Implications of the Trade
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
Seems like Upton/Price/Heyward are going to be the top 3 contracts with Greinke and others a notch below.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
this I agree with. I really like all he does as a player. I still love watching him play, and he does everything right.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Which I think just tells you that you shouldn't just use that stat.
FWIW CC has a 3.84 xFIP and Greinke is at 3.18.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The top contract will be Heyward or Price. The age difference and glut of pitching will likely tip things in Heyward's favor.
Tapate50
Well-known member
I have no idea. It would just be a shot in the dark.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Exactly. Everyone is entitled to their opinions. But it would be nice to see more of them supported by some evidence.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Fangraphs chat:
12:29 Comment From Food Taco
Does Jason Heyward approach $200 million in free agency?
12:30 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.
12:31 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think we’re at the point at which teams will put many nine figure deals in front of corner outfielders that get a majority of their value in defense
12:31 Dan Szymborski: And let’s not forget, defense doesn’t peak. It just declines.
12:31 Dan Szymborski: Heyward’s someone who I believe will end up getting something like 5/95 or 6/120 or something.
12:29 Comment From Food Taco
Does Jason Heyward approach $200 million in free agency?
12:30 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.
12:31 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think we’re at the point at which teams will put many nine figure deals in front of corner outfielders that get a majority of their value in defense
12:31 Dan Szymborski: And let’s not forget, defense doesn’t peak. It just declines.
12:31 Dan Szymborski: Heyward’s someone who I believe will end up getting something like 5/95 or 6/120 or something.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
See, I think one could argue that Heyward, while he's the top position player out there, isn't as far ahead as a lot of other guys as Price is. It's Price, Cueto, Greinke, and who else as far as aces go?
With position players, I think if Heyward is asking for $25MM, teams will go a cheaper, slightly older route while believing they will get close enough production. Signing Span at 4/50 (just a guess) could be a lot more appealing than Jason at 8/200, and I think teams might believe they'll be similarly valuable over the next 2-4 years.
I expect Zimmermann to get about $18-20MM per. Greinke over $25. Price over $25. Cueto in that range. IMO a guy like Latos is far less likely to be close to Price than Span is to be close to Heyward. Unless Heyward finishes super strong and has a real strong playoff showing, I don't see teams going nuts for him.
Come to think of it, I'd love to get Zimmermann at $20MM per.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Yup, I don't see teams going nuts for him.
sturg33
I
Well I guess that settles it then.
And it looks like he does think Heyward can get 9 figures
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The Scherzer deal (210M over 7 years) is probably a reasonable benchmark for what might happen with Price. There are three wrinkles to consider though. One is the fact that Price won't cost a draft pick. That will boost the dollar value of the contract some. Working the other way is the fact that Scherzer's contract is so back loaded. Price could come in with a lower overall number but still be ahead in present value terms. The last wrinkle is the glut of pitching. It was there some last off-season but is much more pronounced this year. There is a lot of good pitching out there.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
he didn't say he can't.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Dave Cameron said this in the offseason:
Because of how quickly he got to the big leagues, Heyward is in line to hit free agency after his age-25 season, and he’s going to have roughly +25 career WAR when he reaches the open market. Barring a disastrous 2015 season, he’s going to get paid, and you can be certain that his agents will be pointing to the 13 year, $325 million deal that Giancarlo Stanton has agreed to as the new precedent. Sure, Heyward isn’t going to get 13/$325M, given the massive differences in power, but it seems likely that he’ll demand a deal that starts at 10 years and goes north of $200 million.
Robinson Cano got $240 million as a similarly valuable player entering his age-31 season; Heyward might not have Cano’s offensive track record, but he’s going to be selling his prime years, and the deal won’t extend into the period of his career where you’d expect him to essentially be worthless. If the Cardinals want to lock up Heyward before he gets to free agency, it’s probably going to take something like the contract they refused to give Albert Pujols. Maybe they might be able get him to take a slight pre-free agent discount and get him for 9/$200M or something in that range, but let’s dispel the notion that the Cardinals are going to be able to sign Heyward for anything other than a mountain of cash.
This was before he improved his stock this year.
Lets look at others:
Heyward 117wRC+, 4.65 WAR/600
Crawford 116 wRC+, 4.5
Betlran 112wRC+, 4.4
Ichiro 117 wRC+ 4.3
Ellsbury 109 wRC+, 4.3
Crawford 7/142
Beltran 17m
Ichiro 18m
Ellsbury 22m
Again, I think Heyward is younger than all of these guys and contracts have escalated in the last few years. The only one that is comparable is Ellsbury at 22 million last year. Heyward is vastly superior to that. Pence got 18.5; again Heyward is vastly superior. Cano got 24 million per year and was over 30. Choo got 7/130.
I would be really shocked if some team got him for 20 million per year. I would think 7/140 would be the absolute minimum someone could even realistically consider getting him for.