Inferences to Draw from Recent Contracts

[nsacpi]

So what has changed and what hasn't in the aftermath of the Freeman, Heyward, Kimbrel and Teheran deals?

1) 2014 payroll now stands at slightly over 100M if you count signing bonuses and assume Gavin Floyd makes half his incentives. Presumably Wren has kept some powder dry for mid-season deals, which means payroll will end up in the 105-110M range. So 2014 payroll is up.

2) As outlined by Cajun it still looks like 2015 will be a budget crunch. It will be a struggle to keep payroll at 110M or even 115M. It is noteworthy that the 2015 salaries of the four players who have agreed to deals is below what Cajun and others projected, a hint that Wren had the 2015 issue in mind when structuring the contracts.

3) Assuming payroll rises to 120-125M 2017 and beyond, it is now very difficult to see how we retain both Heyward and Justin Upton. It is feasible, but would involve moving another player who will be making a significant salary by 2017. We do have room to keep one of them since after 2015 we will have flexibility due to Medlen, Uggla, Heyward and Justin hitting free agency.

4) It is difficult to draw inferences about how much payroll will rise as we move to the new stadium. The new contracts are not huge relative to a payroll in the 110-120 range. They do not inform us much about what ultimate payroll will be. Comments by Wren and Schuerholz suggest the finances of the new stadium made the deals possible, but I think we could have afforded them even without the move. We have yet to see signings that point to a payroll north of 120M by 2017.

5) The extensions signed by Teheran and Kimbrel will reduce demands placed on the farm system in terms of the amount of pitching it will need to produce. It increases the potential surplus we could trade away. Guys like Graham and Cabrera are more likely to be trade chips now.

6) Unlike others, I thought this team's competitive window would have extended well beyond 2015 even before the signings. The signings will convince some of the pessimists around here of this.

 

[Enscheff]

I think the Heyward extension tells us a little more about Jason's motivations.

If you are the Braves, why in the world would you guarantee a player like Heyward cash during his arb years while getting no extra years of control? The entire benefit of the arbitration process from the team's point of view is that you can cut a player loose if he tanks or gets injured. Now the Braves are stuck paying him for the next 2 years no matter what, AND Heyward still gets to hit FA when he was originally slated to do so. Huge WIN for Heyward.

So how does that contract benefit the Braves? Cost certainty? Doesn't seem worth taking on millions of dollars of risk just so you can write a projected salary number in pen rather than pencil.

Heyward must have told the Braves that he wasn't going to sign long term because he feels like the recent fluke injuries are depressing his value, and he doesn't want to "sell low" on himself. The Braves agree, so they are protecting themselves from Heyward having a breakout year in 2014 thus causing his 2015 arb award to jump substantially. All Heyward's contract did was to potentially save the team some money in 2015, which we all know now is going to be the biggest salary crunch the team has seen since Millwood was traded.

In short, Heyward is going to test the FA waters, and if Wren wants to keep him then he will have to pay full FA market value after the 2015 season.

 

[nsacpi]

I think the Heyward extension tells us a little more about Jason's motivations.

If you are the Braves, why in the world would you guarantee a player like Heyward cash during his arb years while getting no extra years of control? The entire benefit of the arbitration process from the team's point of view is that you can cut a player loose if he tanks or gets injured. Now the Braves are stuck paying him for the next 2 years no matter what, AND Heyward still gets to hit FA when he was originally slated to do so. Huge WIN for Heyward.

So how does that contract benefit the Braves? Cost certainty? Doesn't seem worth taking on millions of dollars of risk just so you can write a projected salary number in pen rather than pencil.

Heyward must have told the Braves that he wasn't going to sign long term because he feels like the recent fluke injuries are depressing his value, and he doesn't want to "sell low" on himself. The Braves agree, so they are protecting themselves from Heyward having a breakout year in 2014 thus causing his 2015 arb award to jump substantially. All Heyward's contract did was to potentially save the team some money in 2015, which we all know now is going to be the biggest salary crunch the team has seen since Millwood was traded.

In short, Heyward is going to test the FA waters, and if Wren wants to keep him then he will have to pay full FA market value after the 2015 season.

In his Sirius interview Wren said he expected Heyward to be a long-term piece of the team. Elsewhere he indicated that there was difficulty reaching agreement with Heyward because his injuries have prevented him from achieving a consistent baseline. The Braves want Heyward to stay. And I believe he wants to play in Atlanta. But there is no guarantee the two parties will be able to bridge their valuation differences. I think Heyward values being on a competitive team very highly. The Freeman, Kimbrel and Teheran deals do have the positive side effect of making it clear this team will be a strong contender beyond 2015.

 

[zitothebrave]

I think the Heyward extension tells us a little more about Jason's motivations.

If you are the Braves, why in the world would you guarantee a player like Heyward cash during his arb years while getting no extra years of control? The entire benefit of the arbitration process from the team's point of view is that you can cut a player loose if he tanks or gets injured. Now the Braves are stuck paying him for the next 2 years no matter what, AND Heyward still gets to hit FA when he was originally slated to do so. Huge WIN for Heyward.

