Implications of the Trade

yeezus said:
It may be difficult to be patient for a team who wants Price. Might not be able to wait it out.
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Correct. If you feel you must have a particular pitcher, your ability to exploit the market is limited. But that is a choice each team looking for starting pitching will have to make. In recent off-seasons, there have been some good pitchers available late. Three years ago it was Lohse looking for a team, two years ago it was Santana. I think it will even more of a buyers market this off-season.
 
smootness said:
Scherzer got it, so I see no reason why Price wouldn't. If you decide you're going to do what you can to get an ace, you have to be prepared to at least approach $30 million. That's the going rate.
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The Scherzer contract was unique though in that some of the money was paid as signing bonus and some as deferred. MLB is counting it somewhere between 25-27 mill per year on their books. I do expect him to get between 25-30 mil per year though. It's just going to depend on what team he wants to go to; does he want to win right away?
 
gilesfan said:
The Scherzer contract was unique though in that some of the money was paid as signing bonus and some as deferred. MLB is counting it somewhere between 25-27 mill per year on their books. I do expect him to get between 25-30 mil per year though. It's just going to depend on what team he wants to go to; does he want to win right away?
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This may or may not be true, we'll see. But I don't see a guy who picks his team based on wanting to win right away picking the Braves.
 
You guys are insane if you think Price and ZG are going to sign for appreciably less than $30M per year. The Dodgers will probably keep ZG for right under Kershaw money (per year, not total contract). Now that Price can't be offered a QO, someone will give him $180M+. Cueto will slot in right around $25M per year, and Zimmerman will get about $20M. Lord help the teams that overpay for Cueto and Zimm though...I hope it isn't the Braves.

I agree the Braves need to bring in a significant pitcher, but they should wait until all the dust settles and get one of the remaining guys at a bargain. Like many folks have already pointed out, there is a glut of MOR guys, and I would be shocked if the Braves didn't sign one to a 3-4 year deal. I just hope they play their cards right and don't overpay for it.
 
We don't know how these guys are. Some want the max deal and some wanna be happy where they play. Obviously any team willing to give up that much money is planning on winning. Price grew up a Braves fan and is from the area. If the Braves offer 25-27 per year I'd be shocked if he didn't take it. The Braves will sit him down and tell them the direction the club is going and it's very positive.
 
If the Braves had a contending team players who prioritize winning might have given us a discount.
 
If the Braves sign Price for $25M-$27M per year they got the FA bargain of the decade, and I still don't think it will be a good idea. Haven't we seen enough pitchers break down all over the sport to understand it is foolish to sign them to such huge deals?
 
I don't think it will take quite as much to sign Price as others think. I'd like to front load the deal. 2016-32

2017-30

2018-28

2019-28

2020-27

2021-25

2022-25



With a 5 million signing bonus.
 
Enscheff said:
If the Braves sign Price for $25M-$27M per year they got the FA bargain of the decade, and I still don't think it will be a good idea. Haven't we seen enough pitchers break down all over the sport to understand it is foolish to sign them to such huge deals?
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Insurance.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
I don't think it will take quite as much to sign Price as others think. I'd like to front load the deal. 2016-32
2017-30
2018-28
2019-28
2020-27
2021-25
2022-25

With a 5 million signing bonus.
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Price signs for 6 years and $168M after Lester just signed for 6 years and $155M with a vesting option that could make it $170M?

I would say the contract you suggested would be the starting point, bare minimum contract to even get your team in the discussion as a realistic suitor. I would be shocked if Price takes home anything less than a guaranteed $180M, and probably closer to $200M. They may do all sorts of accounting tricks to spread the money out like the Nats did with Scherzer (about $170M when adjusted for inflation rather than $210), but Price is going to get paid.
 
Enscheff said:
Price signs for 6 years and $168M after Lester just signed for 6 years and $155M with a vesting option that could make it $170M?

I would say the contract you suggested would be the starting point, bare minimum contract to even get your team in the discussion as a realistic suitor. I would be shocked if Price takes home anything less than a guaranteed $180M, and probably closer to $200M. They may do all sorts of accounting tricks to spread the money out like the Nats did with Scherzer (about $170M when adjusted for inflation rather than $210), but Price is going to get paid.
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I think you missed my first year. It was for 7 with a signing bonus
 
nsacpi said:
Has become more difficult to insure the bigger longer contracts.
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It's never been easy, per se. That said, based on Price's injury history (mostly minor, and mostly unrelated to the arm) I wouldn't expect too much difficulty acquiring it.
 
Price has not had a tommy John therefore does not qualify to be a Braves pitcher yet

On a more realistic tone...the Braves have NEVER been the type of team to go out and sign a big free agent like a David price or ZG....

I just don't see it happening
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Price has not had a tommy John therefore does not qualify to be a Braves pitcher yet

On a more realistic tone...the Braves have NEVER been the type of team to go out and sign a big free agent like a David price or ZG....

I just don't see it happening
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I dunno. In 93 we had Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery and still went out and signed Maddux (when Bonds was there and we had already showed interest in him via trade that fell through) . I know it's a different regime, but it's also the same one.
 
smootness said:
Scherzer got it, so I see no reason why Price wouldn't. If you decide you're going to do what you can to get an ace, you have to be prepared to at least approach $30 million. That's the going rate.
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Price is great, but he is not as good as Scherzer. And Scherzer was 28 when he signed his deal. Price will be 30.
 
Carp said:
Price is great, but he is not as good as Scherzer. And Scherzer was 28 when he signed his deal. Price will be 30.
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Scherzer was 30 when he signed the deal, same as Price. In fact, Price will be about a month younger than Scherzer was; that obviously doesn't matter, but I don't know where you got 28 from.

I also don't know why you don't see Price as good as Scherzer. As good as this year's Scherzer? No, not quite. As good as Scherzer at the time of his signing? Why not?

Even with this year, Scherzer's career ERA is now 3.43 and his career FIP is 3.28. Price's career ERA is 3.13 and his career FIP is 3.24. Price has thrown 200+ innings 4 times in his career, Scherzer has done it twice.

Price doesn't strike out quite as many as Scherzer, but he still strikes out plenty and walks fewer. Price's career K/BB is 3.64. Scherzer, after this ridiculous year of 9 still just passed Price at 3.66.

By every measure, they are very similar pitchers, and Price has actually done it for longer than Scherzer had. Arguing that Price has less value right now than Scherzer had last year is crazy.
 
dak said:
I think the FA market this year is unusually deep in #2 / #3 starters. That's the market opportunity I'd like to see the Braves exploit. I don't foresee that having a significant impact on Price's market. He's the only guy on this market who has it all: ace-level production and stuff, history of health and durability, great makeup and ability to lead a staff, and no QO attached. I think it's likely someone will give him a contract similar to Scherzer's.

I'm really curious to see what Friedman does on the SP market. He has seemed reluctant thus far to win FA bidding wars for blue chip guys. Will he look for value in #2 / #3 starters like he did last offseason? Will he offer a guy like Price a different type of contract, like $35m AAV over 4 guaranteed years? Should be a nice mix of fun and depressing to watch.
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LA has McCarthy and Ryu out for the year.

With them back, and if they keep Greinke, they'd have Kershaw, Greinke, Wood, McCarthy and Ryu, not too bad.

But if they wanted Price, i'm sure they could find a way to make it happen.
 
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