Identifying BP Conversion Candidates

[biggentleben]

I think his fastball is a bit straight.

...as a starter, which has always baffled me when he works in short stints and gets excellent life on the pitch. His AFL fastball in one-inning stints was incredible, but the longer he worked, the less movement it had.

 

[striker42]

As an additional thought, it is interesting to see the Braves have so many guys seemly "holding back" with their fastballs by 4-5 MPH compared to the rest of the league. I'm not sure what that says about the Braves as a whole, but it could be a sign they are being taught to dial the velocity down in an effort to improve control...and it isn't working.

So they are intentionally throwing more slowly for no benefit.

I think it's more likely that the Braves are trying to get guys to dial back on the velocity to get more movement and keep their arms healthier.

 

[Enscheff]

I think it's more likely that the Braves are trying to get guys to dial back on the velocity to get more movement and keep their arms healthier.

I haven't seen anything that suggests throwing slower increases movement. Whatever the reason, it's not working. The Braves pitchers have all been pretty bad.

What's the point in having healthy terrible pitchers?

 

[Chico]

Peralta and Lyles were used mostly as reliever last year and Turner has been used as reliever the last couple of years when on a major league team.

Morrow was a reliever turned starter back to reliever when he couldn't stay healthy. It's not like he's been a starter this whole time and someone figured out he could be a reliever.

If we're looking for fringe starters to convert to relievers I think we could do that with Sims and Wisler.

The reason to go after a priven BP arm is for dependablity and to help solidify the pen. Viz, Minter, and Winkler are our best options and none have proven they can stay healthy an entire grueling season.

 

[striker42]

I haven't seen anything that suggests throwing slower increases movement. Whatever the reason, it's not working. The Braves pitchers have all been pretty bad.

What's the point in having healthy terrible pitchers?

Overthrowing any pitch can rob it of its natural movement. It's not uncommon to see young pitchers overthrowing in attempts to light up the radar gun. If they back off they can sometimes get more life on their pitches.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be going for more velocity, just that there are some legitimate reasons to have pitchers back off a little bit from max effort.

 

[Chico]

Overthrowing any pitch can rob it of its natural movement. It's not uncommon to see young pitchers overthrowing in attempts to light up the radar gun. If they back off they can sometimes get more life on their pitches.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be going for more velocity, just that there are some legitimate reasons to have pitchers back off a little bit from max effort.

I forgot who said it, but there was a pitchign coach who said "I can teach them to take some off to hit their spots, I can't teach them to rare back for something extra when they need it"

 

[Enscheff]

Overthrowing any pitch can rob it of its natural movement. It's not uncommon to see young pitchers overthrowing in attempts to light up the radar gun. If they back off they can sometimes get more life on their pitches.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be going for more velocity, just that there are some legitimate reasons to have pitchers back off a little bit from max effort.

That's a nice bit of anecdotal evidence, but like I said, I've never seen any real data that suggests pitches move more when thrown with less velocity.

Movement caused by the Magnus force is a function of spin and velocity. The same spin on a slower pitch will move less. A slower pitch having more movement means it would have to have more spin, and there is zero evidence that's the case. If some exists I would love to read it.

If the Braves are telling their pitchers to throw with less velocity to increase movement that's just another example of them being stuck in the stone age.

More likely they are trying to improve command (not working), or to prevent injury (seems to be working). But again, what's the point in having healthy terrible pitchers?

 

[Southcack77]

I would just expect he's not available for 2018 and be pleasantly surprised if he pitches at all.

Akin to what SHOULD have been the attitude on Ozzie's first half after the broken elbow, but the team put out info that did him absolutely no favors. I cannot imagine he'll want to hang around the Braves the way he's been handled along the way so far, especially with Snit still around to be his major league manager after what happened in Gwinnett.

Are you talking about Ozzie or Weigel here?

If Weigel what's the call for complaint there? What happened in Gwinnett.

