Infield Splits

[nsacpi]

nsacpi said" The OP makes clear I am using career splits and discusses why. The numbers you cited are Walker's 2018 splits."

Since Camargo has played 1+ years(82 games in '17 and 134 in '18)

Albies has played 1+ years(57 games in '17. 158 in '18)

and Swanson 2+ years (38 in '16, 144 in '17 and 136 in '18)

I feel using Walker's '18 stats to be a better comparison than 9 year career stat since the limited career stats for Camamrgo, and Albies are so small of a sample it's not fair to try to compare their career numbers to a 9 year veteran. Especially one who has a roller coaster of certain stats.

That's a fair point regarding the longevity of Walker's career. The best data for figuring out underlying splits for predictive purposes are the most recent 1,500 or so PAs. In the case of the younger guys like Camargo and Albies we have less than that many in the majors. But we have minor league data which basically confirm they both have a strong right handed skew.

With respect to Walker, I would make a few points. Last year he had a miserable first half .563 OPS and pretty good second half .788 OPS. So I don't think he is washed up. The second point I would make is that it probably makes sense to look at his last three years of splits data (covering 1,404 PAs). This is what they show:

2016 1.001 vs lefties and .766 vs righties (as I said you can get a pretty misleading picture from one season)
2017 .610 vs lefties and .854 vs righties
2018 .477 vs lefties and .713 vs righties

A reasonable projection for 2019 is he will give you something in the .750-.800 range against righties and something in the .600-.650 range against lefties. Albies and Camargo would project to something in the .700-.750 range against righties and Swanson .650-.700 against righties. Walker (or Dietrich or Lamb) would be a very good complementary player for this team.

 

[nsacpi]

Has Albies played an inning at SS?

Zero in the majors. I look at how the Dodgers use guys like Taylor and Kike Hernandez and hope the Braves will catch on.

The Yankees used Gleyber Torres as their second baseman but gave him 15 starts at short. Something like that would make sense for Albies. I don't think that would put too much on Ozzie or bruise Swanson's psyche too much. There is also an outside chance that Ozzie turns out to be a much better defensive shortstop than any of us realize.

 

[Enscheff]

That research makes alot of sense, especially when you see the Brewers using Shaw at 2B and the Dodgers using Muncy. The types or players with limited mobility who would never been a thought for those positions in the past.

Modern defensive positioning is also covering up for lack of range on the IF, and in the OF to a lesser extent.

 

[NYCBrave]

Modern defensive positioning is also covering up for lack of range on the IF, and in the OF to a lesser extent.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the game has advanced ALOT in these areas over the past few years. We've always had shifts, but now we're seeing players blatantly playing out of position but being backed up by defensive positioning to limit the damage.