I agree. You can always find good defense. You cannot find legit power as easily in today's game.
Implications of the Trade
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
I agree. You can always find good defense. You cannot find legit power as easily in today's game.
Has anyone said teams are going to pay Heyward 13/325 like Stanton?
No...I didn't say they did?
I was confused on why you brought up Stanton.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Mystery solved.
I'm also not convinced his stock improved a ton. All he's done so far is further prove he isn't a middle-of-the-order bat. That's another year of his potential to become one down the drain.
If Heyward was a middle-of-the-order bat to go along with his defense and all-around game, he would be the best player in baseball...meaning that hitting free agency at 26, he would probably get something like at least 10 years and close to $350 million.
He's going to get paid. WAR has proven to correlate pretty well with team records, so I'm not sure why some think it's a hugely flawed stat. And Heyward's offensive value alone has been worth over 2 WAR this year. He's going to easily surpass $20 million per year.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I think it overvalues defense a good deal. While it may work for teams as a whole, Heyward is not a comparable player to Stanton. But WAR will tell you otherwise.
Heyward could be a more legitimate MOTO bat and still not be "the best player in baseball." 20-25 homers would not make him the best player in baseball, but it would certainly get him a ton more money.
bWAR had Cutch and Heyward as equals last year. That is lunacy. I'm not sure how seriously to take that.
The average 3 hitter has 124 wRC+
4 hitter- 116
5 hitter- 102
6 hitter- 95
Heyward is at 117.
sturg33
I
Well, if there's three middle of the order bats on average per team (3, 4, and 5 hitters), that would mean there are 90 in MLB.
By definition, it is. There are 30 teams.
And you keep saying, 'Heyward is not actually that good,' without anything to back it up. It's simply an opinion because we've been trained to see a player's value entirely on BA, HR, and RBI.
The difference, offensively, between Heyward and Stanton is 15-20 HR over the course of a full season. BA and OBP are very similar. So what you're saying is that 15-20 ABs sprinkled over the course of a season is far more valuable than Heyward's constant defense and base running.
Stanton is overvalued by many; Heyward is undervalued by many. Why? HR. That's it.
lol, I def. got a good laugh out of this one.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The 2015 Braves have four MOTOs. Freeman, Markakis, Pierzynski and the recently acquired Olivera.
If this Dan Szymborski guy is right, and Heyward can be signed for $20M over 6 years, I will be very disappointed if the Braves don't sign him. Folks in Braves country are down on him because he didn't turn into Black Chipper like we were all promised, but Black Chipper would be worth about $30M per year today.
Folks also fail to appreciate just how young Heyward will be, and how much more he can improve. Players simply don't hit FA before age 30 anymore because most teams lock young players like him up through their arb years while also buying out a couple FA years.
Look, I understand not wanting to pay impact player prices for a defense-first corner OFer. I agree that dWAR is way overvalued compared to oWAR (mainly because it assumes defensive additions add indefinitely), but defensive metrics do serve well in ranking players against each other, and in that regard Heyward is undoubtedly elite.
On the flip side, we are talking about a 25 year old guy that is oozing with talent, has already shown he can post a .270 BA with a .350+ OBP, and has flashed 27 HR power. I would say the downside worst case scenario for this player is what he currently is (750-800 OPS with great defense), while the upside is the .900+ OPS bat with elite defense.
Like it or not, players with high floors and talent to dream on for even more production are the most valuable type of players. I would be shocked if Heyward signs for less than $25M per over 8+ years, and I fully expect him to get an opt out clause after 3-4 years so he can hit the FA market again at age 30 and shoot for $30M+ per year for another 8 years.
Folks also fail to appreciate just how young Heyward will be, and how much more he can improve. Players simply don't hit FA before age 30 anymore because most teams lock young players like him up through their arb years while also buying out a couple FA years.
Look, I understand not wanting to pay impact player prices for a defense-first corner OFer. I agree that dWAR is way overvalued compared to oWAR (mainly because it assumes defensive additions add indefinitely), but defensive metrics do serve well in ranking players against each other, and in that regard Heyward is undoubtedly elite.
On the flip side, we are talking about a 25 year old guy that is oozing with talent, has already shown he can post a .270 BA with a .350+ OBP, and has flashed 27 HR power. I would say the downside worst case scenario for this player is what he currently is (750-800 OPS with great defense), while the upside is the .900+ OPS bat with elite defense.
Like it or not, players with high floors and talent to dream on for even more production are the most valuable type of players. I would be shocked if Heyward signs for less than $25M per over 8+ years, and I fully expect him to get an opt out clause after 3-4 years so he can hit the FA market again at age 30 and shoot for $30M+ per year for another 8 years.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Surely you know what "middle-of-the-order" means, and if you want to bat Heyward 3rd as your thumper, be my guest. He is not a great hitter.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I guess Pierzynski and Maybin are legit middle-of-the-order bats.