 

[striker42]

That's a nice bit of anecdotal evidence, but like I said, I've never seen any real data that suggests pitches move more when thrown with less velocity.

Movement caused by the Magnus force is a function of spin and velocity. The same spin on a slower pitch will move less. A slower pitch having more movement means it would have to have more spin, and there is zero evidence that's the case. If some exists I would love to read it.

If the Braves are telling their pitchers to throw with less velocity to increase movement that's just another example of them being stuck in the stone age.

More likely they are trying to improve command (not working), or to prevent injury (seems to be working). But again, what's the point in having healthy terrible pitchers?

I didn't mean to imply that throwing at a lower velocity creates more movement. What I meant was that throwing at a lower effort can often mean more movement. Pitchers going for max velocity and overthrowing can see their pitches flatten out. Backing off a little and executing the pitch correctly can lead to more movement.

This is more true for a sinker or breaking ball than a four seamer though. If you overthrow a sinker and it stays up.

 

[Enscheff]

I didn't mean to imply that throwing at a lower velocity creates more movement. What I meant was that throwing at a lower effort can often mean more movement. Pitchers going for max velocity and overthrowing can see their pitches flatten out. Backing off a little and executing the pitch correctly can lead to more movement.

This is more true for a sinker or breaking ball than a four seamer though. If you overthrow a sinker and it stays up.

So your theory is that decreasing effort increases spin rate?

If you have any data to back that up I would be very interested.

If you don't I'll just chalk it up to being an anecdote.

 

[striker42]

So your theory is that decreasing effort increases spin rate?

If you have any data to back that up I would be very interested.

If you don't I'll just chalk it up to being an anecdote.

Just what pitching coaches say. I don't know if there's ever been a study on overthrowing's effect on spin.

But whether or not overthrowing actually causes a loss in movement isn't necessarily the question. If the Braves coaches believe that their pitchers will get more movement by backing off just a bit and focusing on executing the pitch, then that goes to explaining why there's the difference in velocity you were talking about.

Personally, I think it's about executing the pitch. I believe that if you go max effort and execute the pitch correctly then you wont lose any movement. It's just harder to do that. If you're trying to throw harder and harder every pitch then I think you'll generally start failing to execute and wont get the spin you need.

 

[Enscheff]

Just what pitching coaches say. I don't know if there's ever been a study on overthrowing's effect on spin.

But whether or not overthrowing actually causes a loss in movement isn't necessarily the question. If the Braves coaches believe that their pitchers will get more movement by backing off just a bit and focusing on executing the pitch, then that goes to explaining why there's the difference in velocity you were talking about.

Personally, I think it's about executing the pitch. I believe that if you go max effort and execute the pitch correctly then you wont lose any movement. It's just harder to do that. If you're trying to throw harder and harder every pitch then I think you'll generally start failing to execute and wont get the spin you need.

If that's what the Braves coaches believe, then that's more proof they are living in the stone age.

Folty threw 580 pitches classified as sliders last year. Here they are with velocity plotted against spin rate:

There is practically zero correlation between velocity and spin rate. Any small amount of correlation shows increased velocity corresponds to higher spin rates.

It took me 58 seconds to learn lower velocity does not produce more spin. I would hope the Braves 1 man analytics team could do the same.

 

[DirkPiggler]

If that's what the Braves coaches believe, then that's more proof they are living in the stone age.

Folty threw 580 pitches classified as sliders last year. Here they are with velocity plotted against spin rate:

There is practically zero correlation between velocity and spin rate. Any small amount of correlation shows increased velocity corresponds to higher spin rates.

It took me 58 seconds to learn lower velocity does not produce more spin. I would hope the Braves 1 man analytics team could do the same.

I think I get what striker is trying to say.

It's obvious that the same pitch thrown with the same mechanics is going to move more if thrown at a higher velocity. But if throwing harder to get that extra velocity causes the mechanics to get out of whack then it brings all kinds of problems into play, one of which could be a reduction of the spin rate.

