Identifying BP Conversion Candidates

[BeanieAntics]

Movement is a function of spin rate, spin angle, and velocity. It also matters which seams are spinning, which is why four-seamers and two-seamers have distinctly different movement.

There are several articles written by Dr. Nathan about the physics of pitch movement.

This notion that decreasing effort increases movement is simply not backed up by any data and is exactly the kind of 90s thinking the Braves must avoid. I just showed how lower velocity doesn't correlate with more movement for Folty's slider. If he were "able to execute the pitch better" at lower velocity we would see it in the data. We do not see any such correlation. A similar exercise can be done for any pitcher, and I imagine the results will be largely the same.

Okay yeah this is kind of what I was looking for. I just hadn't really studied the data on this topic

 

[striker42]

Movement is a function of spin rate, spin angle, and velocity. It also matters which seams are spinning, which is why four-seamers and two-seamers have distinctly different movement.

There are several articles written by Dr. Nathan about the physics of pitch movement.

This notion that decreasing effort increases movement is simply not backed up by any data and is exactly the kind of 90s thinking the Braves must avoid. I just showed how lower velocity doesn't correlate with more movement for Folty's slider. If he were "able to execute the pitch better" at lower velocity we would see it in the data. We do not see any such correlation. A similar exercise can be done for any pitcher, and I imagine the results will be largely the same.

I honestly don't care that much. But to be fair, the chart you provided shows velocity and RPMs. RPM doesn't necessarily mean movement. As you said, spin angle and the location of the seams are important as well. You can have sliders that are spinning at a high rate but because the seams aren't lined up correctly it does nothing but spin. Alternatively, it might move a ton but not in the way you want and so ends up moving right over the heart of the plate.

So perhaps the better way of putting it is that you back off a little to get the ball to move how you want it to. You back off so you can execute the pitch.

Of course, the biggest reason you have young pitchers back off some is because it helps command. Which makes me wonder how much worse the command of someone like Sims would be if he threw closer to max.

 

[Enscheff]

I honestly don't care that much. But to be fair, the chart you provided shows velocity and RPMs. RPM doesn't necessarily mean movement. As you said, spin angle and the location of the seams are important as well. You can have sliders that are spinning at a high rate but because the seams aren't lined up correctly it does nothing but spin. Alternatively, it might move a ton but not in the way you want and so ends up moving right over the heart of the plate.

So perhaps the better way of putting it is that you back off a little to get the ball to move how you want it to. You back off so you can execute the pitch.

Of course, the biggest reason you have young pitchers back off some is because it helps command. Which makes me wonder how much worse the command of someone like Sims would be if he threw closer to max.

This is what I think the goal is, and it is also worrisome.

The way to fix command is to identify and repeat sound mechanics. As the pitcher becomes more attuned to these mechanics and can repeat them time after time, improved command follows. At that point max effort ceases to hurt command as much.

No Braves pitcher since Kimbrel has improved his command since joining the MLB team, so whatever they are teaching isn't working.

If the Braves pitching coaches are just saying, "dial it back to gain control", that is a problem. They are giving up velocity and effectiveness to gain control, but the control still sucks.

Meanwhile, some good pitching coaches changed teams this offseason and the Braves missed the boat.

 

[DirkPiggler]

This is what I think the goal is, and it is also worrisome.

If the Braves pitching coaches are just saying, "dial it back to gain control", that is a problem. They are giving up velocity and effectiveness to gain control, but the control still sucks.

Meanwhile, some good pitching coaches changed teams this offseason and the Braves missed the boat.

This is a key point.

If there is a mechanical reason to reduce the effort - a specific flaw that the coaches feel can help the player execute the pitch better - then fine, do it. But as you said, if they're just telling the pitchers to back off a bit it's no more than throwing **** on the wall to see what sticks.

I have zero faith in Chuck Hernandez. He should've been the first one to get the axe.

 

[Enscheff]

I would be very interested in seeing the Braves acquire Peralta, Turner or Lyles and seeing if they could be converted into elite BP arms for cheap. I think Jackson and Norris would be good candidates as well.

Looks like KC is going to try the Peralta to the BP experiment I suggested:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/royals-to-sign-wily-peralta.html

I think this was a very good move if they convert him to a BP arm, in my opinion. Maybe Moore is smarter than I gave him credit for!!

 

[biggentleben]

Looks like KC is going to try the Peralta to the BP experiment I suggested:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/royals-to-sign-wily-peralta.html

I think this was a very good move if they convert him to a BP arm, in my opinion. Maybe Moore is smarter than I gave him credit for!!

I mentioned this to one of my co-editors at one of my sites, and he is a Royals fan. He's not a fan, but I then explained that Peralta's sinker is an absolute beast of a pitch, and while it's the same average velo of a pitch as his four-seamer, it doesn't have the same velocity peak, just a ton more movement. Combine that with his sharp slider rather than the sweeping version that he has tried (without success) to control, and he could have a solid role. The money was great as well for the Royals. I also like the idea of him going to the Royals, where they've been great with moving away from four-seamers as a reliever - allowing a split, sinker, or even cutter to be a primary reliever fastball.

I actually signed Peralta for the Twins in a recent simulation that I participated in as the GM of the Twins. I paid just a touch more in guaranteed money, but that was more based on the guy running the thing forcing a higher deal than me thinking Peralta would get that.