Hypothetically speaking...

[JohnAdcox]

COULD the Braves compete in 2017? I mean, without, say, cataclysmic accidents in New York and Washington?

Let's assume, for the moment, that it's true that the Braves MUST spend in 2017, both to put some shine on the new ballpark in the southern Chattanooga suburbs and to maintain the agreement with MLB that allowed the Liberty purchase.

With that in mind, they blow open the bank vault doors and sign, say, Ramos and Cespedes, along with a bullpen piece or two.

That means everything, everything else comes from within.

So you'd plug two of the three glaring holes, leaving one. That leaves you with a lineup of (this is not an exact order, mind):

RF: Mallex

CF: Ender

1B: Freeman

LF: Cespedes

C: Ramos

3B: Adonis

2B: Albies

SS: Swanson

P

The pitching doesn't change, unless we add a bullpen piece.

Short and second improve, or should soon.

The bench improves, although Frenchy and Flowers aside, it lacks power.

Obviously, L and C improve dramatically, despite obvious flaws.

So. Is that enough? I'm not suggesting it's realistic, but I sincerely imagine there is pressure from Liberty to spend enough to put some butts in seats. I'm mostly thinking that the spend, despite the way it might cripple us long term, is something that might stop the brand value bleeding. That doesn't show on a spreadsheet, but C-level execs know it matters.

Thoughts?

 

[bravos4evr]

If they can ditch Markakis and Garcia, add Cespedes, Ramos/Castro and Prado for 3b, I think they could be a WC contender even without pen help. Simmons should be back and able to close. (and if we do add pen arms, they will be low cost variety 7th inning or LOOGY variety)

Yeah, I think that team could give 85 wins a run for the money and that usually means that come Sept you are in the hunt for the 2nd WC spot.

 

[ATLBraves247]

If they can ditch Markakis and Garcia, add Cespedes, Ramos/Castro and Prado for 3b, I think they could be a WC contender even without pen help. Simmons should be back and able to close. (and if we do add pen arms, they will be low cost variety 7th inning or LOOGY variety)

Yeah, I think that team could give 85 wins a run for the money and that usually means that come Sept you are in the hunt for the 2nd WC spot.

Where's Vizcaino going? You think Simmons closes over him?

 

[Preacher]

No. We can compete with mediocrity, but we aren't competing for anything meaningful in 2017.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I don't think we'll give up a high second round pick. But we will see. I'm hoping that maybe part of the deal with Desmond and Cespedes is that they would not get a QO the next year.

I think we could be good like this:

CF: mallex-no way he has RF arm
RF-Inciarte
LF-Cespedes or Desmond

3B-Prado or maybe a salary dump like Plouffe in a bounce back. Maybe Freese. Don't think we touch Reyes with HO looming.
SS-Swanson
2B-Albies or maybe Prado here
1B-FF

C-one of the many 30 yo options

Pitchers mature. Maybe a Jenkins comes in and upgrades the journeyman/Perez spot

Simmons and Winkler and Minter come back from injury for pen.

I think team competes....but I'm thinking 500 maybe, not playoffs.

What I think will happen is that they'll look for a major trade.
If they get the major trade: Move forward with a plan to compete. Probably look to buy some guys. Maybe get an overpriced guy who is still an upgrade for cheap...like Brandon Phillips

If we cannot swing the trade: Then I think we only look to get guys who are no going to cost a draft pick. Be conservative on spend. Look for some reclamation projects. And sell next year on the new stadium plus Swanson, Albies, etc.

 

[rico43]

Got to reject this theory for one big reason. You say the pitching doesn't change. There will be a massive shakeup of the pitching staff. Norris gives way, Jenkins has an essential role, Simmons does remain a question mark, but wwe have three major league capable pitchers who will be back from TJ surgery by spring of 2017.

Agree that it would be a tough call to give up high 2nd pick for a free agent signing.

 

[bravos4evr]

Where's Vizcaino going? You think Simmons closes over him?

I think he gets moved at the deadline this year

 

[clvclv]

The Braves will never play at the top end of the Free-Agent market - anyone who thinks differently is an absolute idiot.

That's what I've been told anyway.

 

[Enscheff]

The Braves will never play at the top end of the Free-Agent market - anyone who thinks differently is an absolute idiot.

That's what I've been told anyway.

