Implications of the Trade
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
Tapate50
Well-known member
PASS.
That's insane money.
I don't think he will get that much honestly. If so, that's out of our playing field.
Tapate50
Well-known member
In sports, money talks.
You show Heyward the best offer, he signs here I bet.
I highly doubt we have him valued at a 25M per year player unless its for 6 years.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Despite the fact that he's had better seasons as a Brave..
I don't think the FO sees him as valuable as he sees himself. Therefore we won't show him the money. In my opinion, there's zero chance Heyward comes back.
Trying to find comps...Hunter Pence got 18.5 million in 2014 and contracts have gone up since then. Heyward Is vastly superior to Pence and thus, I don't know if Heyward gets 25, but he should get somewhere close and certainly gets more than 20 million per year.
And a skill that both diminishes quickly and is subject to volatility.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Sounds similar to Hart's remarks about last year's team. They are in agreement.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think it is an open question whether defense declines more quickly than hitting production. Also there is a distinction to be made about volatility of defensive stats (where a year's worth of data is equivalent to maybe a month's worth of at bats) and underlying defensive quality.
Has it? I think most of us feel he will be overpaid. We are just in a very different position financially right now and could potentially afford an overpay.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Also any player thinking about committing to the Braves long-term has to consider how Freeman and Simmons feel about what has happened this season. Someone suggested that maybe Freeman could do some recruiting. Not sure that is a good idea.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Should Price or Greinke get $25M. Would you rather have Heyward or Greinke at 25M/year for 8 years.
I think those two pitchers have more impact on wins and losses than Heyward.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Is it a guarantee Greinke gets 8 years?
Greinke at $25MM would at least be worth it for a few years. Heyward's defense-driven game is not worth $25MM.
You just say stuff you make yourself feel better.
Just to put some facts on paper:
Players peak about 27 years old
Bigger players regress at pretty much the same rate as smaller players
Bad defensive players regress much worse than good defensive players. (ie good defensive player becomes better all around players than good offensive players; the axis is about age 32)
High strikeout players have a much smoother aging curve than low strikeout players (high strikeout guys peak a year earlier, but don't hit the skids as bad as low strikeout guys)
In other words, there is no data to suggest Heyward is going to regress any more than other players in their 30s (Heyward is still years away from being at an age where you would expect regression)
Heyward is not an impact bat, but the degree to which the Braves homers try to act like he's at offensively is ludicrous. Since 2012, Heyward is at .270/.345/.432, which is on par with Cespedes, who is about to get paid as well. And in terms of WAR, he's been the 4th best OF in baseball during that time. (you could argue defense is weighed too heavily, but he's still up there nonetheless)
Do people criticize Alex Gordon's lack of offense to this degree? THey are virtually the same player.
Heyward has been worth about 18 wins since 2012. Price has been worth 19.4 and Greinke has been worth 16.7.