Think about it in terms of a golf swing. If you swing with max effort it's harder to get the club face square and much easier to get your eyes off the ball causing an errant shot. Granted, if you can keep the swing mechanics perfect you can absolutely crush the ball, but the margin for error is greater. By focusing more on controlling the swing you might give up a few yards over your max distance, but you'll also find the fairway more often.

Either way it's an interesting discussion. I'm excited to see what we learn as we get more Statcast data.

 

[rico43]

Rivero is gone, released. I like the idea of Sims sharing closer duties if not battling to it outright. Main reason is that I like his makeup; almost 180 degrees from Folty.

 

[striker42]

I think I get what striker is trying to say.

It's obvious that the same pitch thrown with the same mechanics is going to move more if thrown at a higher velocity. But if throwing harder to get that extra velocity causes the mechanics to get out of whack then it brings all kinds of problems into play, one of which could be a reduction of the spin rate.

Think about it in terms of a golf swing. If you swing with max effort it's harder to get the club face square and much easier to get your eyes off the ball causing an errant shot. Granted, if you can keep the swing mechanics perfect you can absolutely crush the ball, but the margin for error is greater. By focusing more on controlling the swing you might give up a few yards over your max distance, but you'll also find the fairway more often.

Either way it's an interesting discussion. I'm excited to see what we learn as we get more Statcast data.

This is it exactly.

 

[striker42]

A couple other points. First, rotation alone isn't everything. You need the ball to spin in the correct manner so the seams move through the air causing the ball to move.

Second, overthrowing can actually reduce velocity. If you put too much into it and screw up your mechanics, you can see your velocity drop.

It's more complex than a simple velocity and spin rate chart.

 

[biggentleben]

Are you talking about Ozzie or Weigel here?

If Weigel what's the call for complaint there? What happened in Gwinnett.

Both. Weigel in the first line. Ozzie in the rest. There's a reason Ozzie struggled so badly and the team was willing to demote him to get him out of Gwinnett in 2016 - and it wasn't to play he and Swanson together. Crazy part is that it all happened under Snitker's watch...or lack thereof.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I assume there are other factors that go into movement other than spin rate, but I don't know 100% if that is the case. I would be genuinely curios if it is. I ask this because you guys have been talking about the relationship between spin rate and velocity, but is it possible that you can generate as much or more movement on a pitch with lower spin rates, if the pitch is thrown at a slower speed? For example, would a pitch thrown at 85 mph with spin rate of 2500 move more or less than a pitch at 90/2800?

I don't know whether that is the case or not, but I would be interested to see the data

 

[Southcack77]

Both. Weigel in the first line. Ozzie in the rest. There's a reason Ozzie struggled so badly and the team was willing to demote him to get him out of Gwinnett in 2016 - and it wasn't to play he and Swanson together. Crazy part is that it all happened under Snitker's watch...or lack thereof.

Well that's intriguing. What was the reason?

 

[Enscheff]

I assume there are other factors that go into movement other than spin rate, but I don't know 100% if that is the case. I would be genuinely curios if it is. I ask this because you guys have been talking about the relationship between spin rate and velocity, but is it possible that you can generate as much or more movement on a pitch with lower spin rates, if the pitch is thrown at a slower speed? For example, would a pitch thrown at 85 mph with spin rate of 2500 move more or less than a pitch at 90/2800?

I don't know whether that is the case or not, but I would be interested to see the data

Movement is a function of spin rate, spin angle, and velocity. It also matters which seams are spinning, which is why four-seamers and two-seamers have distinctly different movement.

There are several articles written by Dr. Nathan about the physics of pitch movement.

This notion that decreasing effort increases movement is simply not backed up by any data and is exactly the kind of 90s thinking the Braves must avoid. I just showed how lower velocity doesn't correlate with more movement for Folty's slider. If he were "able to execute the pitch better" at lower velocity we would see it in the data. We do not see any such correlation. A similar exercise can be done for any pitcher, and I imagine the results will be largely the same.