Because that's the truth.

However, "playing at the top of the FA market" means doling out $150M-$200M+ FA contracts. While the Braves will certainly not do that (mostly because there aren't any "elite" players hitting the market this year), they can upgrade 3B, LF and C without handing out anything remotely close to that type of contract.

Castro is an excellent defensive catcher and would make a great platoon partner with Flowers. I would expect him to sign for something like 4/40.

Desmond or Ces could anchor LF. Desmond could take over 3B. The new CBA will almost certainly get rid of the loss of a draft pick for signing FAs, so the Braves won't have to worry about that. MLBTR predicts Ces is the only guy that might top $100M, which the Braves can afford if it's not way above $100M. They say Desmond is likely to command a 3 year deal, which the Braves can certainly afford.

Guys like Prado and Freese are certainly affordable and would be solid additions.

So if you're asking me if this team:

C - Castro/Flowers
1B - Freeman
2B - Albies
SS - Swanson
3B - Desmond/Prado/Freese
LF - Ces/Desmond
CF - Mallex/Inciarte
RF - Inciarte/Markakis

could make a WC run, I say yes. That is an above average lineup, and the Braves can afford to make it happen.

The difference between them being a .500 team and a WC team is how well the young pitching progresses in 2017.

 

[nsacpi]

We can upgrade without going after anyone with a QO. We will be a .500 team give or take a few wins.

 

[Carp]

Cespedes wouldn't cost a 2nd round pick since his contract is an opt out. So for that reason (and because we HAVE to spend money) I think he will be high on our list this offseason. I would also like to bring in Justin Turner

 

[nsacpi]

Cespedes wouldn't cost a 2nd round pick since his contract is an opt out. So for that reason (and because we HAVE to spend money) I think he will be high on our list this offseason. I would also like to bring in Justin Turner

Opt outs can be offered a QO. See Zach Greinke who cost the Diamondbacks their #1 pick.

I think our shopping list will be as follows:

Catcher-from among Wieters/Castro/Ramos, maybe a trade if say the Yankees make one of McCann/Sanchez available

3rd-Prado/Turner/Freese. I'm assuming those three do not get a QO but Ian Desmond does.

Established reliever who can pitch the 7th or 8th.

 

[Carp]

But, if we plan on competing, then there's basically no way we can trade JT. Our rotation in 2017 as of now if JT, Wisler, and ??? No one is really stepping up like we need. So I think ideally, we would need to bring in a veteran innings eater like Gio Gonzalez or Jeremy Hellickson.

 

[clvclv]

Because that's the truth.

However, "playing at the top of the FA market" means doling out $150M-$200M+ FA contracts. While the Braves will certainly not do that (mostly because there aren't any "elite" players hitting the market this year), they can upgrade 3B, LF and C without handing out anything remotely close to that type of contract.

Castro is an excellent defensive catcher and would make a great platoon partner with Flowers. I would expect him to sign for something like 4/40.

Desmond or Ces could anchor LF. Desmond could take over 3B. The new CBA will almost certainly get rid of the loss of a draft pick for signing FAs, so the Braves won't have to worry about that. MLBTR predicts Ces is the only guy that might top $100M, which the Braves can afford if it's not way above $100M. They say Desmond is likely to command a 3 year deal, which the Braves can certainly afford.

Guys like Prado and Freese are certainly affordable and would be solid additions.

So if you're asking me if this team:

C - Castro/Flowers
1B - Freeman
2B - Albies
SS - Swanson
3B - Desmond/Prado/Freese
LF - Ces/Desmond
CF - Mallex/Inciarte
RF - Inciarte/Markakis

could make a WC run, I say yes. That is an above average lineup, and the Braves can afford to make it happen.

The difference between them being a .500 team and a WC team is how well the young pitching progresses in 2017.

This is my problem with you guys that say they won't play. You hedge to make the argument fit whichever way you want it to go.

The two top free-agent bats that will be available this year are going to be Cespedes and Desmond. Both are going to get $20+ million per each. That IS the top of the market this winter, and there's absolutely no reason the Braves shouldn't be "in" on both of them since they're perfect fits.

I realize the total contract dollars is your "out", but you're just playing the semantics game. The two top bats would likely cost the Braves $275 million - 5/$100 million for Desmond and 5/$175 for Cespedes, and they can easily afford that. That's still $50 million less than Stanton's deal with Miami.

