient uses of money, and we know how volatile pitching is in every sense of the word, so our goal was to load up on a quantity of quality and try to build our organization for long-lasting success. Nobody knows whether all of these pitchers will have major league success, or even if they will stay healthy, but we do know that they offered us the most upside of any other potential acquisitions."
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
It was a big Mukaki, er, Kabuki show.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
No, he was just the right player at the wrong time. Maybe Price can be the right player at the wrong time this off-season.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Thanks for the link and quote. I found this quote from the article also interesting and similar to the concern I have now.
"I really do like the strategy, and I think they're doing the right thing," said a National League executive. But he wonders if the pitchers lined up behind Miller could turn out to be a "bunch of No. 4 starters or bullpen guys."
Yeah, there seems to be quite a bit of talking out of both sides of your mouth going on with our FO this past year. If we aren't going to spend on FA hitting, and we aren't going to spend on FA pitching, then what the heck are we going to spend all this cash on?
They are dumping every player with a contract beyond 2016 outside of Freddie and Simba it seems, and the 2017 FA market kinda sucks. If we don't go after anyone this offseason and wind up trading Julio then I'll be kinda baffled as to what the hell our plan is at all for the short term.
Because if we move Julio this offseason and don't replace him with a serious FA pitcher then next season is going to be ugly too. Which would be an awkward way to move into the new stadium, trading away almost all of the popular players and having a big time losing team.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Well there is one angle that would resolve all of these seeming inconsistencies. And this would involve trading for guys under contract. We did this with the Olivia trade. And again with the Bourn/Swisher trade. It is not a bad approach. But I also think there will be some bargains in this off-season's FA market for starting pitching. For teams willing to be patient.
That pretty much sums up my feelings on things. I feel confident at least one of the guys we have in the upper levels and the majors will turn into a decent #3 starter, and I'm confident we'll be able to get a good #4 and #5 starter out of the rest. But I don't see anyone in the upper levels that is going to be a #1/#2 starter type to pair with Miller. Sims and Toussaint have the talent, but not the control, and the rest don't have elite level talent (outside of maybe Fried, but he's realistically about as far away as Allard given the injury).
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'm a bit higher than most on Wisler. I do think, however, that we should dip into this off-season's FA market for a starting pitcher.
Yep, I think we could get a reasonable deal on someone like Kazmir if we swooped in at the right time.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
It is when you have to overpay in such trades like we did for Olivera. Plus the Bourn-Swisher for CJ deal was mainly about moving money around for 2017. As I started to say in response to auyushu's post: They learned the hard way about getting a bat by going almost totally after pitching in trades. Then overreacted in desperation with the Olivera trade. Now I guess they'll do it again in another direction and later overreact paying more for that mistake too. I hope I am wrong about that though.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Yea, I am interested in Kazmir myself as he shouldn't cost as much as someone like Price but would be a solid addition if the years and price works.
Yeah, a 4 year deal to Kazmir could bridge the gap nicely till Allard is ready in late 2018 or in 2019. And if we extend Miller Kazmir's contract would be expiring right after Miller's kicks in, freeing up money for other needs.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Exactly. We should at the very least add someone like Kazmir IMO. If not I could certainly see us ending up overpaying again later to fill a hole in the rotation.