If We Can Sign Only 1 Current Brave to a Long-Term Deal...

nsacpi said:
That's sort of the point about first basemen in general. They play the least demanding position in the game. Most of them are slow. It is the nature of the beast and has to be taken into account when trying to judge how valuable a player is or how difficult he is to replace. If Freddie had more range he'd be playing a different position. He does have a very good arm (was highly regarded as a HS pitcher), so I assume range is the reason he is not playing some other position. I believe he played a handful of games at third in the low minors.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

All I have to look at for the 2 is their current peaks and valleys.

Their fWAR by season

Freddie

2011 - 0.7

2012 - 1.8

2013 - 4.8

Now one tthing to give Freddie a bit of benefit is that number doesn't factor in saved throws (no real way to track that) so in reality he's likely better than that by a bit.

Compared to Jason

2010 - 4.7

2011 - 2.0

2012 - 6.4

2013 - 3.4

The only reason someone can give me for keeping Freddie over Jason is that they are concerned about Jason's health. That's it. Heyward is a much more valuable player. Even if Freddie is hitting more, Jason runs the bases way better and fields way better. Someone having a decent advantage in hitting cannot bring me to ignore the massive advantage in the 2 other aspects of the game.
 
Or the fact that WAR has a defensive component attached to it that isn't really perfected at this point.
 
thethe said:
Or the fact that WAR has a defensive component attached to it that isn't really perfected at this point.
Click to expand...

No doubt that defensive stats are not perfect. But from watching the games, I think there is a large gap between Heyward and Fredi in terms of defensive and baserunning value. The gaps in those areas more than offset Fredi's edge in the hitting department imo.

Fredi is the better and more consistent hitter. Jason is the better all around player. Imperfections in defensive stats might make it difficult to quantify exactly how much better, but I don't think there is much doubt about it.

Btw I also think Heyward is a better player than Simmons. But for the reasons I listed in the opening post, I would rather sign Simmons to the long term deal if I had to choose just one current Brave.
 
thethe said:
Or the fact that WAR has a defensive component attached to it that isn't really perfected at this point.
Click to expand...

FWIW their offensive runs if you compare their 3 full seasons (not including Jason's injury riddled 2011)

Jason has a total of 35 runs position adjusted, Freddie has 27.7 total. Of course Jason is helped by the amount of time he played in CF this year (which in WAR is reflected by his lower defensive runs so it evens out in the big picture) but RF are not expected to hit at the same level as a 1B.
 
nsacpi said:
No doubt that defensive stats are not perfect. But from watching the games, I think there is a large gap between Heyward and Fredi in terms of defensive and baserunning value. The gaps in those areas more than offset Fredi's edge in the hitting department imo.

Fredi is the better and more consistent hitter. Jason is the better all around player. Imperfections in defensive stats might make it difficult to quantify exactly how much better, but I don't think there is much doubt about it.

Btw I also think Heyward is a better player than Simmons. But for the reasons I listed in the opening post, I would rather sign Simmons to the long term deal if I had to choose just one current Brave.
Click to expand...

All those other things that Heyward does is great but I believe that you need at least one hitter in your lineup that is an absolute stud and that is where Freddi is going. I'm not saying that I don't want Heyward here long term but the way I would build a ballclub is to ensure that I have at least that one guy who can wreck a game with his bat. Heyward hasn't shown that yet IMO on a consistent basis. Again, this belief is based on the fact that I think Freeman is going to become an even better hitter than he was last year.
 
Look at what David Ortiz did in the playoffs last year. You are going to tell me that someone like Ellsbury was more valueable than him because he played center field?
 
thethe said:
Look at what David Ortiz did in the playoffs last year. You are going to tell me that someone like Ellsbury was more valueable than him because he played center field?
Click to expand...

Sample size. If Ortiz doesn't hit he's worthless and you'd have a counter arguemen.t
 
thethe said:
All those other things that Heyward does is great but I believe that you need at least one hitter in your lineup that is an absolute stud and that is where Freddi is going. I'm not saying that I don't want Heyward here long term but the way I would build a ballclub is to ensure that I have at least that one guy who can wreck a game with his bat. Heyward hasn't shown that yet IMO on a consistent basis. Again, this belief is based on the fact that I think Freeman is going to become an even better hitter than he was last year.
Click to expand...

A great hitter like Freddie is nice to have. But there are multiple ways to build a championship club.
 
thethe said:
Look at what David Ortiz did in the playoffs last year. You are going to tell me that someone like Ellsbury was more valueable than him because he played center field?
Click to expand...

Then you have the Giants winning two world series in recent years without a big bopper. Different mix. Some great pitching. A great player in Posey. But no big bopper.
 
zitothebrave said:
Sample size. If Ortiz doesn't hit he's worthless and you'd have a counter arguemen.t
Click to expand...

You are proposing a situation that didn't exist. I am showing something that actually happened. David Ortiz has zero defensive/base running value but he is a great hitter. He was the biggest reason they won the world series IMO. I believe Freeman can develop into that type of hitter and those type of hitters are the most important thing a baseball team can have.
 
nsacpi said:
Then you have the Giants winning two world series in recent years without a big bopper. Different mix. Some great pitching. A great player in Posey. But no big bopper.
Click to expand...

Listen, if you want to give me all that great pitching I'll take it. That isn't what we are discussing here though.
 
thethe said:
Listen, if you want to give me all that great pitching I'll take it. That isn't what we are discussing here though.
Click to expand...

My apologies if I strayed beyond the boundaries of the discussion, but I was responding to your claim that it was essential to have an elite hitter in the middle of your lineup. I don't disagree that it is a big plus having such a hitter. But there are so many different ways to construct a championship team. The Giants teams of 2010 and 2012 are examples. Other interesting examples are the 2002 Angels and the 2005 White Sox.
 
I get the point that you are trying to make. For what its worth I think we have the foundation of a great rotation so we might have that in addition to a player like Heyward or Freeman. Either way, just a belief I have in terms of team construction. All hitters can get hot but those truly great hitters can take it to another level and that is what Ortiz did this year.
 
thethe said:
I get the point that you are trying to make. For what its worth I think we have the foundation of a great rotation so we might have that in addition to a player like Heyward or Freeman. Either way, just a belief I have in terms of team construction. All hitters can get hot but those truly great hitters can take it to another level and that is what Ortiz did this year.
Click to expand...

I would love to have Ted Williams in the middle of our lineup. But I would base that upon his performance in any particular post-season series.
 
nsacpi said:
I would love to have Ted Williams in the middle of our lineup. But I would base that upon his performance in any particular post-season series.
Click to expand...

Probability of occurrence is higher with a great hitter. I get the argument that you and Zito are making but I think in this sabermetric age, pure hitting ability is becoming devalued.
 
thethe said:
Probability of occurrence is higher with a great hitter. I get the argument that you and Zito are making but I think in this sabermetric age, pure hitting ability is becoming devalued.
Click to expand...

It is the Miguel Cabrera vs Mike Trout argument. So far the dinosaurs err traditionalists seem to be carrying the day when it comes to MVP voting.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top