Identifying BP Conversion Candidates

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
It is common knowledge SPs see their stuff tick up when they are allowed to pitch in short bursts out of the BP. In an effort to build the next Brandon Morrow rather than paying full retail price for him, let's try to find the Braves SPs who are most likely to see the best increase in stuff if moved to the BP.

The method will be to compare the pitcher's average FF/FT/SI velocity to their max velocity. We will assume the pitcher could throw more closely to his max velocity if he were letting it fly for 20 pitches out of the BP.

The results are dominated by Colon showing many 5+ MPH deltas between his average and max (93+ MPH).

Here are the more interesting max results for the relevant SPs:

Sims: +4.9 to 96.7 MPH
Folty: +4.7 to 99.9 MPH
Fried: +4.5 to 96.9 MPH
Newk: +4.3 to 98.0 MPH
Julio: +4.3 to 95.6 MPH
Gohara: +3.5 to 100.0 MPH

Sims at 96+ with that change might be very interesting out of the BP.

Folty would be a monster.

Fried at 97 with that curve would be deadly.

Newk would be obscene.

It's interesting to note Gohara has the smallest delta, meaning he is already the SP throwing closest to max effort all the time.

Now let's take a look around the league at FA SPs who might benefit from a move to the BP. We will be looking at the pitchers at the bottom of this list sorted by "Market Value": http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/available/

Below are the most interesting results:

player_id player_name (age) velocity max delta
503449 Wily Peralta (29) 96 99.4 3.4
545363 Jacob Turner (27) 95 98.3 3.3
502032 Bud Norris (33) 94.1 97.6 3.5
543475 Jordan Lyles (27) 93.8 97.7 3.9
429719 Edwin Jackson (34) 93.1 98 4.9
490063 Matt Garza (34) 91.9 95.4 3.5
489119 Wade Miley (31) 90.8 95.4 4.6

Edwin Jackson sees the largest jump in this group. He goes from 93 to 98.

Peralta, Turner, and Lyles become 97+ flame throwers who are still on the right side of 30.

Norris is old, but he turns into a 97+ guy as well.

Garza and Miley see jumps to 95+ that could make them effective.

I would be very interested in seeing the Braves acquire Peralta, Turner or Lyles and seeing if they could be converted into elite BP arms for cheap. I think Jackson and Norris would be good candidates as well.
 
As an additional thought, it is interesting to see the Braves have so many guys seemly "holding back" with their fastballs by 4-5 MPH compared to the rest of the league. I'm not sure what that says about the Braves as a whole, but it could be a sign they are being taught to dial the velocity down in an effort to improve control...and it isn't working.

So they are intentionally throwing more slowly for no benefit.
 
One thing I like about a lot of our young starters is they project to be very, very good relievers if they can't stick in the rotation. Sims and Folty are probably the top two candidates to land in the pen.

Sims is the most likely. I think his stuff plays up a lot in the pen and that his value out there potentially vastly outstrips his value in the rotation.

If Folty went to the pen I could see him being a shut down closer tomorrow. His fastball would probably sit at 98+ and his curve would just be unfair.

We also have some guys coming up in the system who could be pretty nasty out of the pen. I think Touki is getting auditioned there in the AFL. If they move him there fulltime, with his FB/Curve combo I think he ends the season in Atlanta.
 
Sims has an incredibly impressive curve that would work well when paired with an increased velocity fastball out of the bullpen. Toussaint had an incredible run in Mississippi in the rotation (most everyone in Arizona maxes out at 3 IP per outing, so why not get him time as a reliever), so he'll likely open with Mississippi in the rotation.
 
It will sort itself out. We'll be able to put together a strong pen from the guys who wash out as starters. I don't have strong preconceptions as to who will make it as starters and who will end up in the pen, except for seeing Gohara and Soroka as being a bit ahead of the pack as far as starter material goes.
 
biggentleben said:
Sims has an incredibly impressive curve that would work well when paired with an increased velocity fastball out of the bullpen. Toussaint had an incredible run in Mississippi in the rotation (most everyone in Arizona maxes out at 3 IP per outing, so why not get him time as a reliever), so he'll likely open with Mississippi in the rotation.
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With Touki, he's got the big fastball and ridiculous curve. Two potentially plus-plus pitches. The change and his control will determine if he's a starter or reliever.

With Touki though, if you put him in the pen he could be another Kimbrel. It's not him failing out of the rotation with that upside. Just maximizing his value.
 
I like the premise of this, my only question is how many BP spots do we truly have open? Here is how I see things with the guys currently on our 40-man roster..