So how does that contract benefit the Braves? Cost certainty? Doesn't seem worth taking on millions of dollars of risk just so you can write a projected salary number in pen rather than pencil.

Heyward must have told the Braves that he wasn't going to sign long term because he feels like the recent fluke injuries are depressing his value, and he doesn't want to "sell low" on himself. The Braves agree, so they are protecting themselves from Heyward having a breakout year in 2014 thus causing his 2015 arb award to jump substantially. All Heyward's contract did was to potentially save the team some money in 2015, which we all know now is going to be the biggest salary crunch the team has seen since Millwood was traded.

In short, Heyward is going to test the FA waters, and if Wren wants to keep him then he will have to pay full FA market value after the 2015 season.

The Braves signed Heyward to the deal they did because it will work out to save the team money, if he sucks this year they weren't gonna cut him and he'd make at least what he's guaranteed next year, if he rocks this year it's a huge savings for us.

Also I couldn't flat out bet on Jason going to FA. He very well may but many here said the same thing about Kimbrel and Freddie, and Wren went and proved them all wrong. It's all about finding what works for the team and player, and I think Jason will find that at some point, but my hunch is the Braves and he are far off right now, they'll reapproach next offseason when they have more of a clue where they're both at.

 

[Heyward]

I think the Heyward extension tells us a little more about Jason's motivations.

If you are the Braves, why in the world would you guarantee a player like Heyward cash during his arb years while getting no extra years of control? The entire benefit of the arbitration process from the team's point of view is that you can cut a player loose if he tanks or gets injured. Now the Braves are stuck paying him for the next 2 years no matter what, AND Heyward still gets to hit FA when he was originally slated to do so. Huge WIN for Heyward.

So how does that contract benefit the Braves? Cost certainty? Doesn't seem worth taking on millions of dollars of risk just so you can write a projected salary number in pen rather than pencil.

Heyward must have told the Braves that he wasn't going to sign long term because he feels like the recent fluke injuries are depressing his value, and he doesn't want to "sell low" on himself. The Braves agree, so they are protecting themselves from Heyward having a breakout year in 2014 thus causing his 2015 arb award to jump substantially. All Heyward's contract did was to potentially save the team some money in 2015, which we all know now is going to be the biggest salary crunch the team has seen since Millwood was traded.

In short, Heyward is going to test the FA waters, and if Wren wants to keep him then he will have to pay full FA market value after the 2015 season.

Wren said yesterday they still hope he's in their long-term plans and a contract for him is complicated (long-term), i would guess they try to sign him to one as long as he doesnt completely suck this year. Whether he signs a long-term deal is another story.

I would bet he'd test FA but i thought Kimbrel would be as good as gone too. With Freeman signed, i think it goes into the 30-35% chance he stays.

And that contract for Heyward is solid for both parties.

Odds are he'll hit FA but we'll see.

 

[nsacpi]

Wren said yesterday they still hope he's in their long-term plans and a contract for him is complicated (long-term), i would guess they try to sign him to one as long as he doesnt completely suck this year. Whether he signs a long-term deal is another story.

I would bet he'd test FA but i thought Kimbrel would be as good as gone too. With Freeman signed, i think it goes into the 30-35% chance he stays.

And that contract for Heyward is solid for both parties.

Odds are he'll hit FA but we'll see.

There is also Justin Upton to consider. I think we'll end up keeping one of Jason and Justin, but not both.

 

[Heyward]

There is also Justin Upton to consider. I think we'll end up keeping one of Jason and Justin, but not both.

I'm not sure how he will age, but yes, they can probably only keep on of JUp or Jason.

Unless payroll jumps to 150 million.

 

[AUTiger7222]

I got $94.4M. Of course that's a lot of guess work on the pre-arb guys like Gattis, Simmons and Wood. Also what is Ramiro Pena's salary? That one was a guess too.

 

[nsacpi]

I got $94.4M. Of course that's a lot of guess work on the pre-arb guys like Gattis, Simmons and Wood. Also what is Ramiro Pena's salary? That one was a guess too.

Pena is about 1M. The others 0.5M. There is a question of whether they count the bonuses (1M each for Heyward, Teheran and Kimbrel, and 2.875M for Freeman) in 2014 or have it prorated over the life of the contract. If you count them against 2014 payrolls we're around 100M.

 

[AUTiger7222]

Pena is about 1M. The others 0.5M. There is a question of whether they count the bonuses (1M each for Heyward, Teheran and Kimbrel, and 2.875M for Freeman) in 2014 or have it prorated over the life of the contract. If you count them against 2014 payrolls we're around 100M.

Ok. Thanks.

 

[jpx7]

I think we'll end up keeping one of Jason and Justin, but not both.

