Implications of the Trade

After thinking it over more, the FO may view us as having two separate windows. I've said that I don't believe our natural window will start opening until 2018. So the FO may be trying to open one from 2016-2019 or so before all of our best talent starts hitting the team.

If Heyward does want to sign a shorter deal in order to hit FA again at 30 or 31, I would go get him for 5 or 6 years. If you can get him for that at $25 million per year or less, I would do it. That would also leave us room to sign a good SP, like a Kazmir to a 4- or 5-year deal. That would give us the following major league pieces:

Freeman - signed through 2021
Simmons - signed through 2020
Heyward - signed through 2020/2021
Peterson - under control through 2020
Olivera - signed through 2020
Bethancourt - under control through 2020
Markakis - signed through 2018
Maybin - signed through 2016/2017

Kazmir - signed through 2019/2020
Teheran - signed through 2020
Wisler - under control through 2020/2021
Miller - signed through 2018

While that may not be one of the top teams in baseball, it's a team that should compete and make a run at a playoff spot for 2016 and 2017. And if our payroll goes up to around 140-150 million by 2017, as I believe it will, you would also have a little more money to play with as well, though guys like Freeman start getting expensive at that point.

But that gives you a pretty clear window through 2020 with the guys already at the major league level, and as other talent starts to come up, like Mallex, Jenkins, Banuelos, possibly Ruiz, etc., you can supplement the roster with cheap options and also potentially make guys like Maybin and Teheran expendable in trades.

Then, as 2020 and 2021 hit, you start freeing up money again while letting these guys go as they hit the age where they should start regressing, and by then we will be in the middle of the Albies-Davidson-Toussaint wave with guys like Allard, Soroka, Riley, Yepez, Maitan, etc. ready to make an impact, which starts the new window with a really young team.

That's not a bad plan, and I hope our FO is seeing something similar.
 
I seriously doubt Heyward signs a deal less than 8 years. I think 8/160 will be the starting point, and escalate from there.

I agree he will want to hit the market again at age 30, so I'm betting he will sign a contract with an opt-out clause after 3-4 years.

That opt-out clause will be the reason he is not a Brave.

I imagine his contract will be around 10/250 with an opt-out after year 4. If he turns into that 900 OPS guy we've all been waiting for, he will sign another deal at age 30 around 8/280. If he doesn't he will play aout the contract and maybe sign another deal at age 36 for like 3/45.
 
Let's just go after Heyward ;)

Markakis LF

Maybin CF

Freeman 1B

Olivera 3B

Heyward RF

Peterson 2B

Simba SS

C-Beth C

Still kind of meh, but hey, we have Jason back! Lol
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Let's just go after Heyward ;)

Markakis LF
Maybin CF
Freeman 1B
Olivera 3B
Heyward RF
Peterson 2B
Simba SS
C-Beth C

Still kind of meh, but hey, we have Jason back! Lol
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The way I look at it is: Would we be better off signing Heyward/Buehrle or Price/Zobrist assuming the combined contracts are about the same and that we have the budget to do something like that. I don't think it is a slam dunk that one of those options is better than the other. So it is an interesting topic to debate. There are other options involving the same expenditures that might be even better.
 
nsacpi said:
The way I look at it is: Would we be better off signing Heyward/Buehrle or Price/Zobrist assuming the combined contracts are about the same and that we have the budget to do something like that. I don't think it is a slam dunk that one of those options is better than the other. So it is an interesting topic to debate. There are other options involving the same expenditures that might be even better.
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If it's just those two options, I'd probably go with the Price/Zobrist combo. But there's a legitimate chance Zobrist becomes worthless in a year or two.
 
I'd say - much like we are rolling the dice with Olivera - I'd say we need to roll the dice on Heyward becoming the impact bat we need.

It's simply impossible to find one anywhere else. So rolling the dice on Heyward is worth it - as he's already probably worth the huge contract and there is the potential to become a top bat as well.