This is assuming the following are apart of our rotation to open the year: Julio Teheran / Mike Foltynewicz / Luis Gohara / Sean Newcomb / Max Fried

Locks to be in bullpen on opening day 2018: (assuming healthy and no trades)

1. Arodys Vizcaino

2. A.J Minter

3. Dan Winkler

4. Sam Freeman

Likely to be in Opening Day Bullpen (assuming healthy and no trades)

1. Jose Ramirez (I almost consider him a lock)

2. Jim Johnson (don't know if he can be traded nor if we'd be willing to eat his remaining $)

Should be in Opening Day Bullpen but could open in Minors

1. Akeel Morris

2. Jacob Lindgren

Other options

1. Rex Brothers

2. Jason Hursh

3. Luke Jackson

4. Mauricio Cabrera

5. Jesse Biddle

6. Armando Rivero

Starters who could/would make good BP arms: (for opening day)

1. Lucas Sims

2. Matt Wisler

The reason I make this chart is because are the upgrades available better than what we currently have (again assuming no trades are made that include above names) as "locks" and which should probably include both Ramirez and Lindgren. If we include them both, that puts us at SIX and without a long man, which could be Sims or Wisler. Let me say, I'm not saying I'm against adding an arm or two at all, but rather curious as to what everyone thinks about our current options and how they stack up (in your mind) against outside options. To me, I like what we have but would try to bring in both Peralta and Lyles to see what they could offer and if nothing else give you AAA depth in either the bullpen or rotation (if needed).
 
Agreed.

I think there is room for 1 BP addition, and I was trying to identify someone the Braves could get cheaply and them convert him into an elite BP weapon.

Peralta, Turner and Lyles are guys I think could possibly be like Morrow without paying $30M.
 
Enscheff said:
Agreed.

I think there is room for 1 BP addition, and I was trying to identify someone the Braves could get cheaply and them convert him into an elite BP weapon.

Peralta, Turner and Lyles are guys I think could possibly be like Morrow without paying $30M.
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I agree 100% with this. I would prefer Peralta and Lyles in that order. Nice chart and research Enscheff.
 
blueagleace1 said:
I like the premise of this, my only question is how many BP spots do we truly have open? Here is how I see things with the guys currently on our 40-man roster..

This is assuming the following are apart of our rotation to open the year: Julio Teheran / Mike Foltynewicz / Luis Gohara / Sean Newcomb / Max Fried

Locks to be in bullpen on opening day 2018: (assuming healthy and no trades)

1. Arodys Vizcaino
2. A.J Minter
3. Dan Winkler
4. Sam Freeman

Likely to be in Opening Day Bullpen (assuming healthy and no trades)

1. Jose Ramirez (I almost consider him a lock)
2. Jim Johnson (don't know if he can be traded nor if we'd be willing to eat his remaining $)

Should be in Opening Day Bullpen but could open in Minors

1. Akeel Morris
2. Jacob Lindgren

Other options

1. Rex Brothers
2. Jason Hursh
3. Luke Jackson
4. Mauricio Cabrera
5. Jesse Biddle
6. Armando Rivero

Starters who could/would make good BP arms: (for opening day)

1. Lucas Sims
2. Matt Wisler

The reason I make this chart is because are the upgrades available better than what we currently have (again assuming no trades are made that include above names) as "locks" and which should probably include both Ramirez and Lindgren. If we include them both, that puts us at SIX and without a long man, which could be Sims or Wisler. Let me say, I'm not saying I'm against adding an arm or two at all, but rather curious as to what everyone thinks about our current options and how they stack up (in your mind) against outside options. To me, I like what we have but would try to bring in both Peralta and Lyles to see what they could offer and if nothing else give you AAA depth in either the bullpen or rotation (if needed).
Click to expand...

Your breakdown is about right. Right now we head into spring training with six guys who have been productive in the past year or over a longer period (and I'm including Ramirez who I view as borderline). The others are question marks or conversion candidates. I like the idea of adding one reliever and going into the year with a strong group in Gwinnett. I wouldn't add a second reliever. But I would look for a veteran starter at reasonable cost. Pitching depth in AAA is a good thing. Teams that start the season with good AAA pitching depth have historically had a track record of strong second halves. It allows them to withstand the normal attrition you see with pitching.
 
My only locks for the pen are Minter and Winkler. It was Lindgren, but I've been told he has an option left. If so you plan to start him in AAA with Watts, Clouse, and Brothers.

I'd have no problem keeping Viz, but I could see him traded with his history and 2 years of arbitration left. He's a semi-lock pending trade value.

Freeman should be trade bait. You don't have a career year at 30 and improve the following year.

Ramirez has outpitched his peripherals and could go either way next season.

Johnson--- nobody knows with him. I think we'll be stuck with him, hoping for a good 1st half.

Morris is one who could make the pen. He's out of options so we can't stash him in AAA.