The biggest contract the organization has ever handed out before Freeman's deal was less than $100 million, sure. The problem is that you're not allowing for the change in economics league-wide. Freeman's deal looks like a bargain, and it's the biggest contract in team history.

I realize it's tough to grasp, but a $175 million outlay for Cespedes these days isn't much different than Chipper's largest deal when adjusted. I also understand that everyone loves to hate on the brass for floating the idea that the club could be competitive as early as next season. They didn't come up with that idea without coming to the realization that they were going to spend substantial money to fill a hole or two to make that happen. They were smart enough to understand ALL the "answers" weren't coming from within - no matter how many prospects and picks they were going to be able to acquire.

 

[Carp]

Opt outs can be offered a QO. See Zach Greinke who cost the Diamondbacks their #1 pick.

I think our shopping list will be as follows:

Catcher-from among Wieters/Castro/Ramos, maybe a trade if say the Yankees make one of McCann/Sanchez available

3rd-Prado/Turner/Freese. I'm assuming those three do not get a QO but Ian Desmond does.

Established reliever who can pitch the 7th or 8th.

I didn't realize that.

 

[nsacpi]

But, if we plan on competing, then there's basically no way we can trade JT. Our rotation in 2017 as of now if JT, Wisler, and ??? No one is really stepping up like we need. So I think ideally, we would need to bring in a veteran innings eater like Gio Gonzalez or Jeremy Hellickson.

I think we can find 3 serviceable starters out of Gant, Perez, Folty and Blair coming out of spring training next year. As the season goes forward, Newcomb and Sims could become options.

 

[Enscheff]

This is my problem with you guys that say they won't play. You hedge to make the argument fit whichever way you want it to go.

The two top free-agent bats that will be available this year are going to be Cespedes and Desmond. Both are going to get $20+ million per each. That IS the top of the market this winter, and there's absolutely no reason the Braves shouldn't be "in" on both of them since they're perfect fits.

I realize the total contract dollars is your "out", but you're just playing the semantics game. The two top bats would likely cost the Braves $275 million - 5/$100 million for Desmond and 5/$175 for Cespedes, and they can easily afford that. That's still $50 million less than Stanton's deal with Miami.

The biggest contract the organization has ever handed out before Freeman's deal was less than $100 million, sure. The problem is that you're not allowing for the change in economics league-wide. Freeman's deal looks like a bargain, and it's the biggest contract in team history.

I realize it's tough to grasp, but a $175 million outlay for Cespedes these days isn't much different than Chipper's largest deal when adjusted. I also understand that everyone loves to hate on the brass for floating the idea that the club could be competitive as early as next season. They didn't come up with that idea without coming to the realization that they were going to spend substantial money to fill a hole or two to make that happen. They were smart enough to understand ALL the "answers" weren't coming from within - no matter how many prospects and picks they were going to be able to acquire.

I have NEVER hedged anything. I have ALWAYS stated the Braves will not hand out $150M+ FA contracts, and certainly not $200M contracts. So yes, in the worst FA year in recent history the Braves may shop "at the top of the FA market" because the FA market is complete garbage this year.

If Ces wants something like 5/110-6/120 the Braves can afford it, and I think they should seriously consider it. He will sign the largest contract this offseason, and it will be about half of what the top FA contract has typically been over the last half decade. So go ahead, call that shopping at the top of the market if it makes you feel validated.

You know damn well paying Ces $120m is completely different than paying Stras or Price $200m, so stop acting like they are equivalent signings.

 

[Enscheff]

We can upgrade without going after anyone with a QO. We will be a .500 team give or take a few wins.

There is a pretty good chance teams won't lose a pick for signing a QO under the new CBA. Too many middle tier FAs have had their markets ranked by the QO, so I bet the MLBPA tries to get rid of it.

 

[nsacpi]

There is a pretty good chance teams won't lose a pick for signing a QO under the new CBA. Too many middle tier FAs have had their markets ranked by the QO, so I bet the MLBPA tries to get rid of it.

We'll see. Manfred defended the current QO system pretty stoutly in a recent interview.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

We can upgrade without going after anyone with a QO. We will be a .500 team give or take a few wins.

Short of almost an entire roster overhaul this team isn't 20 games better next season.