Having said all that, I don't see any scenario where heyward returns after the way we treated him
 
smootness said:
If it's just those two options, I'd probably go with the Price/Zobrist combo. But there's a legitimate chance Zobrist becomes worthless in a year or two.
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I just tacked on Buehrle and Zobrist for illustrative purposes. We can spread out our funds more or less evenly over areas of need or try to make a big splash at a particular position. Obviously, there are lots of factors to be taken into account. Is there a player out there who badly wants to play in Atlanta and is willing to take less? That would make a big difference. Is there a big difference in the markets for pitching versus hitting? How do you plan for that? It is going to be a complicated off-season.
 
nsacpi said:
I just tacked on Buehrle and Zobrist for illustrative purposes. We can spread out our funds more or less evenly over areas of need or try to make a big splash at a particular position. Obviously, there are lots of factors to be taken into account. Is there a player out there who badly wants to play in Atlanta and is willing to take less? That would make a big difference. Is there a big difference in the markets for pitching versus hitting? How do you plan for that? It is going to be a complicated off-season.
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I think it's simply easier to find pitching than hitting... and I'd say hitting is more likely to sustain their success. So if we're throwing a huge contract at someone, I'd rather it be a hitter - especially a 26 year old hitter
 
sturg33 said:
I think it's simply easier to find pitching than hitting... and I'd say hitting is more likely to sustain their success. So if we're throwing a huge contract at someone, I'd rather it be a hitter - especially a 26 year old hitter
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But what if the price of good pitching drops significantly relative to good hitting. Say the going rate for a pitcher is $6M per expected WAR and for a hitter $8M per expected WAR. Do we try to generate more WAR via the pitching staff if that happens?
 
I don't think ace pitchers are easier to find than guys like Heyward (or somewhat comparable). Price is also a proven, consistent difference-maker.

The difference in risks between is Heyward and Olivera is a whole lot of money. We aren't risking much money on Olivera. Hoping Heyward becomes an impact bat at $25MM is a pretty big gamble. I do see it happening at some point, but it's a big gamble.
 
yeezus said:
I don't think ace pitchers are easier to find than guys like Heyward (or somewhat comparable). Price is also a proven, consistent difference-maker.

The difference in risks between is Heyward and Olivera is a whole lot of money. We aren't risking much money on Olivera. Hoping Heyward becomes an impact bat at $25MM is a pretty big gamble. I do see it happening at some point, but it's a big gamble.
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We risked a ton on Olivera. You have to count Wood and Peraza as part of the financial commitment.
 
nsacpi said:
I just tacked on Buehrle and Zobrist for illustrative purposes. We can spread out our funds more or less evenly over areas of need or try to make a big splash at a particular position. Obviously, there are lots of factors to be taken into account. Is there a player out there who badly wants to play in Atlanta and is willing to take less? That would make a big difference. Is there a big difference in the markets for pitching versus hitting? How do you plan for that? It is going to be a complicated off-season.
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I can't think of any FA in recent memory who took less to play in a certain place. I would be shocked if that happened, so we're probably looking at paying top dollar for any player we go after.

It will be interesting to see how the market falls, but I think if we really want to compete in 2016-2017, we're going to have to somehow find at least one really good SP and at least one really good bat.
 
sturg33 said:
I'd say - much like we are rolling the dice with Olivera - I'd say we need to roll the dice on Heyward becoming the impact bat we need.

It's simply impossible to find one anywhere else. So rolling the dice on Heyward is worth it - as he's already probably worth the huge contract and there is the potential to become a top bat as well.

Having said all that, I don't see any scenario where heyward returns after the way we treated him
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HOw exactly did the Braves treat him?
 
thethe said:
Thats treating him poorly?
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Yes, imo.

I know you think the FO walks on water... but a simple phone call is simply a matter of respect. When Hart said we "assumed" we couldn't afford him, then he lost a lot of credibility.

But I recognize you are incapable of any objective thought, so the comment was more for others on the board
 
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