No way Mauricio or Luke make the roster and they're out of options. I don't see either as Braves.

I see guys like Biddle, Brothers, and Hursh kept to be in AAA. If Lindgren has an option that should be the plan as well.

I think the goal of the pen should be to upgrade with reliable options, flip guys without options, and acquire more guys like Lindgren and Brothers who have options to create a AAA backup pen.
 
Enscheff said:
As an additional thought, it is interesting to see the Braves have so many guys seemly "holding back" with their fastballs by 4-5 MPH compared to the rest of the league. I'm not sure what that says about the Braves as a whole, but it could be a sign they are being taught to dial the velocity down in an effort to improve control...and it isn't working.

So they are intentionally throwing more slowly for no benefit.
Click to expand...

I agree. There seems to be a control/"pitch to contact" mentality afoot. Baseball goes in cycles and maybe that approach comes back at some point, but it's increasingly a "power arm" game and if a team has power arms, they should let them cut it loose.

I've always liked Jacob Turner's potential (but it hasn't blossomed and perhaps never will). Like the other arms mentioned here as well. Curious that the Braves totally missed the boat on Bud Norris.
 
Jaw said:
Good change, good curve, decent fastball.

Why isn't this guy working as a starter again?
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He has a usable sinker too. Sims is the kind of pitcher a talented coaching staff and analytic group like the Cards or Indians or Pirates usually turn into useful pitchers.

Unfortunately, the Braves do not possess such a coaching staff or analytic group. That's why we've seen no improvements from any pitcher in the last several years.
 
It's so strange that we're rebuilding around pitching prospects but we don't seem to have the ability to coach the pitchers that we have.
 
Dan Meyer and Dennis Lewalyn are two of the highest-regarded pitching coaches in all of minor league baseball. Meyer's name was even tossed around as a guy who should be considered for MLB jobs that were open this offseason. However, the MLB pitching coach has always seemed to be an issue, and then there's Snitker....
 
Enscheff said:
It is common knowledge SPs see their stuff tick up when they are allowed to pitch in short bursts out of the BP. In an effort to build the next Brandon Morrow rather than paying full retail price for him, let's try to find the Braves SPs who are most likely to see the best increase in stuff if moved to the BP.

The method will be to compare the pitcher's average FF/FT/SI velocity to their max velocity. We will assume the pitcher could throw more closely to his max velocity if he were letting it fly for 20 pitches out of the BP.

The results are dominated by Colon showing many 5+ MPH deltas between his average and max (93+ MPH).

Here are the more interesting max results for the relevant SPs:

Sims: +4.9 to 96.7 MPH
Folty: +4.7 to 99.9 MPH
Fried: +4.5 to 96.9 MPH
Newk: +4.3 to 98.0 MPH
Julio: +4.3 to 95.6 MPH
Gohara: +3.5 to 100.0 MPH

Sims at 96+ with that change might be very interesting out of the BP.

Folty would be a monster.

Fried at 97 with that curve would be deadly.

Newk would be obscene.

It's interesting to note Gohara has the smallest delta, meaning he is already the SP throwing closest to max effort all the time.

Now let's take a look around the league at FA SPs who might benefit from a move to the BP. We will be looking at the pitchers at the bottom of this list sorted by "Market Value": http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/available/

Below are the most interesting results:

player_id player_name (age) velocity max delta
503449 Wily Peralta (29) 96 99.4 3.4
545363 Jacob Turner (27) 95 98.3 3.3
502032 Bud Norris (33) 94.1 97.6 3.5
543475 Jordan Lyles (27) 93.8 97.7 3.9
429719 Edwin Jackson (34) 93.1 98 4.9
490063 Matt Garza (34) 91.9 95.4 3.5
489119 Wade Miley (31) 90.8 95.4 4.6

Edwin Jackson sees the largest jump in this group. He goes from 93 to 98.

Peralta, Turner, and Lyles become 97+ flame throwers who are still on the right side of 30.

Norris is old, but he turns into a 97+ guy as well.

Garza and Miley see jumps to 95+ that could make them effective.

I would be very interested in seeing the Braves acquire Peralta, Turner or Lyles and seeing if they could be converted into elite BP arms for cheap. I think Jackson and Norris would be good candidates as well.
Click to expand...

Weigel?
 
blueagleace1 said:
Will be out through at least June (that would be 12 months removed from his TJ surgery) and possibly longer.
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I would just expect he's not available for 2018 and be pleasantly surprised if he pitches at all.

Akin to what SHOULD have been the attitude on Ozzie's first half after the broken elbow, but the team put out info that did him absolutely no favors. I cannot imagine he'll want to hang around the Braves the way he's been handled along the way so far, especially with Snit still around to be his major league manager after what happened in Gwinnett.
 
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