I would have resignedly but wholeheartedly agreed a few weeks ago—and would have bet that Heyward is the one ultimately retained, largely because of his age and the fact that his well-publicized cocaine-addiction keeps him from becoming a fat-ass like Upton—but after the Kimbrel deal I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the Braves found a way to lock both down for a few more years.

 

[cajunrevenge]

I think the braves can keep both Justin and Heyward but they need need to show more consistency before getting 20+ million a year.

With 700 million in extra revenue from the new tv deals salaries are going to inflate. That's why Freeman got so much. That should push the braves to 110-115 million in payroll before the new stadium opens which should also boost payroll.

 

[Julio3000]

I would have resignedly but wholeheartedly agreed a few weeks ago—and would have bet that Heyward is the one ultimately retained, largely because of his age and the fact that his well-publicized cocaine-addiction keeps him from becoming a fat-ass like Upton—but after the Kimbrel deal I honestly wouldn't be shocked if the Braves found a way to lock both down for a few more years.

At least neither one of them smiles too much, because that **** is unacceptable.

Of course, I guess that means they're both sullen, brooding types.

Oh, well. Good riddance to both.

 

[skillet]

There is also Justin Upton to consider. I think we'll end up keeping one of Jason and Justin, but not both.

I tend to agree with this, and I would add that I think Jason is first choice, with Justin second. I think next offseason one of them will be extended, while the other will be gone in FA the following year. By then Gattis might move back out to left to replace whichever one leaves while Bethancourt takes over full time catcher.

 

[50PoundHead]

My only conjecture is that the core of the team, for the most part, is being recognized and Wren wants to keep the core together. Obviously, Heyward fits into the notion of core and they should be able to scare up some dough in a couple of years to lock him in. For this strategy to work, you have to fill in behind the core with guys coming up through the farm system and low-level free agents and the thing that scares me is that we don't have much in terms of offense in the minors right now, especially in the high minors.

 

[nsacpi]

My only conjecture is that the core of the team, for the most part, is being recognized and Wren wants to keep the core together. Obviously, Heyward fits into the notion of core and they should be able to scare up some dough in a couple of years to lock him in. For this strategy to work, you have to fill in behind the core with guys coming up through the farm system and low-level free agents and the thing that scares me is that we don't have much in terms of offense in the minors right now, especially in the high minors.

We can speculate a bit on who the non-core guys are and who might be internal candidates to replace them.

We will need a replacement for Uggla at second. The leading candidates are La Stella and Pastornicky, maybe a platoon of the two. If we have a strong core we can afford something like that batting 8th.

Chris Johnson has three years left before hitting free agency. Candidates to replace him at third include Peraza, Salcedo, Caratini and Kubitza. I think we'll have an acceptable internal replacement.

I don't think we will be able to hold on to both of Heyward and Justin Upton. I think this is the most problematic issue in terms of finding a suitable replacement. Maybe Terdoslavich will provide an upside surprise. Maybe someone will move from a different position. Victor Reyes is out best corner outfield prospect but given his youth, there is a lot of uncertainty about how he is going to turn out. At any rate he won't be ready upon the departure of Jason or Justin.

At center and catcher we have BJ and Gattis. They are under contractual control for four and five years, respectively. Hopefully, BJ rebounds. Otherwise, we will have to find someone else to play center and the internal candidates are a pretty fringy group. I do think the possibility of trading Bethancourt to fill a need at another position is an intriguing idea.

 

[Heyward]

I think we could keep both depending what payroll goes up towards.

But we'd have to go super-cheap at some spots.

3B/2B/C to name a few.

And the bullpen minus Kimbrel.

SP's as well.

Will be tough.

But odds are we can only keep one but i also thought Kimbrel was as good as gone, so.

What about...

C- Bethancourt
1B- Freeman
2B- LaStella
SS- Simmons
3B- Peraza
LF- JUpton
CF- BJ
RF- Heyward

SP- Julio
SP- Minor
SP- Wood
SP- Sims
SP- Cabrera

 

[zitothebrave]

I think we could keep both depending what payroll goes up towards.

But we'd have to go super-cheap at some spots.

3B/2B/C to name a few.

And the bullpen minus Kimbrel.

SP's as well.

Will be tough.

But odds are we can only keep one but i also thought Kimbrel was as good as gone, so.

What about...

C- Bethancourt
1B- Freeman
2B- LaStella
SS- Simmons
3B- Peraza
LF- JUpton
CF- BJ
RF- Heyward

SP- Julio
SP- Minor
SP- Wood
SP- Sims
SP- Cabrera

I think that's overly optimistic. But that would rock haha.

 

[thethe]

Can't have Peraza at 3B. Need his defense at 2B to compensate for the fact he won't have a power bat. If TLS hits well then he might be flipped assuming Peraza progresses.

 

[AUTiger7222]

I think the Braves can keep both Heyward and Justin. Payroll is clearly going up, how much? We don't know yet. But if it goes up into the $125-$130M range then we should be able to keep both. One of them will replace Uggla's AAV and then we had to the payroll a little bit more.