Interesting Note On MLBTR...

smootness said:
The last 3 years, Longoria has been a 3-4.5 WAR player (depending on which site you use), not 4-6 WAR.

BR and Fangraphs vary on Archer as well. Fangraphs has him where you said he is...but BR has him as basically a 2-2.5 WAR player 3 of the last 4 years, with 2015's 4.3 being the aberration. I don't want to add these guys because while they are certainly both good players, and Archer has room left to grow, their value on the open market may be higher than their actual value. We would probably have to give up way too much to acquire them.
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Well I didn't give a 3 year period for Longo... you did. The year before he had over a 6 WAR and he trended back that way last year. I also wasn't saying we should acquire them if we had to give up a whole lot. I was merely refuting the absurd claim that they are overrated which is definitely absurd.
 
zbhargrove said:
Well I didn't give a 3 year period for Longo... you did. The year before he had over a 6 WAR and he trended back that way last year. I also wasn't saying we should acquire them if we had to give up a whole lot. I was merely refuting the absurd claim that they are overrated which is definitely absurd.
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I know I'm the one who gave a 3-year period...because I feel like a 3-year period in which the player is healthy and playing a full season is a pretty good indication of where that player currently is, especially as he passes 30.

I'm not going to look back past 3 years for any player as an indication of where that player's current level is. That makes no sense.

But any player can be overrated. Just because a player is good doesn't mean he can't be overrated. If you think Mike Trout alone would make last year's Braves team the best team in the league, then you are overrating Mike Trout, even though he definitely is the best player in baseball. Well, as PurpleBrave pointed out, if you think Longoria is a 6 WAR player, you are almost certainly overrating him.

And since a lot of the discussion around Longoria on this board seems to value him similarly to that, I think it's fair to call him a little overrated here. Archer may be a tad overrated, but I think the feelings on him have been pretty accurate...a guy with a high ceiling that hasn't hit it yet and has been a good, not great, pitcher so far.
 
smootness said:
I know I'm the one who gave a 3-year period...because I feel like a 3-year period in which the player is healthy and playing a full season is a pretty good indication of where that player currently is, especially as he passes 30.

I'm not going to look back past 3 years for any player as an indication of where that player's current level is. That makes no sense.

But any player can be overrated. Just because a player is good doesn't mean he can't be overrated. If you think Mike Trout alone would make last year's Braves team the best team in the league, then you are overrating Mike Trout, even though he definitely is the best player in baseball. Well, as PurpleBrave pointed out, if you think Longoria is a 6 WAR player, you are almost certainly overrating him.

And since a lot of the discussion around Longoria on this board seems to value him similarly to that, I think it's fair to call him a little overrated here. Archer may be a tad overrated, but I think the feelings on him have been pretty accurate...a guy with a high ceiling that hasn't hit it yet and has been a good, not great, pitcher so far.
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I never said Longo was a 6 WAR player... I said he's a 4-6 WAR player.
 
I like Logan Fosrsythe. If we could swing a deal for Forsythe and Odorizzi I'd be happy. Odorizzi is still my preferred controllable arm via trade...unless we could get Duffy from the Royals and extend him.
 
smootness said:
Yes, and that's not what he's been for 3 years now. Again, you are probably overrating him.
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Actually, it depends on which definition of WAR you use. He's been a 4-6 WAR guy via Fangraphs, but not via BBRef. BBRef is a bit down on his defense, which I don't really agree with given he's above average in UZR/150, fielding percentage, and durability with a good arm. Pretty much splitting hairs, and I don't think he's a 6 WAR guy anymore, but expecting 4 WAR out of him is probably reasonable.
 
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